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Allana's Avatar
published in Blogs
Apr 16, 2023

Turning Point Brands (TPB, $22.55) increased in a record-breaking daily growth of 206%

Turning Point Brands (TPB) experienced a significant increase in daily volume on April 15, 2023, resulting in a record-breaking daily growth of 206% compared to the 65-Day Volume Moving Average. TPB's total volume rose to 631K, while the price saw an insignificant increase of +1.85%, closing at $22.56.

The surge in volume could indicate a change in trend, and investors may consider it a buy signal. A.I.dvisor, an artificial intelligence platform, found 12 similar cases, with 10 of them resulting in successful outcomes. Based on this data, the odds of success are +83%.

However, investors should be cautious and not rely solely on past trends. It is essential to conduct a thorough analysis of the company's financials, including its earnings results, to make informed decisions.

Turning Point Brands recently reported its Q1 2023 earnings, beating market expectations. The company's revenue rose by 15.7%, from $98.6 million in Q1 2022 to $113.9 million in Q1 2023. The growth was driven by strong performance across all its segments, including Smoking products, NewGen products, and NewGen distribution.

TPB's gross profit increased by 18.2%, from $38.9 million in Q1 2022 to $46.0 million in Q1 2023, while its gross margin rose by 1.2 percentage points to 40.4%. The company's net income also saw a significant increase of 56.5%, from $5.5 million in Q1 2022 to $8.6 million in Q1 2023.

In addition, TPB's operating cash flow increased by 36.5%, from $9.9 million in Q1 2022 to $13.5 million in Q1 2023, indicating a healthy financial position. The company also has a solid balance sheet, with a debt-to-equity ratio of 0.52, indicating a moderate level of debt.

Overall, TPB's earnings results demonstrate strong growth potential, making it an attractive investment opportunity. The surge in volume could be a sign of increasing investor interest in the stock, and if the trend continues, the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.

Turning Point Brands' significant increase in daily volume, resulting in a record-breaking growth of 206%, indicates a potential change in trend and may be a buy signal for investors. However, investors should conduct thorough research and analysis before making any investment decisions.

TPB's Q1 2023 earnings results demonstrate strong growth potential, with revenue and net income increasing significantly. The company also has a healthy financial position, making it an attractive investment opportunity. If the current trend continues, the odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.

Related Ticker: TPB

TPB sees MACD Histogram just turned negative

TPB saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on May 25, 2023. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 43 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 57 cases where TPB's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on May 30, 2023. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TPB as a result. In of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

TPB moved below its 50-day moving average on May 25, 2023 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TPB declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TPB's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 36 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The 10-day moving average for TPB crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 24, 2023. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TPB advanced for three days, in of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

TPB may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 191 cases where TPB Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.117) is normal, around the industry mean (57.698). TPB has a moderately high P/E Ratio (43.668) as compared to the industry average of (17.582). TPB's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is slightly lower than the industry average of (5.265). TPB has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.012) as compared to the industry average of (0.063). P/S Ratio (0.900) is also within normal values, averaging (40.817).

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. TPB’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TPB’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 87, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Philip Morris International (NYSE:PM), Altria Group (NYSE:MO).

Industry description

The industry is engaged in the growth, preparation for sale, advertisement, and distribution of tobacco and tobacco-related products like cigarettes. In 2017, tobacco companies spent an estimated $9.36 billion marketing cigarettes and smokeless tobacco in the U.S. – an amount that translates to more than $25 million each day (according to a CDC report). Philip Morris International Inc., Altria Group Inc., and British American Tobacco plc are some major cigar makers. In recent times, vaping or the use of e-cigarette (does not burn tobacco) is gaining momentum – several established cigarette makers are trying to expand their footprint in this new market.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Tobacco Industry is 17.17B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 160.39K to 140.02B. PM holds the highest valuation in this group at 140.02B. The lowest valued company is VHUB at 160.39K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Tobacco Industry was -2%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 1%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0%. TOBAF experienced the highest price growth at 27%, while HUMBF experienced the biggest fall at -32%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Tobacco Industry was 40%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was 52% and the average quarterly volume growth was -11%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 37
P/E Growth Rating: 63
Price Growth Rating: 58
SMR Rating: 65
Profit Risk Rating: 86
Seasonality Score: 19 (-100 ... +100)
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A.I.Advisor
published price charts
A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a manufacturer of tobacco products

Industry Tobacco

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Tobacco
Address
5201 Interchange Way
Phone
+1 502 778-4421
Employees
413
Web
https://www.turningpointbrands.com
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TPB and

Correlation & Price change

A.I.dvisor tells us that TPB and UVV have been poorly correlated (+32% of the time) for the last year. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is low statistical probability that TPB and UVV's prices will move in lockstep.

1D
1W
1M
1Q
6M
1Y
5Y
Ticker /
NAME
Correlation
To TPB
1D Price
Change %
TPB100%
-1.96%
UVV - TPB
32%
Poorly correlated
-2.14%
VGR - TPB
31%
Poorly correlated
-0.42%
MO - TPB
31%
Poorly correlated
-0.65%
PM - TPB
30%
Poorly correlated
-0.69%
BTI - TPB
29%
Poorly correlated
-0.86%
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