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CNH vs DE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? CNH Industrial (CNH) vs. Deere & Company (DE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CNH Industrial has faced a sharp earnings miss and a Goldman Sachs downgrade, while Deere posted a Q1 beat and raised its FY2026 outlook.
- Deere’s Construction & Forestry segment is driving the strongest near‑term momentum, whereas CNH’s Agriculture segment remains pressured by low demand and tariff costs.
- Both companies carry significant tariff headwinds (≈$1 billion for Deere, >$1 billion for CNH) that compress margins in 2026.
- Deere trades at a higher forward NTM P/E (~30x) versus CNH’s ~22x, reflecting market optimism about Deere’s cycle bottom.
- CNH’s balance sheet shows $2.6 bn cash and $26.8 bn debt, giving it ample liquidity but higher financial leverage than Deere.
- Tickeron’s AI models currently favor the stock with steadier earnings growth and clearer catalyst timeline – Deere – but the advantage is modest and contingent on margin recovery.
Introduction
Investors seeking exposure to the global equipment sector often compare two industry leaders: CNH Industrial (CNH), a diversified maker of agricultural and construction machinery, and Deere & Company (DE), the iconic U.S. farmer‑equipment giant. Both firms serve overlapping markets yet differ in geographic mix, product focus, and financial positioning. This comparison is relevant for traders monitoring cycle‑sensitive stocks, income‑seeking investors evaluating dividend sustainability, and AI‑driven strategists looking for the robot‑friendly candidate.
CNH Overview and Recent Performance
CNH Industrial (CNH) operates across Agriculture, Construction, and Power‑train segments, with a strong presence in Europe, the Americas, and Asia‑Pacific. In the most recent quarter (Q4 2025) the company posted adjusted EPS of $0.19, beating consensus, and revenue of $5.16 bn (+5.8% YoY). However, EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) fell short, and the firm announced a 2026 guidance range that lowers EPS expectations to $0.35‑$0.45. The market reaction has been mixed: shares fell roughly 2% after the release, and Goldman Sachs downgraded CNH from Buy to Neutral, cutting its 12‑month price target to $10.50. The downgrade cited a “fairly valued” stock after a rally and highlighted ongoing tariff pressure (≈$1 bn pretax) and weaker demand in North‑American agriculture. CNH’s cash position stands at $2.58 bn, while total debt remains high at $26.8 bn, resulting in a net‑debt‑to‑cash ratio of about 10:1. The company’s VGM (Value‑Growth‑Momentum) scores show solid value (A) but weak momentum (F), reflecting recent earnings disappointment.
DE Overview and Recent Performance
Deere & Company (DE) is the leading U.S. manufacturer of tractors, harvesters, and construction equipment. In Q1 FY2026 it delivered $8.0 bn in equipment‑operations net sales (+18% YoY) and total revenue of $9.6 bn (+13% YoY). Adjusted EPS rose to $2.42, beating estimates by 17.5%, and the company raised its FY2026 net‑income guidance to $4.5‑$5.0 bn. The Construction & Forestry segment surged 34% YoY to $2.7 bn, driven by higher volumes and favorable currency effects. Deere also announced a $99 million settlement of a “right‑to‑repair” lawsuit and appointed Brent Norwood as CFO, signaling stability in leadership. Nonetheless, tariff exposure remains high (≈$1.2 bn pretax), and the Production & Precision Agriculture segment still faces margin pressure, with EBIT margins at 4.4% in Q1. At the close of the latest session DE traded around $575, yielding a forward NTM P/E of ~30.6x, well above the sector average of 21.3x, indicating premium valuation based on expected cycle recovery.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Business Model: CNH is more globally diversified, with a 40% revenue share from Europe and significant exposure to Power‑train and Commercial Vehicles. Deere relies heavily on North‑American agriculture and construction, with over 60% of sales from the U.S.
Growth Drivers: Deere’s near‑term upside stems from a booming Construction & Forestry order book and a recovering small‑ag segment. CNH’s growth is tied to the European agricultural equipment cycle and its push into electrified power‑trains, which remain longer‑term.
Recent Momentum: Deere posted a solid earnings beat and upward guidance, buoying investor sentiment. CNH’s earnings miss and downgrade have dampened momentum, reflected in its weaker VGM score.
Risk Factors: Both face tariff exposure and input‑cost inflation. CNH additionally contends with higher leverage and a weaker European demand outlook; Deere wrestles with margin compression in its high‑cost Production & Precision Agriculture division.
Valuation: Deere trades at a premium (NTM P/E ~30x) versus CNH (~22x). The spread reflects market belief in Deere’s faster cycle recovery but also raises the bar for earnings growth.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on the latest quantitative inputs—earnings consistency, margin trajectory, and catalyst timing—Tickeron’s AI models assign a modest probability advantage to Deere (DE). The model cites Deere’s stronger Q1 performance, clearer guidance lift, and higher win‑rate among construction‑focused bots. CNH (CNH) remains a viable candidate for value‑oriented strategies, yet its recent earnings miss and higher leverage reduce its short‑term AI favorability. The AI verdict is not a guarantee; it simply reflects current data trends and model probabilities.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CNH is a Hold and DE is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CNH’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileDE’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- CNH’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- DE’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CNH’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while DE’s TA Score has 7 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CNH’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- DE’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
CNH (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) experienced а -1.40% price change this week, while DE (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) price change was -1.02% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery industry was +1.52%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.62%, and the average quarterly price growth was -2.40%.
Reported Earning Dates
CNH is expected to report earnings on Jul 24, 2026.
DE is expected to report earnings on Aug 20, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery (+1.52% weekly)The industry designs and builds agricultural, construction and other large commercial and transportation equipment. Tractors, planters and harvesters, as well as rock-crushing, railroad, demolition and other construction implements are produced by this industry. Rapid urbanization and industrialization has been bolstering the expansion of the construction sector in the past few decades, thereby boosting demand for heavy equipment businesses. Caterpillar Inc., Deere & Company and Cummins Inc (Ex. Cummins Engine Inc) are some prominent companies in this industry.
| CNH | DE | CNH / DE | |
| Capitalization | 13.1B | 156B | 8% |
| EBITDA | 2.6B | 11.5B | 23% |
| Gain YTD | 16.077 | 24.400 | 66% |
| P/E Ratio | 33.13 | 32.72 | 101% |
| Revenue | 18.1B | 46.3B | 39% |
| Total Cash | 1.6B | 9.34B | 17% |
| Total Debt | 26.2B | 64.2B | 41% |
CNH | DE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 65 | 19 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 25 Undervalued | 28 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 32 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 86 | 47 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | 50 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 10 | 28 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 46 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CNH's Valuation (25) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as DE (28). This means that CNH’s stock grew similarly to DE’s over the last 12 months.
DE's Profit vs Risk Rating (32) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is significantly better than the same rating for CNH (100). This means that DE’s stock grew significantly faster than CNH’s over the last 12 months.
DE's SMR Rating (47) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CNH (86). This means that DE’s stock grew somewhat faster than CNH’s over the last 12 months.
DE's Price Growth Rating (50) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as CNH (58). This means that DE’s stock grew similarly to CNH’s over the last 12 months.
CNH's P/E Growth Rating (10) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as DE (28). This means that CNH’s stock grew similarly to DE’s over the last 12 months.
| CNH | DE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 63% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 60% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 72% | 3 days ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 59% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 62% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 58% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 67% | 7 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 54% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 57% |
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DE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DE has been closely correlated with CNH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DE jumps, then CNH could also see price increases.