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ADSK vs ORCL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Autodesk (ADSK) vs. Oracle (ORCL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Autodesk (ADSK) and Oracle (ORCL) operate in overlapping software markets but with sharply different profiles: ADSK is a design-software subscription leader, while ORCL is a database and cloud-infrastructure giant riding AI demand.
- ORCL is growing revenue far faster (roughly 30% year over year), but that growth is capital-intensive, with negative free cash flow; ADSK grows more slowly yet generates substantial recurring cash flow.
- Both stocks have underperformed over the past year, though ADSK has shown recent momentum (a double-digit rebound in recent weeks), while ORCL remains closer to its 52-week low.
- Valuation differs materially: ORCL trades at a lower forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple, while ADSK carries a higher multiple supported by higher margins.
- Analyst consensus is "Buy" on both names, but the market is pricing each against very different risk factors: execution and AI disruption for ADSK, versus capital spending and customer concentration for ORCL.
Introduction
Autodesk (ADSK) and Oracle (ORCL) are two of the most closely watched enterprise-software companies, yet they appeal to different kinds of investors. ADSK dominates computer-aided design and construction software, while ORCL has transformed into an artificial-intelligence (AI) cloud-infrastructure play. This stock comparison is relevant to traders and investors weighing a steady, cash-generative subscription business against a faster-growing but more leveraged AI-infrastructure story. Both names face sector-wide questions about AI disruption and valuation, making their relative performance and market positioning a useful lens for understanding the current software landscape.
ADSK Overview and Recent Performance
Autodesk provides 3D design, engineering, construction, and media/entertainment software, with its largest segment serving the architecture, engineering, and construction (AEC) industry. The company runs on a largely subscription-based model, giving it predictable recurring revenue. In its most recent reported fiscal quarter, total revenue rose 19% year over year, and full-year fiscal 2026 revenue increased about 18%.
Recent market activity has been mixed for ADSK. The stock declined roughly 20% year to date and sits well below its 52-week high, reflecting investor concerns about AI-driven pressure on software seat counts, a sales-transition strategy, and near-term margin investment. However, sentiment has improved in recent weeks, with the stock rebounding by a double-digit percentage. A notable catalyst was Schneider Electric's announced acquisition of rival PTC at a substantial premium, which prompted investors to re-rate comparable engineering-software assets. Leadership changes, including the appointment of a new head of the AEC segment, and ongoing AI product launches have also influenced sentiment. Analysts maintain a broadly positive consensus, with an average price target well above the current price.
ORCL Overview and Recent Performance
Oracle is best known for its database software, but its growth engine is now Oracle Cloud Infrastructure (OCI), which rents out computing capacity used heavily for AI model training and inference. Demand has been exceptional: in its most recent reported quarter, total revenue rose about 30% year over year, while cloud-infrastructure revenue grew more than 120%. Oracle's remaining performance obligations (RPO) — contracted revenue not yet recognized — reached roughly $664 billion, supported by large AI cloud agreements.
That growth, however, has come at a steep cost. Oracle's capital expenditures (spending on data centers and hardware) have surged, and free cash flow has been negative for multiple consecutive quarters. The company has also raised substantial debt and issued new equity to fund its build-out, which dilutes existing shareholders. These concerns, along with concentration risk tied to a small number of very large customers, have weighed on the stock. ORCL has declined more than 50% over the past 52 weeks and roughly 30% year to date, despite strong top-line results and an upward revision to full-year revenue guidance.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies offer a clear contrast in business model and risk profile. ADSK is a high-margin, subscription-led design-software franchise with strong cash generation but slower growth and growing exposure to AI-driven disruption of traditional licensing and seat economics. ORCL is a diversified database and cloud provider whose AI-infrastructure pivot is delivering some of the fastest revenue growth in enterprise software, but at the price of heavy capital spending, negative free cash flow, rising debt, and shareholder dilution.
On growth drivers, ADSK leans on construction and manufacturing cloud platforms, digital workflows, and gradual AI monetization; ORCL leans on surging demand for AI computing capacity and a massive contracted backlog. On momentum, ADSK has firmed in recent weeks, while ORCL remains volatile and closer to its lows. On valuation, ORCL trades at a lower forward P/E multiple, reflecting investor skepticism about cash-flow conversion, whereas ADSK commands a richer multiple backed by higher profitability. Sector exposure also differs: both are software, but ORCL's fortunes are now tightly linked to AI-infrastructure capital cycles, while ADSK is more sensitive to design and construction demand.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely express a relative preference for ADSK in the current environment. ADSK's trend appears to be stabilizing, with recent price momentum, strong recurring revenue, positive free cash flow, and constructive analyst positioning. ORCL, by contrast, shows powerful revenue growth but faces more pronounced headwinds around negative free cash flow, elevated capital spending, and concentration risk that keep its trend less consistent. This is a probabilistic assessment grounded in trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning rather than a definitive forecast, and either stock could outperform as conditions evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ADSK is a Hold and ORCL is a Hold.
Momentum Indicator for ADSK turns positive, indicating new upward trend
ADSK saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 05, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 83 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 56 of the 83 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ADSK just turned positive on October 05, 2026. Looking at past instances where ADSK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
ADSK moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +6.39% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ADSK advanced for three days, in 212 of 331 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 10-day moving average for ADSK crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 11, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ADSK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
ADSK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for ADSK entered a downward trend on October 08, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ADSK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 74 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (12.804) is normal, around the industry mean (51.922). P/E Ratio (26.838) is within average values for comparable stocks, (82.636). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.797) is also within normal values, averaging (3.135). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.011) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.024) is also within normal values, averaging (70.810).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ADSK’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 94, placing this stock worse than average.
ORCL sees its Stochastic Oscillator ascending out of oversold territory
On October 02, 2026, the Stochastic Oscillator for ORCL moved out of oversold territory and this could be a bullish sign for the stock. Traders may want to buy the stock or buy call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 59 instances where the indicator left the oversold zone. In 48 of the 59 cases the stock moved higher in the following days. This puts the odds of a move higher at over 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
Following a +1.74% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ORCL advanced for three days, in 228 of 332 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ORCL as a result. In 47 of 69 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 68%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ORCL turned negative on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 24 of the 39 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 62%.
ORCL moved below its 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ORCL crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 10 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ORCL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
The Aroon Indicator for ORCL entered a downward trend on October 07, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 44 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.502) is normal, around the industry mean (17.765). P/E Ratio (20.784) is within average values for comparable stocks, (159.605). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.740) is also within normal values, averaging (3.648). Dividend Yield (0.015) settles around the average of (0.004) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.858) is also within normal values, averaging (103.889).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. ORCL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ORCL’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
ADSK | ORCL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 20 | 21 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 74 Overvalued | 44 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 81 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 24 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 55 | 63 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 96 | 98 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 3 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ORCL's Valuation (44) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as ADSK (74). This means that ORCL’s stock grew similarly to ADSK’s over the last 12 months.
ORCL's Profit vs Risk Rating (81) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as ADSK (100). This means that ORCL’s stock grew similarly to ADSK’s over the last 12 months.
ADSK's SMR Rating (19) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as ORCL (24). This means that ADSK’s stock grew similarly to ORCL’s over the last 12 months.
ADSK's Price Growth Rating (55) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as ORCL (63). This means that ADSK’s stock grew similarly to ORCL’s over the last 12 months.
ADSK's P/E Growth Rating (96) in the Packaged Software industry is in the same range as ORCL (98). This means that ADSK’s stock grew similarly to ORCL’s over the last 12 months.
| ADSK | ORCL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 81% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 68% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 62% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 69% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 71% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 10 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 8 days ago 67% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | N/A |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 80% | 1 day ago 69% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ADSK’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while ORCL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ADSK’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ORCL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ADSK’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ORCL’s TA Score has 2 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ADSK’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- ORCL’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
ADSK (@Packaged Software) experienced а +4.95% price change this week, while ORCL (@Computer Communications) price change was -0.53% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Packaged Software industry was -1.95%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.07%, and the average quarterly price growth was +1.08%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Computer Communications industry was -4.57%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.60%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.58%.
Reported Earning Dates
ADSK is expected to report earnings on Dec 01, 2026.
ORCL is expected to report earnings on Dec 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Packaged Software (-1.95% weekly)Packaged software comprises multiple software programs bundled together and sold as a group. For example, Microsoft Office includes multiple applications such as Excel, Word, and PowerPoint. In some cases, buying a bundled product is cheaper than purchasing each item individually[s20] . Microsoft Corporation, Oracle Corp. and Adobe are some major American packaged software makers.
@Computer Communications (-4.57% weekly)Computer communications industry develops technology that allows computing devices to exchange data with each other using connections/data links between nodes. Common types of computer network include Cloud (IAN), Internet, Wide (WAN, Local (LAN)/Wireless(WLAN) etc. The industry is an ever-more important part of technology, and is set to become even bigger as the Internet of Things (IoT) rapidly forays into the various aspects of our lives. Cisco Systems, Inc., Palo Alto Networks, Inc. and Arista Networks, Inc., Fortinet, Inc. are some of the major computer communications companies.
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