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AGCO vs CNH
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AGCO Corporation (AGCO) vs. CNH Industrial (CNH) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Different diversification profiles: AGCO is a pure-play agricultural equipment and precision technology maker, while CNH also carries a large construction equipment segment that has outperformed during the current ag downturn.
- Relative momentum diverged: CNH shares have climbed roughly 40% year to date, while AGCO has posted a more moderate gain of about 19% over the same window, reflecting different sentiment shifts.
- Margins under shared pressure: Both companies are absorbing tariff-related input costs and soft South American demand, which have narrowed agricultural margins in recent quarters.
- Guidance tells a story: AGCO lowered its full-year sales and earnings outlook in mid-2026, whereas CNH narrowed and raised its 2026 industrial guidance, partly on strength in construction.
- Valuation gap is wide: CNH trades at a notably higher price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio than the machinery sector average, while AGCO's valuation sits closer to historical norms.
Introduction
Investors tracking the agricultural machinery cycle frequently weigh AGCO against CNH, two of the sector's largest equipment manufacturers. Although both serve farmers through overlapping geographic footprints and product lines, their business mixes and recent stock behavior have diverged meaningfully. This stock comparison is relevant to value-oriented investors, cyclical traders, and anyone assessing how a prolonged agricultural downturn interacts with tariffs, precision technology adoption, and construction demand. By examining relative performance, market positioning, and observable catalysts, readers can better understand where each company stands in the current market environment.
AGCO Overview and Recent Performance
AGCO Corporation is a global agricultural machinery and precision agriculture company whose brands include Fendt, Massey Ferguson, PTx, and Valtra. Its "Farmer-First" strategy emphasizes high-horsepower equipment, retrofit precision technology, and a growing aftermarket parts business. The company has also deepened its presence in precision agriculture through its PTx joint venture with Trimble, targeting roughly $2 billion in PTx revenue by 2029.
In recent market activity, AGCO shares have advanced at a measured pace, supported by market share gains in North American high-horsepower tractors and hay tools. First-quarter results showed a 14.3% rise in net sales, though second-quarter sales edged lower on softer demand in Europe and Latin America. Management trimmed its full-year outlook, citing tariff costs and input-price headwinds. Sentiment has also been shaped by a $500 million commitment to artificial intelligence and South American expansion, alongside the sale of its North American finance joint ventures for about $190 million to fund share repurchases.
CNH Overview and Recent Performance
CNH Industrial manufactures both agricultural and construction equipment under brands including Case IH, New Holland, and CASE Construction, and it operates a captive Financial Services arm. This diversification is a defining feature: while its agriculture business has contended with weak farmer profitability, its construction segment has delivered double-digit sales growth on strong North American demand.
Over recent weeks, CNH has been among the sector's stronger performers, with the stock rising sharply year to date even as second-quarter adjusted earnings per share (EPS) declined versus the prior year. The company narrowed and raised its 2026 industrial sales and margin guidance, aided by positive price/cost dynamics in agriculture and construction momentum. Offsetting factors include tariff drag on both segments, rising credit delinquencies in Brazil, and an analyst downgrade to a neutral rating on valuation grounds. The result is a stock whose relative momentum has outpaced its earnings trajectory.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental contrast between these two stocks is portfolio breadth. AGCO is a concentrated agriculture-and-technology play, which offers clearer exposure to a precision-agriculture recovery but little offset when farm spending stalls. CNH blends agriculture with construction and financial services, providing a partial hedge through construction growth and lending income, though that same financial arm adds credit risk in pressured regions such as Brazil.
On growth drivers, AGCO leans on premium brand share gains and a recurring, higher-margin technology and aftermarket story. CNH is emphasizing cost discipline, sourcing savings, dealer inventory reduction, and a technology roadmap that includes connectivity and automation. Recent momentum clearly favors CNH, whose relative performance has been stronger, while AGCO's advance has been steadier and less extended. Risk factors overlap heavily—tariffs, elevated input costs, and weak South American demand affect both—but CNH carries the added complexity of financial services credit quality, and AGCO carries greater single-sector concentration. Valuation is another differentiator, with CNH's P/E ratio running well above the machinery industry average, implying less margin for error.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward CNH on near-term trend strength. The stock's consistent upward momentum, improving guidance, and construction-led diversification provide a more favorable short-term technical and sentiment profile. However, that advantage is tempered by a stretched valuation and rising credit risk, which are precisely the conditions that can reverse quickly. AGCO, by contrast, presents a steadier, lower-multiple exposure to a precision-agriculture recovery but currently lacks the same momentum catalysts. In probabilistic terms, CNH appears better positioned for trend-following strategies in the current environment, while AGCO may hold greater appeal for investors willing to wait for a cyclical inflection. As always, the appropriate choice depends on timeframe, strategy, and risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AGCO is a StrongBuy and CNH is a Hold.
AGCO's RSI Indicator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for AGCO moved out of oversold territory on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 28 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 24 of the 28 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 43 of 61 cases where AGCO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Following a +1.45% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AGCO advanced for three days, in 199 of 321 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
AGCO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
AGCO moved below its 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AGCO crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AGCO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
The Aroon Indicator for AGCO entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 52 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.822) is normal, around the industry mean (2.561). P/E Ratio (14.664) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.171). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.931) is also within normal values, averaging (1.745). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.847) is also within normal values, averaging (1.128).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. AGCO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AGCO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock worse than average.
CNH's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for CNH entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 198 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 159 of the 198 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CNH as a result. In 59 of 91 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CNH turned negative on September 18, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 35 of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 69%.
CNH moved below its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CNH crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 22 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CNH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CNH's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 31 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 10 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +6.85% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CNH advanced for three days, in 181 of 295 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
CNH may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CNH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 68 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.401) is normal, around the industry mean (2.561). P/E Ratio (46.320) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.171). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.362) is also within normal values, averaging (1.745). Dividend Yield (0.035) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.926) is also within normal values, averaging (1.128).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 85 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CNH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock worse than average.
AGCO | CNH | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 71 | 68 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 52 Fair valued | 68 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 61 | 85 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 71 | 56 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 96 | 3 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AGCO's Valuation (52) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as CNH (68). This means that AGCO’s stock grew similarly to CNH’s over the last 12 months.
AGCO's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as CNH (100). This means that AGCO’s stock grew similarly to CNH’s over the last 12 months.
AGCO's SMR Rating (61) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as CNH (85). This means that AGCO’s stock grew similarly to CNH’s over the last 12 months.
CNH's Price Growth Rating (56) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as AGCO (71). This means that CNH’s stock grew similarly to AGCO’s over the last 12 months.
CNH's P/E Growth Rating (3) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is significantly better than the same rating for AGCO (96). This means that CNH’s stock grew significantly faster than AGCO’s over the last 12 months.
| AGCO | CNH | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 86% | 1 day ago 58% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 69% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 70% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 10 days ago 61% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 67% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 80% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AGCO’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while CNH’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AGCO’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- CNH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AGCO’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CNH’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AGCO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- CNH’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
AGCO (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) experienced а -0.03% price change this week, while CNH (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) price change was -3.10% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery industry was -3.15%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -12.90%, and the average quarterly price growth was -6.66%.
Reported Earning Dates
AGCO is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
CNH is expected to report earnings on Nov 09, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery (-3.15% weekly)The industry designs and builds agricultural, construction and other large commercial and transportation equipment. Tractors, planters and harvesters, as well as rock-crushing, railroad, demolition and other construction implements are produced by this industry. Rapid urbanization and industrialization has been bolstering the expansion of the construction sector in the past few decades, thereby boosting demand for heavy equipment businesses. Caterpillar Inc., Deere & Company and Cummins Inc (Ex. Cummins Engine Inc) are some prominent companies in this industry.
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AGCO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AGCO has been closely correlated with DE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AGCO jumps, then DE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AGCO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGCO | 100% | +0.90% | ||
| DE - AGCO | 72% Closely correlated | +1.11% | ||
| TWI - AGCO | 58% Loosely correlated | +0.29% | ||
| OSK - AGCO | 56% Loosely correlated | -0.91% | ||
| LNN - AGCO | 54% Loosely correlated | +5.07% | ||
| TEX - AGCO | 53% Loosely correlated | -1.81% | ||
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