U.S. factory activity at two-and-a-half year low
U.S. manufacturing activity slowed to a 2-1/2-year low in April as new orders dropped while construction spending unexpectedly fell in March, suggesting economic growth was moderating after surging in the first quarter.
One of the reports from the Institute for Supply Management (ISM) showed businesses increasingly anxious that President Donald Trump’s threats to close the U.S.-Mexico boarder would further disrupt the supply chain. The Federal Reserve kept U.S. interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, noting solid economic growth in the first quarter, and also holding out hope that inflation will rise toward the U.S. central bank’s 2% target.
SPY sees its 50-day moving average cross bullishly above its 200-day moving average
The 50-day moving average for SPY moved above the 200-day moving average on June 27, 2025. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for SPY just turned positive on June 26, 2025. Looking at past instances where SPY's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where SPY advanced for three days, in of 365 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 432 cases where SPY Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for SPY moved out of overbought territory on July 11, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 45 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 11 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where SPY declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
SPY broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 26, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
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