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Feb 15, 2019
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XPO (XPO, $60.40) misses Q4 estimates; sales take a hit from business reduction on largest customer

XPO (XPO, $60.40) misses Q4 estimates; sales take a hit from business reduction on largest customer

XPO Logistics Inc. missed fourth-quarter earnings & sales expectations, causing its stock to plummet around -17% Friday.

The transportation and warehousing company reported adjusted earnings of 72 cents a share, lower than analysts' expectations of 84 cents.

Quarterly revenue came in at $4.39 billion, missing analysts’ estimate of $4.56 billion. XPO indicated that reduction of business from its largest customer pulled back revenue by $46 million in the fourth quarter.

For full year 2019, XPO is predicting revenue growth in the range of 3% to 5%, with organic revenue growth of 4% to 6%. The company portends that shrinking of business from its largest customer could erode sales by roughly $600 million this year.

Related Ticker: XPO

Contributor

Sergey Savastiouk, Ph.D. has a degree in Applied Mathematics from Moscow University and has extensive experience as an entrepreneur, investor, manager, and mathematician. His professional expertise is in applied mathematics, mathematical modeling, system and pattern analysis, and software and hardware system integration. He has served as the CEO of several hi-tech start-up companies and nonprofit organizations, which has given him proven capabilities in business strategy for high-tech start-up companies, market assessment, company formation, team building, product development, marketing, and sales. He has published numerous articles in journals and magazines on related fields. As a retail investor, he spent 15 years developing his proprietary trading and quantitative algorithms (now Tickeron’s A.I.), which brought him significant returns in trading the stock market. His current work and goal in founding Tickeron is to bring professional, sophisticated stock market analysis capabilities to retail investors via an easy-to-use interface.


XPO in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026

XPO moved above its 50-day moving average on October 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 34 of 40 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 85%.

Price Prediction Chart

Technical Analysis (Indicators)

Bullish Trend Analysis

The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 30, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on XPO as a result. In 63 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.

The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for XPO just turned positive on October 30, 2026. Looking at past instances where XPO's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.

The 10-day moving average for XPO crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 15 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.

Following a +4.76% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where XPO advanced for three days, in 218 of 291 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.

The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 179 of 218 cases where XPO Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 82%.

Bearish Trend Analysis

The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.

Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where XPO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.

XPO broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.

Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)

The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 80, placing this stock better than average.

The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.

The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. XPO’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.

The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 90 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: XPO's P/B Ratio (11.407) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (2.969). P/E Ratio (55.567) is within average values for comparable stocks, (45.982). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.707) is also within normal values, averaging (12.936). XPO has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.010). P/S Ratio (2.421) is also within normal values, averaging (2.068).

Industry description

The trucking industry provides road transportation delivery and logistical services, including moving large quantities of raw materials, works in process, and finished goods —often from manufacturing plants to retail distribution centers. Trucks are also used in the construction industry, as they transport large amounts of rocks, concrete, and other building materials used in construction. Trucks in the U.S. are responsible for the majority of freight movement over land, and therefore play an important role in the manufacturing, transportation, and warehousing industries. The business could be affected by economic cycles, since it is closely linked with manufacturing, retail and construction. Some of the major trucking companies in the U.S. are Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc., J.B. Hunt Transport Services, Inc., and XPO Logistics, Inc.

Market Cap

The average market capitalization across the Trucking Industry is 6.56B. The market cap for tickers in the group ranges from 68.03K to 36.84B. ODFL holds the highest valuation in this group at 36.84B. The lowest valued company is YELLQ at 68.03K.

High and low price notable news

The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the Trucking Industry was 11%. For the same Industry, the average monthly price growth was 4%, and the average quarterly price growth was 13%. ULH experienced the highest price growth at 93%, while TFII experienced the biggest fall at -16%.

Volume

The average weekly volume growth across all stocks in the Trucking Industry was -28%. For the same stocks of the Industry, the average monthly volume growth was -12% and the average quarterly volume growth was -41%

Fundamental Analysis Ratings

The average fundamental analysis ratings, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, are as follows

Valuation Rating: 64
P/E Growth Rating: 33
Price Growth Rating: 54
SMR Rating: 82
Profit Risk Rating: 79
Seasonality Score: 6 (-100 ... +100)
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General Information

a provider of logistics and other transportation services

Industry Trucking

Industry
Trucking
Address
Five American Lane
Phone
+1 855 976-6951
Employees
37000
Web
https://www.xpo.com
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