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AIT vs FAST
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Applied Industrial Technologies (AIT) vs. Fastenal Company (FAST) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both AIT and FAST are industrial distributors, but they differ sharply in scale, business mix, and valuation.
- FAST is the much larger company by market capitalization, yet trades at a notably higher earnings multiple than AIT.
- AIT has posted stronger recent momentum, with automation and engineered solutions driving accelerating organic growth.
- FAST combines steadier, lower-volatility returns with a larger dividend yield and best-in-class profitability.
- Relative performance and valuation trade-offs define this comparison more than a single clear winner.
Introduction
Industrial distribution is a quietly powerful corner of the market, supplying the fasteners, maintenance supplies, automation, and technical services that keep factories and infrastructure running. AIT (Applied Industrial Technologies) and FAST (Fastenal Company) operate in this same sector but pursue different playbooks. One is a mid-cap, acquisition-driven technical specialist; the other is a large-cap distribution giant built on scale and a proprietary vending network. For investors weighing growth against stability, and momentum against valuation, this stock comparison highlights how two similar-looking businesses can present very different market positioning and relative performance.
AIT Overview and Recent Performance
Applied Industrial Technologies is a value-added distributor and technical solutions provider focused on industrial motion, fluid power, flow control, automation technologies, and related maintenance supplies. It operates through two segments: Service Center-Based Distribution and Engineered Solutions, the latter of which skews toward higher-value engineering and automation work.
Recent market activity has favored the stock, reflecting a strengthening demand backdrop. In its fiscal fourth quarter, AIT reported record sales and earnings, with organic sales growth of roughly 10%—its strongest in more than three years. Automation-related sales rose more than 20% in that period, and management noted positive order momentum across Engineered Solutions. For the full fiscal year, revenue reached approximately $4.97 billion, up from about $4.56 billion a year earlier. The company also raised its intermediate financial targets, aiming for $7 billion in sales and EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margins of 14% over the next five years. A 52-week gain above 30% and a beta below 1.0 underscore rising investor confidence, though the stock trades at a premium to its distribution peers.
FAST Overview and Recent Performance
Fastenal is one of the largest wholesale distributors of industrial and construction supplies in North America, serving a broad base of manufacturing and construction customers through branch locations, on-site locations, and a technology-enabled vending and inventory-management platform known as FMI (Fastenal Managed Inventory).
Recent weeks have brought steady, broad-based growth rather than dramatic acceleration. FAST reported double-digit daily sales growth in recent quarters, supported by customer contract signings, pricing, and favorable industrial activity. Its manufacturing end markets now account for roughly three-quarters of sales. The company's digital footprint continues to scale, with FMI and eBusiness channels representing a majority of revenue. Profitability remains a defining trait, with return on invested capital (ROIC) in the low 30% range and an operating margin near 21%. The stock's lower beta and roughly 1.9% dividend yield signal a more defensive profile. A leadership transition is also underway, with Jeff Watts set to succeed long-time CEO Dan Florness, adding a modest layer of execution uncertainty to an otherwise consistent story.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast is scale and business model. FAST is a large-cap operator with roughly $8.75 billion in trailing revenue, a vast branch network, and a defensive, dividend-paying profile. AIT is a mid-cap with about $4.97 billion in annual revenue, more concentrated exposure to engineered and technical solutions, and an active merger-and-acquisition (M&A) strategy.
Growth drivers diverge as well. AIT is leaning into secular themes—automation, robotics, and the build-out of data-center and advanced-manufacturing infrastructure—which support faster organic growth. FAST is compounding through contract signings and device installations, generating steadier but less explosive expansion.
Valuation cuts the other way. FAST trades at a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio above 40, versus roughly 30 for AIT, meaning investors pay a steeper premium for Fastenal's quality. Risk factors differ too: AIT carries integration and cyclicality risk tied to acquisitions, while FAST faces margin pressure from tariffs, cost inflation, and customer mix shifts toward larger accounts.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, momentum, and catalyst visibility, Tickeron's AI would likely tilt toward AIT in the current environment. The stock's accelerating organic growth, automation-led demand, and recently raised long-term targets suggest a stronger near-term trend and clearer catalyst path than FAST, whose premium valuation and margin headwinds may temper upside. That said, FAST offers greater stability and a more defensive profile, which may appeal to risk-averse strategies. The AI's preference is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting the trade-off between AIT's momentum and FAST's consistency.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AIT is a Hold and FAST is a Hold.
Momentum Indicator for AIT turns negative, indicating new downward trend
AIT saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on October 15, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 94 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 52 of the 94 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 55%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for AIT turned negative on October 13, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 25 of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 49%.
AIT moved below its 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AIT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 48%.
AIT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on September 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
The 10-day moving average for AIT crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
Following a +1.89% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AIT advanced for three days, in 223 of 335 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 176 of 279 cases where AIT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 63%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. AIT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 86 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (6.521) is normal, around the industry mean (4.049). P/E Ratio (29.800) is within average values for comparable stocks, (1.279). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.812) is also within normal values, averaging (2.538). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.476) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.402) is also within normal values, averaging (3.013).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
Momentum Indicator for FAST turns positive, indicating new upward trend
FAST saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 83 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 57 of the 83 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FAST just turned positive on September 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where FAST's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 28 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
FAST moved above its 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.98% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FAST advanced for three days, in 211 of 334 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FAST declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
FAST broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for FAST entered a downward trend on September 14, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. FAST’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 66, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 91 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: FAST's P/B Ratio (14.388) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (4.049). P/E Ratio (43.237) is within average values for comparable stocks, (1.279). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.357) is also within normal values, averaging (2.538). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.476) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.447) is also within normal values, averaging (3.013).
AIT | FAST | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 93 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 86 Overvalued | 91 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 6 | 57 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 43 | 30 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 42 | 29 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 20 | 28 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AIT's Valuation (86) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as FAST (91). This means that AIT’s stock grew similarly to FAST’s over the last 12 months.
AIT's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for FAST (57). This means that AIT’s stock grew somewhat faster than FAST’s over the last 12 months.
FAST's SMR Rating (30) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as AIT (43). This means that FAST’s stock grew similarly to AIT’s over the last 12 months.
FAST's Price Growth Rating (29) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as AIT (42). This means that FAST’s stock grew similarly to AIT’s over the last 12 months.
AIT's P/E Growth Rating (20) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as FAST (28). This means that AIT’s stock grew similarly to FAST’s over the last 12 months.
| AIT | FAST | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 74% | 4 days ago 46% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 55% | 4 days ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 49% | 4 days ago 57% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 50% | 4 days ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 65% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 67% | 8 days ago 63% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 48% | 20 days ago 49% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 39% | 4 days ago 51% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 6 days ago 49% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AIT’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while FAST’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- AIT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- FAST’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AIT’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while FAST’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AIT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- FAST’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AIT (@Electronics Distributors) experienced а -1.46% price change this week, while FAST (@Electronics Distributors) price change was -0.91% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronics Distributors industry was +0.06%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.05%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.99%.
Reported Earning Dates
AIT is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
FAST is expected to report earnings on Jan 19, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronics Distributors (+0.06% weekly)Electronics distributors are companies that are involved in distribution of one or more of the following: electronic components, computer products/ peripherals and software products & services. Several electronics distributors are also becoming the point of contact for technical/pre- & post-sale support in many cases, in an attempt to bolster their position in the market. Tariffs and/or cross-border trade barriers are some of the potential threats to the electronics supply chain, but that could also potentially lead to re-directing to markets where tariffs/restrictions are lower depending on demand. The industry is also vulnerable in the event of economic slowdowns. Arrow Electronics, Inc., SYNNEX Corporation and Versum Materials, Inc. are some of the major electronics distributors in the U.S.
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AIT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AIT has been loosely correlated with FERG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 60% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AIT jumps, then FERG could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AIT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AIT | 100% | -1.00% | ||
| FERG - AIT | 60% Loosely correlated | +1.25% | ||
| WCC - AIT | 59% Loosely correlated | -1.66% | ||
| MSM - AIT | 58% Loosely correlated | -0.24% | ||
| CNM - AIT | 56% Loosely correlated | +0.48% | ||
| FAST - AIT | 52% Loosely correlated | +1.27% | ||
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