CNH vs DE

Key Takeaways

• CNH Industrial (CNH) and Deere & Company (DE) are both navigating a cyclical downturn in agricultural equipment, with both management teams signaling that 2026 is expected to mark the trough before a recovery begins in 2027.
• Deere delivered fiscal 2025 net income of $5.03 billion on $45.68 billion in revenues, while CNH reported full-year 2025 net income of $505 million on $18.10 billion in revenues, underscoring a dramatic difference in scale and profitability.
• CNH has shown stronger year-to-date price appreciation in 2026 (up roughly 16%), while Deere's shares have faced pressure from tariff-related margin compression and a premium valuation multiple.
• Both companies are actively managing dealer inventory levels and production discipline, but Deere's broader diversification across small agriculture, construction, forestry, and financial services provides a more balanced earnings base.
• Trade policy uncertainty, low agricultural commodity prices, and elevated input costs remain headwinds for both stocks, though Deere's technology investments in precision agriculture are viewed as a longer-term competitive advantage.

Introduction

For investors monitoring the heavy machinery and agricultural equipment sector, CNH (CNH Industrial N.V.) and DE (Deere & Company) represent two distinct ways to gain exposure to the global farming and construction equipment cycle. While both companies manufacture tractors, combines, and construction machinery, their scale, market positioning, and financial profiles differ considerably. This stock comparison examines how these two industrial manufacturers are performing in the current market environment, what factors are driving sentiment, and which characteristics may appeal to different types of traders and investors navigating this late-cycle equipment downturn.

CNH Overview and Recent Performance

CNH (CNH Industrial N.V.), headquartered in Basildon, UK, is a global equipment manufacturer whose brand portfolio includes Case IH and New Holland in agriculture, as well as CASE Construction Equipment. The company operates across three segments: Agriculture, Construction, and Financial Services. In recent months, CNH shares have traded in the $10 to $11 range, with a 52-week span between $9.00 and $13.48. Year-to-date as of mid-July 2026, the stock has appreciated approximately 16%, recovering modestly from the lows posted in late 2025.

Full-year 2025 results reflected the broader industry-wide demand slowdown, with consolidated revenues declining 9% to $18.10 billion and net income dropping 60% to $505 million. Adjusted diluted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $0.55, down from $1.05 the prior year. On a more encouraging note, CNH generated $2.54 billion in operating cash flow for the year and industrial free cash flow swung to a positive $513 million from a negative $401 million in 2024. CEO Gerrit Marx has emphasized disciplined production planning, dealer inventory reduction, and the integration of precision technology as key priorities. The company's 2026 outlook calls for adjusted diluted EPS between $0.35 and $0.45, with agriculture segment net sales expected to decline up to 5% or remain flat year-over-year. CNH management has characterized 2026 as an "industry trough year" ahead of an anticipated recovery in 2027.

DE Overview and Recent Performance

DE (Deere & Company), based in Moline, Illinois, is the world's largest agricultural equipment manufacturer and a dominant force in construction and forestry machinery. Deere's scale is substantially larger than CNH's, with a market capitalization exceeding $120 billion compared to CNH's roughly $13 billion. The company's segments include Production & Precision Agriculture, Small Agriculture & Turf, Construction & Forestry, and Financial Services. Deere has invested heavily in precision agriculture technologies such as See & Spray and autonomous machinery, which have become central to its long-term growth narrative.

For fiscal 2025 ended November 2, Deere reported net income of $5.03 billion, or $18.50 per diluted share, on worldwide net sales and revenues of $45.68 billion, which declined 12% year-over-year. Fourth-quarter performance showed resilience, with net sales and revenues increasing 11% to $12.39 billion and EPS of $3.93 beating analyst expectations. However, shares sold off following the report as fiscal 2026 guidance projected net income in the range of $4.00 billion to $4.75 billion — below what Wall Street had anticipated. Tariffs have emerged as a significant margin headwind, with Deere estimating roughly $500 million in tariff-related costs for fiscal 2025 alone. Chairman and CEO John May has stated that 2026 "will mark the bottom of the large ag cycle," with expected growth in small agriculture & turf and construction & forestry partially offsetting persistent weakness in large agricultural equipment. The company's operating margins have compressed notably, with the Small Agriculture & Turf segment margin falling to just 1.0% in the fourth quarter of fiscal 2025, down from 10.1% a year earlier.

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Head-to-Head Comparison

The most immediate difference between CNH and DE is scale. Deere generates roughly 2.5 times CNH's annual revenue and approximately 10 times its net income, reflecting deeper market penetration, stronger pricing power, and a more extensive global dealership network. Deere's financial services arm, which provides equipment financing and leasing, also serves as a stabilizing force during equipment downturns, contributing consistent net income even when equipment sales contract.

From a valuation perspective, CNH trades at a far lower absolute price and market capitalization, but its price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio based on trailing twelve-month earnings has been elevated — above 30 — reflecting the sharp compression in profitability. Deere's valuation, while commanding a premium multiple on trough earnings, is supported by a stronger balance sheet and a track record of returning capital to shareholders through a growing dividend (most recently $1.62 per share quarterly) and share repurchases.

Recent momentum diverges somewhat. CNH shares have posted positive year-to-date returns in 2026, benefiting from a low starting point and investor anticipation of a cyclical recovery. Deere shares, by contrast, have been weighed down by tariff-driven margin erosion and the market's recalibration of forward earnings expectations. On the risk front, both companies face the same macro challenges — low crop prices, elevated farm input costs, and trade policy uncertainty — but CNH's smaller scale and lower geographic diversification make it relatively more vulnerable to regional demand shocks. Deere's heavy investment in precision agriculture and autonomous technology, while a long-term differentiator, also carries execution risk.

Sector exposure is another point of divergence. While both operate in agriculture and construction, Deere's Production & Precision Ag segment is weighted toward larger, higher-horsepower equipment for row-crop farming in North America, whereas CNH has a stronger relative presence in European and South American markets. Deere's Construction & Forestry segment is also more developed and integrated than CNH's construction business.

Tickeron AI Verdict

Based on observable trend consistency, relative stability of earnings, and diversification across business segments, Tickeron's AI-driven analysis would likely favor DE (Deere & Company) in the current environment — not on the basis of near-term price momentum, but rather on structural factors including balance sheet strength, earnings resilience, and a broader product and geographic portfolio that can better absorb sector-specific weakness. While CNH offers a higher-beta exposure to any cyclical recovery in agricultural equipment demand — and has demonstrated improving free cash flow generation — the probabilistic weight of evidence currently tilts toward Deere's combination of scale, technology leadership, and financial services stability. This assessment is probabilistic and grounded in the relative positioning of each company within a challenging late-cycle industrials landscape, rather than a definitive prediction of future stock performance.

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