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AGCO vs DE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AGCO Corporation (AGCO) vs. Deere & Company (DE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AGCO posted a modest 1.1% year‑over‑year revenue rise in its latest quarter, while Deere’s sales fell 28% YoY, reflecting divergent market momentum.
- AGCO’s earnings per share (EPS) rebounded to $1.30 (GAAP) after a loss‑making prior year; Deere’s EPS dropped to $4.55 in Q4 2024, a steep decline from $8.26 a year earlier.
- Both companies face a soft farming outlook, but Deere is contending with larger workforce reductions and broader profit compression.
- AGCO’s dividend was raised to $0.30 per share, underscoring cash‑flow confidence; Deere’s dividend remains unchanged at $1.56 per share.
- Tickeron’s AI models currently favor the stock with steadier trend consistency and higher cash‑generation margin.
Introduction
AGCO Corporation (AGCO) and Deere & Company (DE) dominate the global agricultural‑equipment landscape, yet their recent financial results and market sentiment have diverged. This comparison is relevant for both growth‑oriented traders watching short‑term catalysts and long‑term investors weighing sector exposure, dividend stability, and balance‑sheet resilience.
AGCO Overview and Recent Performance
AGCO designs, manufactures, and distributes a broad portfolio of tractors, combines, sprayers and precision‑ag technologies under brands such as Fendt®, Massey Ferguson®, and Valtra®. In its third‑quarter 2024 earnings release (early October 2024), the company reported net sales of $2.5 billion, a 4.7% YoY decline, but beat analyst expectations by roughly 9.6% on a constant‑currency basis. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) rose to $1.30 from a loss‑making prior quarter, and the firm posted an operating margin of 7.9%—the highest in recent years.
Key drivers include a rebound in European demand (sales up 27.5% YoY) and the continued rollout of smart farming solutions that command pricing premiums. Conversely, North American sales fell 32.1% YoY, reflecting tighter farm credit and elevated input costs. AGCO’s board declared a regular quarterly dividend of $0.30 per share (up from $0.29), signaling confidence in free‑cash‑flow generation despite a challenging macro environment.
Balance‑sheet metrics remain solid: net cash of $884 million versus long‑term debt of $2.73 billion, yielding a net‑debt‑to‑EBITDA ratio near 1.4×. The company’s free‑cash‑flow margin expanded to 23.1% in the quarter, providing headroom for continued share‑repurchases and technology investment.
DE Overview and Recent Performance
Deere & Company (DE) is the world’s largest manufacturer of high‑horsepower tractors, harvesters, and construction equipment. Its FY2024 fourth‑quarter report (November 21 2024) showed net sales of $9.28 billion, down 28% YoY, and net income of $1.245 billion, translating to $4.55 EPS—down more than 45% from the prior year’s $8.26 EPS. The decline mirrors weaker global crop pricing, reduced farmer capital spending, and a significant workforce reduction of roughly 300 employees in its Iowa and Illinois plants.
Deere’s operating margin slipped to 7.9% in Q4 2024, while its forward price‑to‑earnings (P/E) ratio sits near 13.7×, modestly above the sector average. The company continues to pay a $1.56 quarterly dividend, unchanged from earlier in the year, reflecting a commitment to shareholder returns despite earnings pressure.
On the balance sheet, Deere holds $399 million in cash and $13.1 billion in total debt, resulting in a higher leverage profile (net‑debt‑to‑EBITDA around 2.6×). Free‑cash‑flow generation remains robust relative to earnings, but the recent cash‑burn from plant restructuring and dealer‑finance exposure introduces volatility.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
- Business Model: Both companies sell equipment through dealer networks, but AGCO’s portfolio emphasizes mid‑range and premium brands, while Deere focuses on high‑horsepower, high‑margin machinery.
- Growth Drivers: AGCO’s growth is tied to precision‑ag adoption and European market recovery; Deere relies on large‑scale equipment sales and construction‑segment diversification.
- Recent Momentum: AGCO posted a modest sales bounce and dividend hike, whereas Deere experienced a sharp sales contraction and workforce cuts.
- Risk Factors: AGCO faces commodity‑price volatility and currency swings in Europe; Deere is exposed to higher leverage, labor‑related disruptions, and a broader macro‑economic slowdown.
- Sector Exposure: Both are in the industrial‑products sector, but AGCO’s diversified regional mix provides a slight buffer against a single‑region downturn.
- Market Sentiment: Analyst consensus rates Deere as a “Hold” (44% buy, 48% hold, 8% sell) with a modest forward‑P/E; AGCO enjoys a “Buy” tilt from several sell‑side houses following its earnings beat.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors—trend consistency, earnings stability, and free‑cash‑flow strength—Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a slightly higher probability of outperformance to AGCO. The company’s recent earnings beat, dividend increase, and improving cash‑margin suggest a more stable short‑term trajectory. Deere, while larger, is contending with a steeper sales decline and higher leverage, which introduces greater volatility. Consequently, AI‑driven bots that prioritize lower drawdown and consistent momentum are more likely to favor AGCO in the current environment.
Disclaimer
“The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.” Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AGCO is a Hold and DE is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AGCO’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileDE’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- AGCO’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- DE’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AGCO’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while DE’s TA Score has 7 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AGCO’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
- DE’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
AGCO (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) experienced а +1.23% price change this week, while DE (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) price change was +4.02% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery industry was +2.57%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +11.14%, and the average quarterly price growth was +12.61%.
Reported Earning Dates
AGCO is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
DE is expected to report earnings on Aug 20, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery (+2.57% weekly)The industry designs and builds agricultural, construction and other large commercial and transportation equipment. Tractors, planters and harvesters, as well as rock-crushing, railroad, demolition and other construction implements are produced by this industry. Rapid urbanization and industrialization has been bolstering the expansion of the construction sector in the past few decades, thereby boosting demand for heavy equipment businesses. Caterpillar Inc., Deere & Company and Cummins Inc (Ex. Cummins Engine Inc) are some prominent companies in this industry.
| AGCO | DE | AGCO / DE | |
| Capitalization | 8.25B | 162B | 5% |
| EBITDA | 1.1B | 11.5B | 10% |
| Gain YTD | 9.711 | 28.947 | 34% |
| P/E Ratio | 10.99 | 33.91 | 32% |
| Revenue | 10.4B | 46.3B | 22% |
| Total Cash | 515M | 9.34B | 6% |
| Total Debt | 2.69B | 64.2B | 4% |
AGCO | DE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 8 | 30 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 21 Undervalued | 40 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 25 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 47 | 47 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 51 | 28 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 99 | 25 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 32 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AGCO's Valuation (21) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as DE (40). This means that AGCO’s stock grew similarly to DE’s over the last 12 months.
DE's Profit vs Risk Rating (25) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is significantly better than the same rating for AGCO (100). This means that DE’s stock grew significantly faster than AGCO’s over the last 12 months.
DE's SMR Rating (47) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as AGCO (47). This means that DE’s stock grew similarly to AGCO’s over the last 12 months.
DE's Price Growth Rating (28) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as AGCO (51). This means that DE’s stock grew similarly to AGCO’s over the last 12 months.
DE's P/E Growth Rating (25) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is significantly better than the same rating for AGCO (99). This means that DE’s stock grew significantly faster than AGCO’s over the last 12 months.
| AGCO | DE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 67% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 55% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 67% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 65% | 16 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 56% |
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AGCO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AGCO has been closely correlated with CNH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AGCO jumps, then CNH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AGCO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGCO | 100% | +0.23% | ||
| CNH - AGCO | 75% Closely correlated | -0.76% | ||
| DE - AGCO | 67% Closely correlated | +1.59% | ||
| PCAR - AGCO | 63% Loosely correlated | +0.98% | ||
| ALG - AGCO | 60% Loosely correlated | -0.19% | ||
| TEX - AGCO | 58% Loosely correlated | +3.17% | ||
More | ||||
DE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DE has been closely correlated with CNH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DE jumps, then CNH could also see price increases.