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Sergey Savastiouk's Avatar
published in Blogs
Mar 11, 2022

Ulta Beauty (ULTA, $379.37) beats fiscal Q4 expectations

Ulta Beauty posted its fiscal fourth-quarter 2021 results, with earnings and revenue both exceeding  the Zacks Consensus Estimate.

The beauty and cosmetics company’s earnings came in at $5.41 a share, well above the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $4.61. The figure is also substantially higher than the year-ago quarter’s $3.41.

Net sales climbed +24.1% from the year-ago quarter to $2,729.4 million, beating  the Zacks Consensus Estimate of $2,703.4 million. Revenue got a significant boost from tailwinds related to solid consumer confidence and looser pandemic-induced restrictions.

Comps climbed +21.4% vs. a decrease of  -4.8% in the prior-year quarter. There was a 10.4% increase in transactions on the back of on double-digit growth in-store traffic . The 9.9% increase in average tickets gained from increased higher average selling price and units per transaction.

Related Ticker: ULTA

ULTA in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 28, 2024

ULTA moved above its 50-day moving average on October 28, 2024 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In of 51 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2024. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ULTA as a result. In of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ULTA just turned positive on October 28, 2024. Looking at past instances where ULTA's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ULTA advanced for three days, in of 341 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .

Bearish Trend Analysis

The 10-day RSI Indicator for ULTA moved out of overbought territory on September 23, 2024. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 45 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .

The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.

The 10-day moving average for ULTA crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 15, 2024. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ULTA declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .

ULTA broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 28, 2024. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

The Aroon Indicator for ULTA entered a downward trend on October 25, 2024. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Seasonality Score of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock slightly better than average.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. ULTA’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (11.198) is normal, around the industry mean (12.064). P/E Ratio (20.314) is within average values for comparable stocks, (36.044). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.047) is also within normal values, averaging (2.650). ULTA has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.034). P/S Ratio (2.340) is also within normal values, averaging (18.679).

Notable companies

The most notable companies in this group are Home Depot (null:HD), Lowe's Companies (null:LOW), AutoZone (null:AZO), Tractor Supply Company (null:TSCO), Ulta Beauty (null:ULTA), Best Buy Company (null:BBY), Bath & Body Works (null:BBWI), Five Below (null:FIVE), RH (null:RH), Advance Auto Parts (null:AAP).

Industry description

The specialty stores sector includes companies dedicated to the sale of retail products focused on a single product category, such as clothing, carpet, books, or office supplies. A specialty store could face intense competition from big-box departmental chains, and therefore offering an adequate collection of the product type it specializes in is key in maintaining/growing its market.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Specialty Stores Industry is 8.67B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 4.65K to 380.15B. HD holds the highest valuation in this group at 380.15B. The lowest valued company is SIMPQ at 4.65K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Specialty Stores Industry was -0%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 10%, and the average quarterly price growth was 7%. CANG experienced the highest price growth at 42%, while KXIN experienced the biggest fall at -55%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Specialty Stores Industry was 15%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -35% and the average quarterly volume growth was 0%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 46
P/E Growth Rating: 55
Price Growth Rating: 56
SMR Rating: 69
Profit Risk Rating: 74
Seasonality Score: 30 (-100 ... +100)
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ULTA
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published General Information

General Information

a company that retails cosmetics and other personal care products

Industry SpecialtyStores

Profile
Fundamentals
Details
Industry
Specialty Stores
Address
1000 Remington Boulevard
Phone
+1 630 410-4800
Employees
56000
Web
https://www.ulta.com
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