UPS (UPS) Q1 2026 Earnings: Beats on Revenue and EPS, But Shares Dip on Steady Guidance
Key Takeaways
- United Parcel Service reported Q1 2026 revenue of $21.2 billion, surpassing consensus estimates of approximately $21.0 billion.
- Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.07, beating expectations around $1.04.
- Cost-saving initiatives delivered $600 million in savings during the quarter, supporting improved margins.
- Full-year 2026 guidance reaffirmed at $89.7 billion in revenue and 9.6% adjusted operating margin.
- U.S. Domestic revenue per piece rose 6.5%, while International increased 10.7%.
- Shares dipped post-earnings amid unchanged guidance despite the results beat.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
I’ve been following UPS closely as it navigates challenges like slowing e-commerce growth and rising labor costs from recent union agreements. The Q1 2026 earnings offer a clear view into how well its "Efficiency Reimagined" and network reconfiguration efforts are holding up against competitors like FedEx and Amazon. From what I see, investors are particularly interested in whether volumes are stabilizing and margins are recovering, as these factors will shape confidence in UPS's strategy through economic uncertainty. Strong pricing discipline and cost controls stand out as potential drivers for profitability in this tough freight market.
Reported Results
For the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, UPS posted consolidated revenue of $21.2 billion, coming in ahead of the analyst consensus around $21.0 billion. This marked a modest year-over-year decline, with lower volumes balanced by solid pricing improvements.
GAAP operating profit was $1.27 billion, while adjusted operating profit reached $1.32 billion. GAAP diluted EPS stood at $1.02, and adjusted EPS hit $1.07, surpassing forecasts of $1.03 to $1.06.
Breaking it down by segment, U.S. Domestic Package revenue was $14.125 billion (adjusted, down 2.3% YoY) with adjusted operating profit of $515 million; International Package revenue came in at $4.540 billion (up 3.8%) and profit of $547 million; Supply Chain Solutions revenue was $2.537 billion (down 6.5%) with profit of $205 million. Revenue per piece growth was notable across segments, highlighting pricing strength despite softer demand. I also checked these figures against peers using Tickeron’s AI Screener for some additional context.
Full-year 2026 guidance remains unchanged, projecting revenue of approximately $89.7 billion and an adjusted operating margin of 9.6%.
AI Screener
One tool I turn to regularly in my analysis is Tickeron’s AI Screener, which lets me scan thousands of stocks and ETFs based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI signals. It’s particularly useful for filtering by industry, market cap, indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics to spot trade ideas, breakouts, or opportunities faster than manual methods. In reviewing UPS, it helped confirm how it stacks up in the logistics space. If you’re looking to streamline your research, it’s worth exploring.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
UPS shares pulled back after the Q1 release, giving up initial gains even with the revenue and EPS beats. The market seemed focused on the absence of upward guidance revisions, alongside ongoing volume softness in major segments. Leading into earnings, sentiment was tempered, with emphasis on cost-saving advancements amid sector-wide logistics pressures.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, I’m watching UPS’s cost-saving programs closely—they generated $600 million in Q1 savings, on track for $3 billion in 2026. Initiatives like Network Reconfiguration and Efficiency Reimagined are key to countering wage pressures and hitting that 9.6% adjusted operating margin target.
Volume recovery will be crucial, especially in U.S. Domestic and Supply Chain Solutions where declines continued. Pricing resilience, like the double-digit international revenue per piece gains, provides some protection, but e-commerce and B2B shipping demand needs to rebound for the projected Q2 growth.
Key items on my radar include updates on program-related costs (around $1.3-$1.5 billion, excluded from adjusted metrics) and capex near $3.0 billion. External factors such as fuel prices, labor dynamics, and global trade will also play a role. UPS expects revenue and profit growth to resume in Q2 2026.
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Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
UPS's Stochastic Oscillator is staying in oversold zone for 12 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where UPS's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 16 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Following a +2.39% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UPS advanced for three days, in 202 of 320 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
UPS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 08, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on UPS as a result. In 50 of 99 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for UPS turned negative on September 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 23 of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 52%.
The 50-day moving average for UPS moved below the 200-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UPS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 52%.
The Aroon Indicator for UPS entered a downward trend on October 06, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 5 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.322) is normal, around the industry mean (3.756). P/E Ratio (17.519) is within average values for comparable stocks, (222.905). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.340) is also within normal values, averaging (5.110). UPS's Dividend Yield (0.070) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.013). P/S Ratio (0.935) is also within normal values, averaging (2.034).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 14 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. UPS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. UPS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 89, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a provider of global package delivery and supply chain management solutions
Industry OtherTransportation
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