TWLO Market Strategy: Thrive Amid Choppy Markets, 14.92% Upside
Harnessing TWLO's Stochastic Oscillator Climb: A Market Neutral Strategy Insight
In the realm of market trading, it's the ability to meticulously analyze trends and make informed decisions that distinguish the successful trader. An intriguing instance of this dynamic recently occurred with TWLO (Twilio Inc.). On July 5, 2023, TWLO's Stochastic Oscillator climbed out of the oversold territory, indicating a potential bullish sign for the stock.
The Stochastic Oscillator is a momentum indicator that demonstrates the location of a stock's price in relation to its range over a certain period of time. For TWLO, this exit from oversold territory could present an enticing opportunity for traders to potentially buy the stock or buy call options, betting on the stock's upward trajectory.
This phenomenon was meticulously observed and analyzed by Tickeron's A.I.dvisor. Tickeron's sophisticated artificial intelligence tool examined 58 past instances where the Stochastic Oscillator for TWLO departed from the oversold zone. It found that in 48 of these 58 cases, the stock experienced an upward movement in the days following the shift. This compelling statistic suggests an over 83% likelihood of a price increase following this shift.
However, while this probability might be tempting, investors should not overlook the importance of a holistic approach to decision-making. It's critical to consider both technical analysis (TA) and fundamental analysis (FA). Technical analysis, like the Stochastic Oscillator analysis performed by Tickeron's A.I.dvisor, provides insights into price patterns and market trends. On the other hand, fundamental analysis allows investors to evaluate a company's intrinsic value by examining related economic and financial factors.
TWLO's recent market performance has certainly been impressive, realizing a gain of 14.92% under a market-neutral strategy. This strategy seeks to avoid broad market risks by being equally long and short in different stocks within the same sector, creating a hedge against market movements.
The current market scenario and historical data on TWLO's performance seem to align in favor of a potentially profitable outcome. However, investors must remember that past performance does not guarantee future results. It's always crucial to factor in both TA and FA, remain adaptable, and consistently evaluate market conditions when making trading decisions.
TWLO in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on September 15, 2023
TWLO moved below its 50-day moving average on September 15, 2023 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In of 31 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 15, 2023. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on TWLO as a result. In of 85 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for TWLO turned negative on September 18, 2023. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
The 10-day moving average for TWLO crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 25, 2023. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 10 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TWLO declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where TWLO's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 35 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TWLO advanced for three days, in of 328 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
TWLO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 210 cases where TWLO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. TWLO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.076) is normal, around the industry mean (17.316). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (41.697). TWLO's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (28.154) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.542). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.025) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.702) is also within normal values, averaging (8.578).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. TWLO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock worse than average.
Notable companies
Industry description
Market Cap
High and low price notable news
Volume
Fundamental Analysis Ratings
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
General Information
a provider of cloud-based communications platform
Industry InternetSoftwareServices
TWLO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TWLO has been loosely correlated with YELP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 59% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if TWLO jumps, then YELP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TWLO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TWLO | 100% | -1.30% | ||
| YELP - TWLO | 59% Loosely correlated | +1.49% | ||
| CARG - TWLO | 47% Loosely correlated | -0.40% | ||
| ZG - TWLO | 46% Loosely correlated | +0.32% | ||
| FVRR - TWLO | 45% Loosely correlated | -0.82% | ||
| Z - TWLO | 45% Loosely correlated | +0.53% | ||
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