TotalEnergies SE (TTE): Q1 2026 Earnings Jump +29% YoY Amid Higher Oil Prices
Key Takeaways
- TotalEnergies SE reported adjusted net income of $5.4 billion for Q1 2026, up 29% from Q1 2025 and 41% from Q4 2025.
- Revenue reached $49.5 billion, surpassing consensus estimates around $46.8 billion.
- Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $2.45, beating analyst expectations of approximately $2.00.
- Hydrocarbon production remained stable at 2,553 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (kboe/d), offsetting Middle East disruptions.
- Operating cash flow excluding working capital was $8.6 billion, supporting $0.75 billion in share buybacks and a 5.9% higher interim dividend of €0.90 per share.
- Full-year net investment guidance confirmed at $15 billion.
Earnings Context and Why They Matter
TotalEnergies SE, as a global integrated energy major, has just released its Q1 2026 results against a backdrop of volatile oil markets and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. In my view, the higher Brent crude prices and robust LNG trading have been key drivers here, helping to offset production impacts from those regional conflicts. Investors like us pay close attention to these reports because they reveal how well the company is navigating energy transition challenges, sustaining shareholder returns, and advancing low-carbon investments. With production holding steady and cash generation strong, this quarter highlights the strength of TotalEnergies' diversified operations across oil, gas, refining, and renewables—factors that directly influence its valuation in a commodity-sensitive sector tied to global demand shifts.
Breaking Down the Reported Results
TotalEnergies SE posted impressive Q1 2026 figures, with adjusted net income attributable to shareholders at $5.4 billion—a 29% increase from Q1 2025 and ahead of consensus expectations. Consolidated net income was $5.8 billion. Revenue from sales came in at $49.5 billion, topping analyst forecasts of around $46.8 billion, thanks to elevated hydrocarbon prices and gains in trading.
Adjusted fully-diluted EPS climbed to $2.45, beating estimates near $2.00 and marking a 34% year-over-year gain. Hydrocarbon production stayed flat at 2,553 kboe/d, as a 3% rise in gas output offset a 2% drop in oil and about 100 kboe/d lost to Middle East disruptions. Standout segments included Exploration & Production with adjusted net operating income of $2.6 billion (+5% YoY), Integrated LNG at $1.3 billion (+2% YoY), and Refining & Chemicals at $1.6 billion (x5.3 YoY). Operating cash flow excluding working capital reached $8.6 billion, with gearing at 15.5%.
The company bought back $0.75 billion in shares and increased its interim dividend by 5.9% to €0.90 per share, aiming for a payout ratio above 40% annually. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to gauge how TTE stacks up against industry peers on these metrics.
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Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Shares of TotalEnergies SE (TTE) climbed in early trading after the Q1 release, a clear sign of investor confidence in the earnings beat, solid cash flow, and commitment to growing dividends. The upside was driven by strength in trading, LNG, and refining despite higher oil prices and production challenges. Overall sentiment feels constructive, with eyes now on consistent returns and project execution.
Forward Outlook and What to Watch
TotalEnergies confirmed its full-year 2026 net investments at $15 billion, striking a balance between growth and shareholder payouts. One area I’m watching closely is LNG expansion, such as the resumed Mozambique LNG project, which helps diversify supply.
In Integrated Power, Q1 net production of 11.7 TWh tracks toward the 15 TWh annual target, with plans for positive free cash flow by 2027. Deals like the recent European gas-to-power agreement with EPH are speeding up those integration efforts.
Hydrocarbon price sensitivity is a big factor, potentially spurring more short-cycle investments if prices hold high. Keep an eye on Middle East production recovery, refining margins, and gearing (now 15.5%). Broader items include global LNG demand, renewable additions (8 GW commissioned over the past year), and dividend coverage above 40% payout.
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Momentum Indicator for TTE turns negative, indicating new downward trend
TTE saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on May 13, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 87 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 87 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TTE turned negative on May 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TTE declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 60 cases where TTE's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TTE advanced for three days, in of 372 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
TTE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 334 cases where TTE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 43, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.659) is normal, around the industry mean (1.637). P/E Ratio (13.564) is within average values for comparable stocks, (18.590). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.743) is also within normal values, averaging (1.672). Dividend Yield (0.043) settles around the average of (0.060) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.090) is also within normal values, averaging (1.306).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TTE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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a developer of oil and gas products
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