Two Companies Benefitting from the Work-From-Home Economy Report in the Week Ahead
A number of companies have seen their stock prices soar as demand for their services or products increased due to people staying at home. These aren’t unscrupulous companies that are taking advantage of the situation, it’s just a situation where the products they offer are in greater demand. Some of the companies offer products that make it easier for people to work from home. Others offer services that offer entertainment at home or make it easier to shop from home.
Two companies that have seen a boost in business since stay at home orders were issued are Netflix (Nasdaq: NFLX) and eBay (Nasdaq: EBAY). Netflix has seen its stock rise approximately 60% from the March low. eBay’s stock is up over 125% from its low in March. Both companies are set to report second quarter earnings in the next few weeks and both companies are expected to show significant increases in earnings per share when compared to the previous year.
Netflix is expected to report earnings results on July 16. The current EPS estimate is at $1.81 and that is more than three times higher than the second quarter of 2019. In the second quarter of 2019 the company reported EPS of $0.60. In addition to the estimate being considerably higher than last year’s results, analysts have increased the EPS estimate. The current consensus estimate is for EPS of $1.81 and it was $1.53 just 90 days ago.
eBay is set to report on July 28 and it has also seen a big jump in its EPS estimate over the last 90 days. The current consensus estimate is for earnings per share of $1.05. 90 days ago the estimate was for EPS of $0.70. That is a 50% increase in the estimate and it is 54.4% higher than the $0.68 the company reported in the second quarter of last year.
Looking at the two companies on Tickeron’s platform, we see that both companies score very well in a number of categories. Both companies are ranked as “strong buys” on the Scorecard. eBay shows strong results in both the fundamental and technical analysis categories while Netflix shows better results on the technical side than it does on the fundamental side.
If we look at the fundamental analysis screener, we see that Netflix is overvalued at this time and it gets poor scores in its P/E Growth Rating and its Seasonality Score. eBay’s only negative mark is the P/E Growth Rating.
Netflix is trading at a trailing P/E ratio of 86.4 currently and the forward P/E is at 69.4. Those figures are contributing factors in the Valuation Rating being in the overvalued category. Despite the huge run up in the stock, eBay’s trailing P/E ratio is only 26.3 and its forward P/E is at 17.7.
Turning our attention to the technical analysis screener, both companies received bullish signals from the Aroon Indicator on July 9. Both have also received bullish signals from the MACD and Momentum Indicators in the last few weeks. Netflix got an additional bullish signal from its moving averages in mid-June.
Both stocks are overbought based on the stochastic indicators and the RSI indicator. Given the huge rallies both stocks have experienced in the last four months, that isn’t surprising.
The Tickeron Screener looks at the daily stochastics and the daily RSI indicator, but if you look more long term and use the weekly overbought/oversold indicators you would get a little bit of a mixed result. The weekly chart for Netflix shows that the weekly stochastic indicators are in overbought territory, but the RSI isn’t. For eBay, it’s a different story. With the stock jumping over 125% in approximately four months, both the weekly RSI and the stochastic indicators are in overbought territory. In fact, the 10-week RSI is the highest it has been since the fourth quarter of 2010.
Overall both Netflix and eBay look good as long-term investments, but the current overbought levels on the daily and weekly charts could be a sign that right now isn’t the time to buy. You also have to consider how much the hurdle has been raised for the upcoming earnings reports. Expectations appear to be extremely high at this time and that can make it difficult for the stocks, regardless of whether they beat estimates or not.
Aroon Indicator for NFLX shows an upward move is likely
NFLX's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on April 17, 2024. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 286 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In of the 286 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where NFLX's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 22 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
NFLX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on April 17, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NFLX as a result. In of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
NFLX moved below its 50-day moving average on April 19, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NFLX crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on April 23, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NFLX declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NFLX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (12.920) is normal, around the industry mean (5.464). P/E Ratio (51.065) is within average values for comparable stocks, (87.119). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.889) is also within normal values, averaging (2.822). NFLX has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.040). P/S Ratio (8.190) is also within normal values, averaging (28.528).
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a provider of online movie rental subscription services
Industry MoviesEntertainment