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AGCO vs DE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AGCO Corporation (AGCO) vs. Deere & Company (DE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- DE has shown stronger recent momentum, gaining more than 35% year to date (YTD) in 2026, while AGCO has posted more modest gains.
- Both companies face a downcycle in agricultural equipment demand, but rising corn and soybean prices are improving the near-term outlook for farmer spending.
- AGCO carries a lower valuation and is leaning on precision agriculture (PTx) and aftermarket growth, whereas DE trades at a premium tied to its scale and technology leadership.
- Analyst sentiment is constructive on both names, with consensus "Buy" ratings, though DE has attracted several recent upgrades citing a North American recovery.
- AGCO lowered its 2026 guidance amid softer demand in Europe and Latin America, while DE's diversified construction and forestry segment has provided an earnings cushion.
Introduction
AGCO Corporation and Deere & Company are two of the most closely watched names in global agricultural machinery, yet they occupy different positions in the market. AGCO, the smaller and more diversified-by-brand player, competes through names such as Fendt and Massey Ferguson, while Deere is the industry leader known for its John Deere brand and rapidly expanding technology platform. For investors and traders evaluating the agricultural equipment sector, this stock comparison offers a useful lens on relative performance, market positioning, and how two competitors respond to the same cyclical pressures. Understanding their contrasting business models and recent momentum can help clarify which name may be better suited to a given investment approach.
AGCO Overview and Recent Performance
AGCO Corporation is a global manufacturer and distributor of agricultural equipment and precision agriculture technology, headquartered in Duluth, Georgia. Its portfolio spans premium brands including Fendt, Massey Ferguson, and PTx Trimble, with a strong presence in Europe, North America, and South America. In recent weeks, AGCO has traded in a range around $102 to $118 per share, with a consensus analyst rating of "Buy" and an average price target near $125.
Recent market activity has been shaped by mixed signals. AGCO reported second-quarter net sales of roughly $2.6 billion, down about 1% year over year, while adjusted earnings per share (EPS, a measure of profitability per outstanding share) improved. Management, however, lowered full-year 2026 guidance to $10.1–$10.2 billion in sales and adjusted EPS of $5.50–$5.75, citing cautious farmer spending, elevated input costs, and softer demand in Brazil, Western Europe, and North American small agriculture. Analysts have trimmed EPS estimates in response. On the positive side, AGCO continues to gain market share with Fendt in the Americas and is targeting $2 billion in precision agriculture (PTx) revenue by 2029, which supports the longer-term narrative even as near-term demand remains pressured.
DE Overview and Recent Performance
Deere & Company, headquartered in Moline, Illinois, is the world's largest agricultural equipment manufacturer, best known for its John Deere brand. It operates across three primary segments: Production & Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture & Turf, and Construction & Forestry. In recent weeks, DE has traded around $630 to $650 per share, with a consensus "Buy" rating and an average price target near $694.
DE has been a notable outperformer in 2026, gaining more than 35% YTD. The rally has been driven by a sharp rise in corn and soybean prices, which reached multi-year highs, and by expectations that North American farm equipment replacement demand will recover. Analysts at Baird and Evercore ISI upgraded the stock, citing an aged U.S. high-horsepower fleet and reduced dealer inventory as favorable setup conditions. First-quarter net sales rose 13% year over year to $9.61 billion, aided by small agriculture and construction equipment, even as net income declined amid cyclical compression. The Construction & Forestry segment has provided an earnings cushion, with operating profit up sharply, while the company's push into autonomy, precision technology, and software-as-a-service (SaaS, subscription-based software revenue) supports its premium valuation.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most striking contrast between AGCO and DE is scale and market positioning. DE generates more than four times AGCO's annual revenue, giving it deeper pricing power, broader distribution, and a larger recurring technology base. AGCO, by contrast, is leaner and more dependent on regional cycles in Europe and South America, which have been a source of recent weakness.
On growth drivers, both companies are investing heavily in precision agriculture and autonomy, but they approach it differently. DE has built an integrated platform around its own equipment, autonomy-ready tractors, and subscription software, while AGCO relies on the PTx Trimble joint venture to deliver retrofit solutions across mixed fleets. AGCO's aftermarket and parts business is a key margin lever, while DE's Construction & Forestry segment diversifies its earnings away from pure agriculture.
Risk profiles also differ. AGCO faces tariff and pricing pressure in Europe and softer demand in Latin America, and its lower valuation (a price-to-earnings, or P/E, ratio near 22 times forward earnings) partly reflects those headwinds. DE trades at a higher multiple tied to its leadership and technology premium, making it more sensitive to any disappointment in the pace of the agricultural recovery. In short, AGCO offers a value-oriented, technology-transition story, while DE represents a higher-multiple bet on a cyclical inflection in North American farm equipment.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward DE at present. The stock's trend consistency, stronger YTD relative performance, and clearer near-term catalysts—rising crop prices, recovering replacement demand, and recent analyst upgrades—suggest more favorable momentum and positioning. AGCO's lower valuation and precision agriculture potential offer a credible contrarian case, but softer guidance and weaker regional demand introduce greater uncertainty. The AI verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: DE appears better positioned to benefit from the current agricultural recovery, while AGCO may appeal more to investors willing to accept near-term volatility in exchange for a lower entry multiple.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AGCO is a StrongBuy and DE is a Buy.
AGCO's RSI Indicator recovers from oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for AGCO moved out of oversold territory on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 28 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 24 of the 28 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 43 of 61 cases where AGCO's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Following a +1.45% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AGCO advanced for three days, in 199 of 321 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
AGCO may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
AGCO moved below its 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for AGCO crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 11 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AGCO declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 64%.
The Aroon Indicator for AGCO entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 52 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.822) is normal, around the industry mean (2.561). P/E Ratio (14.664) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.171). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.931) is also within normal values, averaging (1.745). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.847) is also within normal values, averaging (1.128).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. AGCO’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AGCO’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock worse than average.
DE's RSI Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for DE moved out of oversold territory on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 24 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 19 of the 24 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 42 of 64 cases where DE's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Following a +1.81% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DE advanced for three days, in 200 of 334 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
DE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on DE as a result. In 54 of 83 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for DE turned negative on September 25, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 61%.
DE moved below its 50-day moving average on October 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for DE crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
The Aroon Indicator for DE entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 17 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. DE’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 82 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: DE's P/B Ratio (6.200) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.561). P/E Ratio (35.677) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.171). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.600) is also within normal values, averaging (1.745). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. DE's P/S Ratio (3.868) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.128).
AGCO | DE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 71 | 11 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 52 Fair valued | 82 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 17 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 61 | 49 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 71 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 96 | 9 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AGCO's Valuation (52) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as DE (82). This means that AGCO’s stock grew similarly to DE’s over the last 12 months.
DE's Profit vs Risk Rating (17) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is significantly better than the same rating for AGCO (100). This means that DE’s stock grew significantly faster than AGCO’s over the last 12 months.
DE's SMR Rating (49) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as AGCO (61). This means that DE’s stock grew similarly to AGCO’s over the last 12 months.
DE's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as AGCO (71). This means that DE’s stock grew similarly to AGCO’s over the last 12 months.
DE's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is significantly better than the same rating for AGCO (96). This means that DE’s stock grew significantly faster than AGCO’s over the last 12 months.
| AGCO | DE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 86% | 1 day ago 79% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 60% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 58% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 60% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 57% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 79% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 59% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AGCO’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while DE’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- AGCO’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- DE’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AGCO’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while DE’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AGCO’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- DE’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
AGCO (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) experienced а -0.03% price change this week, while DE (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) price change was -1.08% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery industry was -3.15%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -12.90%, and the average quarterly price growth was -6.66%.
Reported Earning Dates
AGCO is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
DE is expected to report earnings on Nov 25, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery (-3.15% weekly)The industry designs and builds agricultural, construction and other large commercial and transportation equipment. Tractors, planters and harvesters, as well as rock-crushing, railroad, demolition and other construction implements are produced by this industry. Rapid urbanization and industrialization has been bolstering the expansion of the construction sector in the past few decades, thereby boosting demand for heavy equipment businesses. Caterpillar Inc., Deere & Company and Cummins Inc (Ex. Cummins Engine Inc) are some prominent companies in this industry.
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AGCO and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AGCO has been closely correlated with DE. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AGCO jumps, then DE could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AGCO | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AGCO | 100% | +0.90% | ||
| DE - AGCO | 72% Closely correlated | +1.11% | ||
| TWI - AGCO | 58% Loosely correlated | +0.29% | ||
| OSK - AGCO | 56% Loosely correlated | -0.91% | ||
| LNN - AGCO | 54% Loosely correlated | +5.07% | ||
| TEX - AGCO | 53% Loosely correlated | -1.81% | ||
More | ||||
DE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DE has been closely correlated with CNH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DE jumps, then CNH could also see price increases.