UPS (UPS) Q1 2026 Earnings: Beats on Revenue and EPS, But Shares Dip on Steady Guidance
Key Takeaways
- United Parcel Service reported Q1 2026 revenue of $21.2 billion, surpassing consensus estimates of approximately $21.0 billion.
- Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $1.07, beating expectations around $1.04.
- Cost-saving initiatives delivered $600 million in savings during the quarter, supporting improved margins.
- Full-year 2026 guidance reaffirmed at $89.7 billion in revenue and 9.6% adjusted operating margin.
- U.S. Domestic revenue per piece rose 6.5%, while International increased 10.7%.
- Shares dipped post-earnings amid unchanged guidance despite the results beat.
Earnings Context and Why It Matters
I’ve been following UPS closely as it navigates challenges like slowing e-commerce growth and rising labor costs from recent union agreements. The Q1 2026 earnings offer a clear view into how well its "Efficiency Reimagined" and network reconfiguration efforts are holding up against competitors like FedEx and Amazon. From what I see, investors are particularly interested in whether volumes are stabilizing and margins are recovering, as these factors will shape confidence in UPS's strategy through economic uncertainty. Strong pricing discipline and cost controls stand out as potential drivers for profitability in this tough freight market.
Reported Results
For the first quarter ended March 31, 2026, UPS posted consolidated revenue of $21.2 billion, coming in ahead of the analyst consensus around $21.0 billion. This marked a modest year-over-year decline, with lower volumes balanced by solid pricing improvements.
GAAP operating profit was $1.27 billion, while adjusted operating profit reached $1.32 billion. GAAP diluted EPS stood at $1.02, and adjusted EPS hit $1.07, surpassing forecasts of $1.03 to $1.06.
Breaking it down by segment, U.S. Domestic Package revenue was $14.125 billion (adjusted, down 2.3% YoY) with adjusted operating profit of $515 million; International Package revenue came in at $4.540 billion (up 3.8%) and profit of $547 million; Supply Chain Solutions revenue was $2.537 billion (down 6.5%) with profit of $205 million. Revenue per piece growth was notable across segments, highlighting pricing strength despite softer demand. I also checked these figures against peers using Tickeron’s AI Screener for some additional context.
Full-year 2026 guidance remains unchanged, projecting revenue of approximately $89.7 billion and an adjusted operating margin of 9.6%.
AI Screener
One tool I turn to regularly in my analysis is Tickeron’s AI Screener, which lets me scan thousands of stocks and ETFs based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI signals. It’s particularly useful for filtering by industry, market cap, indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics to spot trade ideas, breakouts, or opportunities faster than manual methods. In reviewing UPS, it helped confirm how it stacks up in the logistics space. If you’re looking to streamline your research, it’s worth exploring.
Market Reaction and Investor Sentiment
UPS shares pulled back after the Q1 release, giving up initial gains even with the revenue and EPS beats. The market seemed focused on the absence of upward guidance revisions, alongside ongoing volume softness in major segments. Leading into earnings, sentiment was tempered, with emphasis on cost-saving advancements amid sector-wide logistics pressures.
Forward Outlook and Key Factors to Monitor
Looking ahead, I’m watching UPS’s cost-saving programs closely—they generated $600 million in Q1 savings, on track for $3 billion in 2026. Initiatives like Network Reconfiguration and Efficiency Reimagined are key to countering wage pressures and hitting that 9.6% adjusted operating margin target.
Volume recovery will be crucial, especially in U.S. Domestic and Supply Chain Solutions where declines continued. Pricing resilience, like the double-digit international revenue per piece gains, provides some protection, but e-commerce and B2B shipping demand needs to rebound for the projected Q2 growth.
Key items on my radar include updates on program-related costs (around $1.3-$1.5 billion, excluded from adjusted metrics) and capex near $3.0 billion. External factors such as fuel prices, labor dynamics, and global trade will also play a role. UPS expects revenue and profit growth to resume in Q2 2026.
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Financial writer and active order flow futures trader with a focus on fundamental analysis, macroeconomic factors, and equity research. I make in-depth blogs on stocks and ETFs, bridging the gap between raw market data and real-world trading decisions.
UPS's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for UPS entered a downward trend on August 18, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 175 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In of the 175 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for UPS moved out of overbought territory on July 20, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In of the 32 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on August 21, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on UPS as a result. In of 100 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for UPS turned negative on July 24, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at .
UPS moved below its 50-day moving average on August 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for UPS crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on August 05, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UPS declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. of 59 cases where UPS's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are .
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UPS advanced for three days, in of 322 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
UPS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.760) is normal, around the industry mean (3.548). P/E Ratio (18.961) is within average values for comparable stocks, (200.306). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.588) is also within normal values, averaging (1.823). UPS's Dividend Yield (0.064) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.020). P/S Ratio (0.965) is also within normal values, averaging (2.317).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. UPS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. UPS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock worse than average.
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General Information
a provider of global package delivery and supply chain management solutions
Industry OtherTransportation
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