Internet retailer Wayfair (NYSE: W) has seen its stock trend lower since the beginning of October. The shares fell from the $150 area to a low of $76.60 in November. The stock bounced back from that low and moved back above the $100 level before falling again in December.
If you connect the highs from October and December, you get what appears to be the upper rail of a downward sloped trend channel. The lower rail isn’t as clear cut as there are two possibilities. One parallel line connects the lows from mid-October and December and another one connects the previously mentioned low in November with an earlier low in the month.
You can also see on the chart that the stock struggled to move much beyond the 50-day moving average in early December and now the upper rail is just above the moving average.
The daily stochastic readings are in overbought territory, but they just made a bearish crossover and that was the scenario back in early December as well.
I chose to use the higher of the two upper rails on the chart above because that would be my minimum target on a bearish trade. If it goes lower, that’s fine too.
Looking at Wayfair’s fundamentals, the company scores the lowest possible rating in Investor’s Business Daily’s EPS rating system with a 1. That means that 99% of all companies in IBD’s database have had better earnings growth in the last three years with a greater emphasis on recent quarters.
W saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on April 03, 2024. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 instances where the indicator turned negative. In of the 43 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at .
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on April 10, 2024. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on W as a result. In of 82 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
W moved below its 50-day moving average on April 15, 2024 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where W declined for three days, the price rose further in of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are .
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where W advanced for three days, in of 292 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are .
W may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In of 238 cases where W Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are .
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. W’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.000) is normal, around the industry mean (3.742). P/E Ratio (0.000) is within average values for comparable stocks, (59.109). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.000) is also within normal values, averaging (1.844). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.027) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.520) is also within normal values, averaging (10.244).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. W’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock worse than average.
The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows
an online home furnishing store
Industry InternetRetail