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AAON vs JCI
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AAON, Inc. (AAON) vs. Johnson Controls International plc (JCI) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both AAON and JCI are leveraged to strong data center and commercial HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning) demand, but at very different scales and stages of maturity.
- AAON is delivering rapid, triple-digit revenue growth and record backlog, while JCI offers steadier, single-digit organic growth with expanding margins.
- AAON faces near-term gross-margin pressure from capacity ramp-up and outsourcing costs; JCI is benefiting from a simplified, post-divestiture portfolio and record backlog.
- Relative performance reflects divergent profiles: AAON trades at a higher earnings multiple with higher volatility, while JCI trades at a lower multiple with broader diversification.
Introduction
Investors evaluating industrial and building-technology equities often face a choice between high-growth specialists and diversified market leaders. This stock comparison examines AAON, a U.S.-based maker of commercial HVAC and data center cooling equipment, alongside JCI (Johnson Controls International plc), a global building products and technology solutions provider. Both companies have been direct beneficiaries of surging demand for energy-efficient cooling and data center infrastructure, yet they differ sharply in size, market positioning, and growth trajectory. This analysis is relevant for traders weighing relative momentum and for longer-term investors assessing business quality, margin trends, and risk exposure across the HVAC and smart-building landscape.
AAON Overview and Recent Performance
AAON (AAON, Inc.), headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma, manufactures semi-custom and custom rooftop HVAC units under its AAON brand and specialized data center cooling solutions under its BASX brand. The company has expanded rapidly in recent quarters, reporting record second-quarter sales of roughly $627 million, an increase of about 101% year over year, and its fourth consecutive quarterly revenue record. Growth has been driven primarily by BASX-branded data center products, whose sales more than tripled, while AAON-branded commercial HVAC sales rose by roughly 39%.
Recent market activity has been characterized by volatility. Despite strong operational results, AAON shares have been choppy in recent months, with the stock trading around the high-$70s per share. Sentiment has been tempered by gross-margin compression tied to the ramp-up of its Memphis, Tennessee facility, increased outsourcing of coil production, and inflationary cost pressures. Management has raised its full-year revenue growth outlook to the 55%–60% range while acknowledging that margin recovery is expected to build through the second half of the fiscal year.
JCI Overview and Recent Performance
JCI (Johnson Controls International plc), based in Cork, Ireland, is a global leader in building products and technology, spanning commercial HVAC, fire detection, security, and building management systems. Following the July 2025 sale of its residential and light commercial HVAC business, the company has focused on large commercial and applied HVAC markets. In its most recent quarter, JCI reported sales of roughly $6.6 billion, up about 9% year over year (10% organic), with adjusted earnings per share of $1.42 that exceeded consensus estimates.
Recent market activity has been more stable than that of its smaller peer. Orders rose approximately 27% organically, and backlog reached a record near $21 billion, up about 32%. Management raised its full-year adjusted EPS (earnings per share) guidance to approximately $5.05, citing sustained applied HVAC and data center demand, notably for its YORK chillers. Analysts have responded favorably in recent weeks, with new coverage initiated at an overweight-equivalent rating and price targets moving higher, reflecting improving execution and portfolio simplification.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two names is scale and growth profile. AAON is a high-growth specialist with a market capitalization in the single-digit billions, growing revenue at triple-digit rates as it converts a roughly $2 billion backlog. JCI is a diversified global incumbent with a market capitalization many times larger, growing organically in the single digits while expanding margins and converting a record backlog of roughly $21 billion.
Risk factors also diverge. AAON's earnings quality is currently pressured by capacity ramp-up, outsourcing, and price-cost timing, and its higher earnings multiple leaves less room for execution missteps. JCI carries geographic and segment diversification, but its exposure to macro-sensitive commercial construction and lingering restructuring costs from portfolio changes represents its own set of risks. On sector exposure, both depend heavily on data center and applied HVAC demand, though JCI adds recurring service revenue and smart-building software that AAON largely lacks.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor JCI at present. While AAON offers more dramatic growth and a stronger near-term data center catalyst, its recent price volatility and margin compression introduce greater trend inconsistency. JCI combines steadier relative performance, margin expansion, record backlog, rising guidance, and favorable analyst momentum. A probabilistic, AI-driven framework tends to reward such a combination of momentum quality and lower drawdown risk, though the higher-beta, higher-growth profile of AAON may appeal to traders seeking greater upside potential.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AAON is a Hold and JCI is a StrongBuy.
Momentum Indicator for AAON turns negative, indicating new downward trend
AAON saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 95 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 68 of the 95 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AAON turned negative on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 28 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 60%.
AAON moved below its 50-day moving average on October 14, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AAON declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where AAON's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 20 of 31 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for AAON crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
Following a +5.76% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AAON advanced for three days, in 263 of 344 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
AAON may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 179 of 245 cases where AAON Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 73%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AAON’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 80 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.148) is normal, around the industry mean (3.054). P/E Ratio (38.835) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.118). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.982) is also within normal values, averaging (1.212). Dividend Yield (0.005) settles around the average of (0.083) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.261) is also within normal values, averaging (2.201).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 83 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. AAON’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 85 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
JCI in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026
JCI moved above its 50-day moving average on October 19, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 40 of 52 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for JCI crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Following a +1.61% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where JCI advanced for three days, in 220 of 354 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 189 of 300 cases where JCI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 63%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for JCI moved out of overbought territory on October 07, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 21 of the 32 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 66%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on JCI as a result. In 44 of 81 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for JCI turned negative on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 26 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 55%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where JCI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
JCI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 12 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 76, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 39 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 50 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. JCI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 76 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 80 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.659) is normal, around the industry mean (3.054). P/E Ratio (26.004) is within average values for comparable stocks, (23.118). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.702) is also within normal values, averaging (1.212). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.083) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.470) is also within normal values, averaging (2.201).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
AAON | JCI | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 83 | 84 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 80 Overvalued | 80 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 70 | 12 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 51 | 39 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 83 | 50 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 85 | 76 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AAON's Valuation (80) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as JCI (80) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry. This means that AAON’s stock grew similarly to JCI’s over the last 12 months.
JCI's Profit vs Risk Rating (12) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AAON (70) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that JCI’s stock grew somewhat faster than AAON’s over the last 12 months.
JCI's SMR Rating (39) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is in the same range as AAON (51) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that JCI’s stock grew similarly to AAON’s over the last 12 months.
JCI's Price Growth Rating (50) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AAON (83) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that JCI’s stock grew somewhat faster than AAON’s over the last 12 months.
JCI's P/E Growth Rating (76) in the Miscellaneous Commercial Services industry is in the same range as AAON (85) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that JCI’s stock grew similarly to AAON’s over the last 12 months.
| AAON | JCI | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 66% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 72% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 54% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 55% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 76% | 15 days ago 62% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 70% | 5 days ago 55% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 63% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AAON’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while JCI’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AAON’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- JCI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AAON’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while JCI’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AAON’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- JCI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
AAON (@Building Products) experienced а -11.12% price change this week, while JCI (@Building Products) price change was -4.63% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Building Products industry was -0.50%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.33%, and the average quarterly price growth was -8.93%.
Reported Earning Dates
AAON is expected to report earnings on Nov 09, 2026.
JCI is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Building Products (-0.50% weekly)The industry manufactures products used in the construction of residential and commercial buildings. The process involves using materials and other products, and processing them to create finished items such as doors, windows, light fittings, floor coverings, climate control products and other building components and home improvement products. Masco Corporation, Allegion PLC and Lennox International Inc. are major manufacturers of such products.
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JCI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, JCI has been closely correlated with IR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if JCI jumps, then IR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To JCI | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| JCI | 100% | +1.89% | ||
| IR - JCI | 77% Closely correlated | -0.04% | ||
| TT - JCI | 75% Closely correlated | +1.34% | ||
| SPXC - JCI | 57% Loosely correlated | +0.28% | ||
| CARR - JCI | 52% Loosely correlated | +0.38% | ||
| AAON - JCI | 45% Loosely correlated | +2.18% | ||
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