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Jun 04, 2019

U.S. Transportation Department likely to approve joint venture between American Airlines (AAL, $28.82) and Qantas Airways

The U.S Transportation Department is likely to allow a tentative agreement for a joint venture between American Airlines and Qantas Airways as well as granting antitrust immunity. The order is likely to include conditions to protect competition and allow for government oversight of the venture.

Earlier in 2016 during the Obama administration, the same application intended to cover U.S, Australia, and New Zealand was rejected over opposition from rival carriers like Hawaiian Airlines Inc and JetBlue Airways Corp (JBLU).

But this time the airlines have made a compelling case that included strong arguments in favor of coordination of price and schedules and unlocking of up to $310 million annually in consumer benefits. The application even threatened to cancel services, between Sydney and Dallas for Qantas and Los Angeles, Sydney and Auckland for American Airlines, if it was rejected.

The revised application also factored in the code sharing facility with other carriers, a process in which multiple publish and advertise a single flight under their own airline number. This leads to a reduction in prices and an improvement in service quality. The application argued that the joint venture has the potential to generate up to 180,000 new trips between the United States and Australia and New Zealand annually.

New routes for Qantas could include non-stop flights from Brisbane to Chicago, Dallas or Seattle.

Related Ticker: AAL

Aroon Indicator for AAL shows an upward move is likely

AAL's Aroon Indicator triggered a bullish signal on December 11, 2024. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor detected that the AroonUp green line is above 70 while the AroonDown red line is below 30. When the up indicator moves above 70 and the down indicator remains below 30, it is a sign that the stock could be setting up for a bullish move. Traders may want to buy the stock or look to buy calls options. A.I.dvisor looked at 200 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator showed a similar pattern. In of the 200 cases, the stock moved higher in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a move higher at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AAL just turned positive on December 05, 2024. Looking at past instances where AAL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The 50-day moving average for AAL moved above the 200-day moving average on November 22, 2024. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AAL advanced for three days, in of 282 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.

AAL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on December 05, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. AAL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.000) is normal, around the industry mean (3.832). P/E Ratio (35.429) is within average values for comparable stocks, (41.336). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.200) is also within normal values, averaging (0.865). AAL has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.038). P/S Ratio (0.187) is also within normal values, averaging (1.450).

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AAL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 93, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL), United Airlines Holdings (NASDAQ:UAL), Southwest Airlines Co (NYSE:LUV), American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL), JetBlue Airways Corp (NASDAQ:JBLU).

Industry description

Airlines industry comprises passenger air transportation, including scheduled and non-scheduled routes. This can include charter airlines, as well as regular commuter ones. Discount pricing and the rise of low-cost carriers over recent decades have expanded the industry by making its services accessible to a much larger global population, compared to the older days when airline travel was a relative luxury for many people in the world. Delta Air Lines Inc., Southwest Airlines Co and United Continental Holdings, Inc. are some of the airlines with the largest stock market capitalizations in the U.S.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Airlines Industry is 6.88B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 9.36K to 42.44B. DAL holds the highest valuation in this group at 42.44B. The lowest valued company is KLMR at 9.36K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Airlines Industry was -0%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 5%, and the average quarterly price growth was 11%. CHKIF experienced the highest price growth at 22%, while AIABF experienced the biggest fall at -25%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Airlines Industry was -1%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -12% and the average quarterly volume growth was -18%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 60
P/E Growth Rating: 54
Price Growth Rating: 52
SMR Rating: 65
Profit Risk Rating: 92
Seasonality Score: 30 (-100 ... +100)
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AAL
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General Information

a provider of air transportation services for passengers and cargo

Industry Airlines

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Airlines
Address
1 Skyview Drive
Phone
+1 682 278-9000
Employees
132100
Web
https://www.aa.com
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