TotalEnergies SE (TTE): Q1 2026 Earnings Jump +29% YoY Amid Higher Oil Prices
Key Takeaways
- TotalEnergies SE reported adjusted net income of $5.4 billion for Q1 2026, up 29% from Q1 2025 and 41% from Q4 2025.
- Revenue reached $49.5 billion, surpassing consensus estimates around $46.8 billion.
- Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $2.45, beating analyst expectations of approximately $2.00.
- Hydrocarbon production remained stable at 2,553 thousand barrels of oil equivalent per day (kboe/d), offsetting Middle East disruptions.
- Operating cash flow excluding working capital was $8.6 billion, supporting $0.75 billion in share buybacks and a 5.9% higher interim dividend of €0.90 per share.
- Full-year net investment guidance confirmed at $15 billion.
Earnings Context and Why They Matter
TotalEnergies SE, as a global integrated energy major, has just released its Q1 2026 results against a backdrop of volatile oil markets and geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. In my view, the higher Brent crude prices and robust LNG trading have been key drivers here, helping to offset production impacts from those regional conflicts. Investors like us pay close attention to these reports because they reveal how well the company is navigating energy transition challenges, sustaining shareholder returns, and advancing low-carbon investments. With production holding steady and cash generation strong, this quarter highlights the strength of TotalEnergies' diversified operations across oil, gas, refining, and renewables—factors that directly influence its valuation in a commodity-sensitive sector tied to global demand shifts.
Breaking Down the Reported Results
TotalEnergies SE posted impressive Q1 2026 figures, with adjusted net income attributable to shareholders at $5.4 billion—a 29% increase from Q1 2025 and ahead of consensus expectations. Consolidated net income was $5.8 billion. Revenue from sales came in at $49.5 billion, topping analyst forecasts of around $46.8 billion, thanks to elevated hydrocarbon prices and gains in trading.
Adjusted fully-diluted EPS climbed to $2.45, beating estimates near $2.00 and marking a 34% year-over-year gain. Hydrocarbon production stayed flat at 2,553 kboe/d, as a 3% rise in gas output offset a 2% drop in oil and about 100 kboe/d lost to Middle East disruptions. Standout segments included Exploration & Production with adjusted net operating income of $2.6 billion (+5% YoY), Integrated LNG at $1.3 billion (+2% YoY), and Refining & Chemicals at $1.6 billion (x5.3 YoY). Operating cash flow excluding working capital reached $8.6 billion, with gearing at 15.5%.
The company bought back $0.75 billion in shares and increased its interim dividend by 5.9% to €0.90 per share, aiming for a payout ratio above 40% annually. I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to gauge how TTE stacks up against industry peers on these metrics.
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Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
Shares of TotalEnergies SE (TTE) climbed in early trading after the Q1 release, a clear sign of investor confidence in the earnings beat, solid cash flow, and commitment to growing dividends. The upside was driven by strength in trading, LNG, and refining despite higher oil prices and production challenges. Overall sentiment feels constructive, with eyes now on consistent returns and project execution.
Forward Outlook and What to Watch
TotalEnergies confirmed its full-year 2026 net investments at $15 billion, striking a balance between growth and shareholder payouts. One area I’m watching closely is LNG expansion, such as the resumed Mozambique LNG project, which helps diversify supply.
In Integrated Power, Q1 net production of 11.7 TWh tracks toward the 15 TWh annual target, with plans for positive free cash flow by 2027. Deals like the recent European gas-to-power agreement with EPH are speeding up those integration efforts.
Hydrocarbon price sensitivity is a big factor, potentially spurring more short-cycle investments if prices hold high. Keep an eye on Middle East production recovery, refining margins, and gearing (now 15.5%). Broader items include global LNG demand, renewable additions (8 GW commissioned over the past year), and dividend coverage above 40% payout.
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Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
TTE in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on September 29, 2026
TTE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 32 of 42 cases where TTE's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TTE's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 15 of 22 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 37 of 61 cases where TTE's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Following a +2.23% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TTE advanced for three days, in 205 of 380 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 179 of 339 cases where TTE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 53%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 25, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TTE as a result. In 48 of 92 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TTE turned negative on September 18, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 24 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 53%.
TTE moved below its 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TTE crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TTE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 27, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 18 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.554) is normal, around the industry mean (1.887). P/E Ratio (11.307) is within average values for comparable stocks, (16.521). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.816) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088). Dividend Yield (0.044) settles around the average of (0.035) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.013) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. TTE’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
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