USO ETF's Strong Uptrend Continues: +15% Monthly Gains and Bullish Signals
Key Takeaways
- The USO ETF remains in a strong uptrend, with price action showing a sharp recovery from mid-April lows around $116 and recent gains exceeding 15% over the past month.
- Price trades well above key moving averages, including the 50-day SMA near $113 and 200-day SMA around $83, signaling robust bullish momentum.
- Momentum indicators are mostly neutral to bullish, with RSI(14) at approximately 64-70 and MACD showing positive levels around 3-5, though some overbought signals in Stochastic.
- Immediate support cluster at $136-138, with resistance near $140-144; classic pivots highlight $139 as a key pivot point.
- Overall technical summary leans strong buy, driven by moving averages, amid potential short-term pullbacks mirroring crude oil dynamics.
Trend Analysis
From what I see on the chart, the United States Oil Fund (USO) ETF displays a clear bullish trend structure over recent months. Price has surged more than 100% year-over-year, reflecting sustained upward momentum tied to oil market dynamics. In the last 30 days, USO rebounded sharply from a low near $116 in mid-April, posting consistent gains and weekly advances of over 10%. This recovery has maintained the uptrend channel, with higher highs and higher lows intact on daily timeframes. While some short-term corrections akin to crude oil pullbacks are possible, the prevailing structure supports continuation above key trendline supports.
Support and Resistance Levels
One thing that stands out for me is how traders are closely monitoring pivot-derived levels on the USO chart. Classic pivot points place the central pivot around $139, with first support (S1) at $138 and second support (S2) near $137. Deeper supports align at $136.50 (S3) and prior swing lows around $118-122. Resistance begins at R1 ($140), extending to R2 ($141) and R3 ($141-144). Recent price action has tested these upper levels, with intraday highs approaching $144-146, suggesting potential consolidation or breakout zones. Accumulated volume supports near $129 add confluence for downside protection.
Moving Averages
The moving averages provide a strong bullish alignment for USO, and I also checked this using Tickeron’s AI Screener to see how it stacks up against peers. All major simple and exponential MAs—from the 5-day SMA at $139 to the 200-day at $123-126—signal buy, with price trading decisively above them. The 50-day SMA hovers near $113-129, acting as dynamic support, while shorter-term EMAs (10-day at $131-137, 20-day at $127-135) confirm the steep uptrend slope. This fanning structure of MAs underscores sustained buying pressure, with minimal sell signals across 12+ periods.
Momentum Indicators
In my view, momentum on the USO daily chart shows neutral-to-bullish readings overall. RSI(14) at 64-70 indicates building strength without extreme overbought conditions, though Stochastic %K (84) and Williams %R (-18) flash overbought warnings. MACD(12,26) remains bullish at levels of 3-5.5, with the histogram supporting positive divergence. ADX(14) above 26-39 confirms trend strength, while CCI(20/14) in buy territory (108-133) aligns with the upmove. Oscillators overall tilt neutral but favor bulls amid the broader trend.
AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals
I’ve found Tickeron’s AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals particularly useful in my own analysis of USO and similar ETFs. These signals leverage artificial intelligence to analyze vast datasets including technical indicators, price patterns, and historical trends. They help identify potential buy or sell opportunities by recognizing recurring market behaviors, trend shifts, and momentum changes—something I rely on to pinpoint entry/exit points, validate chart setups, and enhance decision-making in volatile commodity-linked assets like oil ETFs. Updated daily, they offer a data-driven edge that fits right into my trading process. I recommend checking the AI Daily Buy/Sell Signals for USO insights.
Technical Outlook and Key Levels to Watch
Looking ahead, I’m watching USO's interaction with $140-144 resistance for breakout potential or rejection. A hold above $138-139 pivot supports trend continuation, while breaches could test $136 or deeper $118-122 zones. This is important because monitoring MACD for histogram weakness and RSI for divergence amid overbought risks will be key. Volume confirmation on moves past pivots will be crucial, alongside any crude oil-linked developments influencing supply/demand zones.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
Contributor
My name is Jimmy, and I’m a financial analyst focused on identifying compelling opportunities across the ETF market. Each day, I analyze hundreds of ETFs to uncover potential trading and investment opportunities using a broad range of market factors. For short-term trading, I rely heavily on technical analysis, including price channels, momentum indicators, support and resistance levels, trend patterns, and other market signals. At the same time, I dedicate significant attention to evaluating ETFs from a long-term investment perspective. My objective is to build a well-balanced ETF portfolio that combines core investment holdings with more tactical and speculative positions. The goal is to create a portfolio that can participate effectively in market rallies while also remaining resilient during periods of volatility and market corrections.
USO in downward trend: price may decline as a result of having broken its higher Bollinger Band on September 10, 2026
USO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 10, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances where the stock broke above the upper band. In 43 of the 46 cases the stock fell afterwards. This puts the odds of success at 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for USO moved out of overbought territory on September 16, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 36 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 32 of the 36 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 89%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for USO turned negative on September 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 54 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 46 of the 54 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 85%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where USO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on USO as a result. In 80 of 88 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Following a +4.65% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where USO advanced for three days, in 301 of 333 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 224 of 247 cases where USO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.
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General Information
Category CommoditiesBroadBasket
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