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AAON vs IR
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AAON, Inc. (AAON) vs. Ingersoll Rand Inc. (IR) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AAON has delivered stronger year-to-date performance at approximately 23%, outpacing IR's roughly -4% amid broader industrials sector pressures.
- Both companies benefit from HVAC and cooling demand, but AAON's focus on data center solutions has driven a record $1.3 billion backlog in its BASX segment, signaling robust future revenue.
- IR reported Q1 2026 earnings and revenues beating estimates, with 7.6% top-line growth, though organic revenues dipped slightly due to project delays.
- AAON trades at a premium valuation with a P/E ratio around 70x, reflecting growth expectations, while IR's larger market cap of $30 billion offers broader diversification.
- Analyst consensus leans "Moderate Buy" for AAON with targets up to $120; IR maintains steady guidance for 2.5-4.5% revenue growth in 2026.
- Recent market activity highlights AAON's momentum from AI-driven data center cooling, contrasting IR's resilience in industrial technologies.
Introduction
This stock comparison examines AAON, a specialist in custom HVAC systems, and IR, a diversified provider of industrial flow creation technologies, both operating in the industrials sector with exposure to heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) demand. Investors tracking building products and equipment may find this relevant amid rising needs for energy-efficient cooling solutions, particularly in data centers and commercial applications. Traders focused on relative performance will note contrasts in growth trajectories and market positioning during recent market activity, aiding decisions on momentum plays versus stability in a volatile environment.
AAON Overview and Recent Performance
AAON, Inc., headquartered in Tulsa, Oklahoma, engineers, manufactures, and sells semi-custom HVAC equipment including rooftop units, data center cooling, and cleanroom systems through segments like AAON Oklahoma, AAON Coil Products, and BASX. The company serves commercial sectors such as retail, education, and medical facilities.
In recent market activity, AAON stock has shown resilience, with year-to-date gains around 23% and a 52-week range of $62 to $116. Q4 2025 results featured 42.5% revenue growth to $424 million, beating estimates despite an earnings miss, propelled by 143% BASX sales surge from AI data center demand. A record $1.83 billion backlog, up 111% year-over-year, underscores strong bookings, particularly an 86% rise in national accounts. Gross margins held near 26%, with 2026 guidance for 18-20% sales growth and 29-31% margins. Sentiment has been buoyed by expansions like the Memphis facility and analyst upgrades, though margin pressures from capacity ramps and ERP implementations have tempered gains. Price behavior reflects data center catalysts outweighing industrials slowdowns.
IR Overview and Recent Performance
Ingersoll Rand Inc. (IR), based in Davidson, North Carolina, provides mission-critical air, fluid, energy, and medical technologies through Industrial Technologies and Services, and Precision and Science Technologies segments. Its portfolio includes compressors, pumps, and power tools under brands like Ingersoll Rand and Gardner Denver, targeting industrial productivity.
Recent weeks have seen IR stock face headwinds, with year-to-date declines around 4% and a 52-week range of $72 to $101, amid a 1-year return near flat. Q1 2026 results topped estimates with $1.85 billion in revenues, up 7.6% year-over-year (acquisitions adding 3.7%, FX 4.2%), and adjusted EPS of $0.77 versus $0.74 expected. Organic revenues edged down 0.3% from delayed projects, but segment growth and the acquisition of Fox s.r.l. for metering capabilities supported outperformance. The company reaffirmed 2026 guidance for 2.5-4.5% revenue growth. Sentiment remains steady on diversified exposure, though broader industrials weakness and margin contraction have pressured shares, with price action stabilizing post-earnings.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AAON and IR share industrials sector exposure but diverge in business models: AAON specializes in configurable HVAC for commercial/data centers ($7.7B market cap, $1.4B TTM revenue), while IR offers broader flow technologies ($30B market cap, ~$7.7B annual revenue). Growth drivers contrast with AAON's data center backlog fueling 20%+ projected sales, versus IR's steady 3-4% organic growth via acquisitions.
Recent momentum favors AAON (YTD +23% vs. IR -4%), but IR exhibits lower volatility. Risk factors include AAON's margin squeezes (P/E ~70x) from expansions versus IR's project delays (P/E ~50x). Sector-wise, both tap HVAC tailwinds, but AAON has purer data center play. Market sentiment tilts toward AAON on analyst buys, while IR appeals for scale and diversification trade-offs.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently favors AAON over IR, driven by superior trend consistency in recent weeks, explosive backlog growth from data center catalysts, and relative YTD outperformance. While IR offers stability and beat Q1 metrics, AAON's positioning in high-growth cooling aligns with observable momentum factors, suggesting higher probability of near-term upside in favorable industrials conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AAON is a Hold and IR is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AAON’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileIR’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AAON’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- IR’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AAON’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while IR’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AAON’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- IR’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AAON (@Building Products) experienced а +42.61% price change this week, while IR (@Industrial Machinery) price change was -3.44% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Building Products industry was +6.45%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +10.43%, and the average quarterly price growth was +17.79%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Industrial Machinery industry was -0.15%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +6.35%, and the average quarterly price growth was +20.08%.
Reported Earning Dates
AAON is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
IR is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Building Products (+6.45% weekly)The industry manufactures products used in the construction of residential and commercial buildings. The process involves using materials and other products, and processing them to create finished items such as doors, windows, light fittings, floor coverings, climate control products and other building components and home improvement products. Masco Corporation, Allegion PLC and Lennox International Inc. are major manufacturers of such products.
@Industrial Machinery (-0.15% weekly)The industry makes and maintains machines for consumers, the industry, and most other companies. While it has traditionally been categorized as heavy industry, some smaller companies are also branching into the light category. The industry is pivotal in providing the equipment for production in businesses like agriculture, mining, industry and construction, gas, electricity and water utilities. It also supplies supporting equipment for almost all sectors of the economy, such as equipment for heating, and air conditioning of buildings. Illinois Tool Works Inc., Parker-Hannifin Corporation and Rockwell Automation Inc are some of the major U.S. companies operating in this industry.
| AAON | IR | AAON / IR | |
| Capitalization | 10.9B | 28.6B | 38% |
| EBITDA | 250M | 1.69B | 15% |
| Gain YTD | 75.394 | -7.566 | -996% |
| P/E Ratio | 94.06 | 49.47 | 190% |
| Revenue | 1.62B | 7.78B | 21% |
| Total Cash | 13K | 1.27B | 0% |
| Total Debt | 451M | 4.84B | 9% |
AAON | IR | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 61 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 94 Overvalued | 80 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 40 | 63 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 60 | 83 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 37 | 64 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 13 | 31 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
IR's Valuation (80) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry is in the same range as AAON (94) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that IR’s stock grew similarly to AAON’s over the last 12 months.
AAON's Profit vs Risk Rating (40) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as IR (63) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry. This means that AAON’s stock grew similarly to IR’s over the last 12 months.
AAON's SMR Rating (60) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as IR (83) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry. This means that AAON’s stock grew similarly to IR’s over the last 12 months.
AAON's Price Growth Rating (37) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as IR (64) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry. This means that AAON’s stock grew similarly to IR’s over the last 12 months.
AAON's P/E Growth Rating (13) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as IR (31) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry. This means that AAON’s stock grew similarly to IR’s over the last 12 months.
| AAON | IR | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 83% | 1 day ago 58% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 86% | 1 day ago 57% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 8 days ago 65% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 68% | 1 day ago 57% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 77% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 72% |
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| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| TOK | 148.88 | N/A | N/A |
| iShares MSCI Kokusai ETF | |||
| HELS | 24.29 | -0.15 | -0.61% |
| Hedgeye 130/30 Equity ETF | |||
| EOS | 22.46 | -0.21 | -0.93% |
| Eaton Vance Enhance Equity Income Fund II | |||
| IBGL | 23.64 | -0.29 | -1.19% |
| iShares iBonds Dec 2055 Term Trsy ETF | |||
| LDEM | 62.21 | -1.15 | -1.82% |
| iShares® ESG MSCI EM Leaders ETF | |||
AAON and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AAON has been loosely correlated with IR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 46% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AAON jumps, then IR could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AAON | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AAON | 100% | -5.74% | ||
| IR - AAON | 46% Loosely correlated | -1.99% | ||
| APT - AAON | 42% Loosely correlated | -4.37% | ||
| CARR - AAON | 42% Loosely correlated | -0.49% | ||
| LPX - AAON | 41% Loosely correlated | -1.69% | ||
| BXC - AAON | 40% Loosely correlated | -3.58% | ||
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