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AGCO vs DE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AGCO Corporation (AGCO) vs. Deere & Company (DE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AGCO and Deere are two of the world's leading agricultural equipment manufacturers, both navigating a prolonged downcycle in farm machinery demand driven by weak crop prices, elevated input costs, and trade uncertainty.
- Deere's significantly larger scale — with a market capitalization exceeding $165 billion versus AGCO's roughly $8.5 billion — gives it deeper financial resources but also exposes it to broader cyclical pressures across multiple equipment segments.
- AGCO has executed a notable structural transformation, divesting the majority of its Grain & Protein business and forming the PTx Trimble joint venture, sharpening its focus on core agricultural equipment and precision technology.
- Both companies generated substantial free cash flow in their most recent fiscal years, demonstrating disciplined cost management and inventory reduction despite double-digit revenue declines.
- Valuation metrics favor AGCO, which trades at a lower forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple, while Deere offers greater brand recognition and a more diversified revenue base that includes construction and forestry equipment.
- Tariff-related cost headwinds and farmer sentiment remain key variables shaping the near-term outlook for both stocks.
Introduction
For investors tracking the agricultural machinery sector, AGCO and DE represent two distinct ways to gain exposure to global farming trends. AGCO Corporation and Deere & Company compete across tractors, combines, sprayers, and precision agriculture technology, yet they differ markedly in scale, geographic footprint, and business diversification. With the industry working through a sustained downcycle — marked by softening farmer income, trade policy uncertainty, and cautious equipment purchasing — understanding how these two manufacturers compare on resilience, valuation, and strategic positioning is timely. This comparison is relevant for long-term investors assessing value opportunities as well as traders monitoring shifts in relative momentum within the industrial and agricultural equipment space.
AGCO Overview and Recent Performance
AGCO Corporation, headquartered in Duluth, Georgia, is a global manufacturer and distributor of agricultural machinery and precision agriculture technology. Its brand portfolio includes well-known names such as Fendt, Massey Ferguson, Valtra, and PTx. The company has undergone a significant structural transformation in recent periods, including the divestiture of the majority of its Grain & Protein business and the formation of the PTx Trimble joint venture — a move designed to strengthen its competitive position in mixed-fleet precision agriculture solutions.
In its most recent full fiscal year (2025), AGCO reported net sales of approximately $10.1 billion, a decline of 13.5% compared to the prior year, reflecting the broader industry slowdown. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $5.28, while the company achieved a record free cash flow of $740 million — a figure that underscores disciplined working-capital management and aggressive production cuts. Adjusted operating margins reached 7.7%, nearly double the level recorded at the bottom of the previous cycle. The company also authorized a $1 billion share repurchase program and has been actively reducing dealer inventories, particularly in North America where inventories were cut by over 30% during the year. Looking ahead, management guided for 2026 net sales between $10.4 billion and $10.7 billion, with adjusted EPS targeted at approximately $5.50 to $6.00, signaling cautious optimism for gradual improvement.
DE Overview and Recent Performance
DE, Deere & Company, based in Moline, Illinois, is the largest agricultural equipment manufacturer in the world by revenue and market capitalization. The company operates through four primary segments: Production & Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture & Turf, Construction & Forestry, and Financial Services. This diversified structure provides Deere with revenue streams beyond pure agricultural machinery, including earthmoving, road building, and timber harvesting equipment.
For fiscal year 2025, Deere reported net sales and revenues of $45.68 billion, a decline of 12% from the prior year, while net income fell 29% to $5.03 billion, or $18.50 per diluted share. The Production & Precision Ag segment — which serves large-scale row-crop farming — faced the most pronounced demand weakness, with North American large ag equipment sales declining roughly 30%. By contrast, the Construction & Forestry segment demonstrated relative resilience, posting a 27% sales increase in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025. Deere has actively managed inventory levels, reducing large tractor inventories by more than 40% year-over-year at one point, and continued investing in technology such as its See & Spray precision spraying system. The company also raised its quarterly dividend to $1.62 per share. Management's fiscal 2026 net income guidance of $4.00 billion to $4.75 billion reflects an expectation that the large ag cycle may bottom during the year, though tariff-related margin pressure remains a significant variable.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most immediate contrast between AGCO and DE is scale. Deere's market capitalization is approximately 19 times larger than AGCO's, and its annual revenues are roughly 4.5 times greater. This scale advantage provides Deere with deeper R&D (research and development) budgets, broader dealer networks, and a more diversified revenue base. However, it also means Deere's financial results are more sensitive to the large agriculture cycle, which remains under significant pressure.
AGCO's geographic mix is a differentiating factor. The Europe/Middle East region accounts for roughly two-thirds of its segment sales, providing a degree of insulation from the North American large ag downturn that has weighed heavily on Deere's Production & Precision Ag segment. AGCO's EME (Europe/Middle East) segment delivered an operating margin of 16.8% in the most recent quarter, reflecting the strength of its premium Fendt brand and relatively healthier European farm economics — particularly in dairy and livestock.
From a valuation standpoint, AGCO currently trades at a lower forward P/E multiple compared to Deere, and its price-to-book (P/B) ratio sits well below Deere's. This valuation gap has attracted attention from analysts who view AGCO's restructuring story and free cash flow generation as underappreciated. On the other hand, Deere's brand strength, technology leadership in precision agriculture, and exposure to a recovering construction equipment market offer a different risk-reward profile. Both companies face tariff headwinds, but Deere has flagged a larger absolute dollar impact — estimated at around $500 million in fiscal 2025 — given its heavier North American manufacturing footprint.
In terms of recent momentum, both stocks have shown positive year-to-date returns through mid-2026, though relative performance has shifted in response to quarterly earnings surprises and tariff-related headlines. AGCO's structural transformation — including aggressive cost-cutting, share repurchases, and inventory normalization — has resonated with value-oriented investors, while Deere's scale and diversified model continue to appeal to those seeking broad industrial exposure alongside agriculture.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including trend consistency, valuation compression, and improving operational metrics, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward AGCO in the current environment. AGCO's lower valuation multiples, record free cash flow generation, aggressive share buyback program, and structural cost improvements provide a combination of downside cushion and potential upside catalyst that algorithmic models tend to favor when comparing stocks within the same sector. The company's adjusted operating margins have meaningfully improved relative to prior cycle troughs, and its European-heavy revenue mix offers some insulation from the North American large ag weakness that continues to pressure Deere's largest segment. That said, DE remains the dominant industry player with a formidable technology moat and a more diversified business model that includes a growing construction and forestry division. The AI verdict reflects a probabilistic assessment based on relative positioning rather than an absolute judgment on either company's long-term prospects. As market conditions evolve — particularly around trade policy, crop prices, and farmer sentiment — the relative attractiveness of these two stocks may shift accordingly.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AGCO is a Buy and DE is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AGCO’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileDE’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- AGCO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- DE’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AGCO’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while DE’s TA Score has 2 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AGCO’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- DE’s TA Score: 2 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
AGCO (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) experienced а -15.72% price change this week, while DE (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) price change was -5.65% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery industry was -3.97%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.17%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.07%.
Reported Earning Dates
AGCO is expected to report earnings on Nov 03, 2026.
DE is expected to report earnings on Aug 20, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery (-3.97% weekly)The industry designs and builds agricultural, construction and other large commercial and transportation equipment. Tractors, planters and harvesters, as well as rock-crushing, railroad, demolition and other construction implements are produced by this industry. Rapid urbanization and industrialization has been bolstering the expansion of the construction sector in the past few decades, thereby boosting demand for heavy equipment businesses. Caterpillar Inc., Deere & Company and Cummins Inc (Ex. Cummins Engine Inc) are some prominent companies in this industry.
| AGCO | DE | AGCO / DE | |
| Capitalization | 7.15B | 160B | 4% |
| EBITDA | 1.11B | 11.5B | 10% |
| Gain YTD | -1.614 | 28.003 | -6% |
| P/E Ratio | 14.13 | 33.58 | 42% |
| Revenue | 10.3B | 46.3B | 22% |
| Total Cash | 573M | 9.34B | 6% |
| Total Debt | 2.84B | 64.2B | 4% |
AGCO | DE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 53 | 59 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 18 Undervalued | 51 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 25 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 63 | 48 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 72 | 50 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 100 | 24 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 17 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AGCO's Valuation (18) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for DE (51). This means that AGCO’s stock grew somewhat faster than DE’s over the last 12 months.
DE's Profit vs Risk Rating (25) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is significantly better than the same rating for AGCO (100). This means that DE’s stock grew significantly faster than AGCO’s over the last 12 months.
DE's SMR Rating (48) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as AGCO (63). This means that DE’s stock grew similarly to AGCO’s over the last 12 months.
DE's Price Growth Rating (50) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as AGCO (72). This means that DE’s stock grew similarly to AGCO’s over the last 12 months.
DE's P/E Growth Rating (24) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is significantly better than the same rating for AGCO (100). This means that DE’s stock grew significantly faster than AGCO’s over the last 12 months.
| AGCO | DE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 82% | 3 days ago 63% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 73% | 3 days ago 57% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 61% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 61% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 59% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 18 days ago 61% | 10 days ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 82% | 3 days ago 51% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 50% |
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AGCO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AGCO has been closely correlated with CNH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AGCO jumps, then CNH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AGCO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGCO | 100% | -4.64% | ||
| CNH - AGCO | 76% Closely correlated | -0.68% | ||
| DE - AGCO | 70% Closely correlated | -1.13% | ||
| ALG - AGCO | 60% Loosely correlated | +0.79% | ||
| TEX - AGCO | 58% Loosely correlated | +1.00% | ||
| PCAR - AGCO | 56% Loosely correlated | -0.81% | ||
More | ||||
DE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DE has been closely correlated with CNH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DE jumps, then CNH could also see price increases.