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Jun 04, 2019

U.S. Transportation Department likely to approve joint venture between American Airlines (AAL, $28.82) and Qantas Airways

The U.S Transportation Department is likely to allow a tentative agreement for a joint venture between American Airlines and Qantas Airways as well as granting antitrust immunity. The order is likely to include conditions to protect competition and allow for government oversight of the venture.

Earlier in 2016 during the Obama administration, the same application intended to cover U.S, Australia, and New Zealand was rejected over opposition from rival carriers like Hawaiian Airlines Inc and JetBlue Airways Corp (JBLU).

But this time the airlines have made a compelling case that included strong arguments in favor of coordination of price and schedules and unlocking of up to $310 million annually in consumer benefits. The application even threatened to cancel services, between Sydney and Dallas for Qantas and Los Angeles, Sydney and Auckland for American Airlines, if it was rejected.

The revised application also factored in the code sharing facility with other carriers, a process in which multiple publish and advertise a single flight under their own airline number. This leads to a reduction in prices and an improvement in service quality. The application argued that the joint venture has the potential to generate up to 180,000 new trips between the United States and Australia and New Zealand annually.

New routes for Qantas could include non-stop flights from Brisbane to Chicago, Dallas or Seattle.

Related Ticker: AAL

AAL saw its Stochastic Oscillator recovers from the overbought zone

The Stochastic Oscillator for AAL moved out of overbought territory on May 17, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock and investors may want to consider selling or taking a defensive position. A.I.dvisor looked at 54 similar instances where the indicator exited the overbought zone. In of the 54 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bearish Trend Analysis

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AAL declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

AAL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on May 13, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Bullish Trend Analysis

The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AAL's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, of 34 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on May 06, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on AAL as a result. In of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AAL just turned positive on April 19, 2024. Looking at past instances where AAL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

AAL moved above its 50-day moving average on May 08, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.

The 10-day moving average for AAL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on May 14, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AAL advanced for three days, in of 292 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 178 cases where AAL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

Fear & Greed

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AAL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.000) is normal, around the industry mean (16.446). P/E Ratio (20.746) is within average values for comparable stocks, (52.381). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.304) is also within normal values, averaging (0.754). AAL has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.030). P/S Ratio (0.199) is also within normal values, averaging (2.158).

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AAL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Delta Air Lines (NYSE:DAL), United Airlines Holdings (NASDAQ:UAL), Southwest Airlines Co (NYSE:LUV), American Airlines Group (NASDAQ:AAL), JetBlue Airways Corp (NASDAQ:JBLU).

Industry description

Airlines industry comprises passenger air transportation, including scheduled and non-scheduled routes. This can include charter airlines, as well as regular commuter ones. Discount pricing and the rise of low-cost carriers over recent decades have expanded the industry by making its services accessible to a much larger global population, compared to the older days when airline travel was a relative luxury for many people in the world. Delta Air Lines Inc., Southwest Airlines Co and United Continental Holdings, Inc. are some of the airlines with the largest stock market capitalizations in the U.S.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Airlines Industry is 5.94B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 9.36K to 34.01B. DAL holds the highest valuation in this group at 34.01B. The lowest valued company is KLMR at 9.36K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Airlines Industry was 4%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 17%, and the average quarterly price growth was 98%. CAJTF experienced the highest price growth at 181%, while SRFM experienced the biggest fall at -7%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Airlines Industry was 13%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -64% and the average quarterly volume growth was -38%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 59
P/E Growth Rating: 68
Price Growth Rating: 56
SMR Rating: 74
Profit Risk Rating: 93
Seasonality Score: 22 (-100 ... +100)
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AALDaily Signal changed days agoGain/Loss if shorted
 
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A.I.Advisor
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A.I. Advisor
published General Information

General Information

a provider of air transportation services for passengers and cargo

Industry Airlines

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Airlines
Address
1 Skyview Drive
Phone
+1 682 278-9000
Employees
132100
Web
https://www.aa.com
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