U.S. Tops Russia to Become the World’s Biggest Oil Producer
According to the monthly report issued by the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA), the U.S.’s total output for the month of August stood at record 11.346 million barrels a day compared to Russia’s 11.21 million. With these figures the U.S. now surpasses Russia to claim the title of world’s top oil producer, with the largest year-on-year output increase in U.S. history.
U.S. oil supply in August increased by 2.1 million barrels. According to the EIA, it’s the largest recorded increase in data since 1920. A 48% rally in oil prices in recent months saw the oil companies of Texas, Colorado and other states pump up their shale drilling to boost production. The U.S. Gulf of Mexico clocked record production during the month, as did New Mexico, which has benefited from massive growth in the Permian Basin.
For the U.S., the title of world’s biggest oil producer was extremely short-lived however, as Russia regained the title in September by producing 11.37 million barrels a day. With pledge to pump in more oil to offset declines in Venezuela and plug any supply shortfalls from U.S. sanctions on Iran, Russia is expected to hold the top spot for some time.
Although production has slowed a little in recent times as U.S. drillers wait for new pipelines to come up in the Permian Basin in 2019 and 2020, the industry expects the nation’s output to reach ~16.5 million barrels a day by 2030 -- even if oil is at $55 a barrel.
Perhaps as a result of the production boom, oil capped its worst month in October in more than two years, falling 1.3% in New York Wednesday to $65.31 a barrel.
XOM in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on June 13, 2025
The 10-day moving average for XOM crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on June 13, 2025. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 62 cases where XOM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
XOM moved above its 50-day moving average on June 10, 2025 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XOM advanced for three days, in of 343 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 296 cases where XOM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for XOM moved out of overbought territory on June 23, 2025. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 44 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on June 27, 2025. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on XOM as a result. In of 93 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for XOM turned negative on June 27, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XOM declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
XOM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on June 10, 2025. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 53, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. XOM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: XOM's P/B Ratio (2.267) is slightly higher than the industry average of (1.194). P/E Ratio (13.160) is within average values for comparable stocks, (24.146). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (6.848) is also within normal values, averaging (4.841). Dividend Yield (0.032) settles around the average of (0.111) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.416) is also within normal values, averaging (0.975).
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General Information
a distributer of crude oil, natural gas and petroleum products
Industry IntegratedOil
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