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FAST vs MSM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Fastenal Company (FAST) vs. MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- FAST is a much larger industrial distributor (roughly $58 billion market cap) with faster, more consistent sales growth than MSM (about $7 billion).
- FAST posted accelerating double-digit revenue growth in recent quarters, while MSM is in an earlier-stage margin-focused turnaround.
- MSM has delivered stronger year-to-date share-price momentum, but its gains stem partly from recovery off a depressed base and a premium valuation reset.
- FAST carries a higher valuation multiple and a lower dividend yield; MSM offers a larger yield and a lower forward multiple.
- Both stocks sit in the industrial distribution sector and remain sensitive to manufacturing activity, pricing, and cost pressures.
Introduction
Fastenal Company (FAST) and MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (MSM) are two of North America's most recognized wholesale distributors of industrial and maintenance, repair, and operations (MRO) supplies. Although they occupy adjacent corners of the same sector, they differ sharply in scale, growth profile, and market positioning. This stock comparison is relevant for investors and traders seeking exposure to the industrial economy but weighing a large, steady compounder against a smaller, higher-momentum turnaround story. By examining relative performance, business drivers, and sentiment, readers can better understand the trade-offs each name presents in the current market environment.
FAST Overview and Recent Performance
FAST, founded in 1967 and headquartered in Winona, Minnesota, distributes fasteners, safety supplies, cutting tools, and other industrial and construction products. The company has built a wide "path-to-market" advantage through on-site locations, industrial vending devices, and a growing digital footprint. Recent market activity has reflected accelerating demand: in its most recent quarterly results, net sales rose roughly 15% year over year, supported by customer contract wins and a modest pickup in industrial production. Manufacturing accounts for more than three-quarters of revenue, with heavy manufacturing a key driver.
Sentiment has been broadly positive, though shares pulled back modestly after the latest report when management trimmed its full-year device-signing targets for automated vending equipment (measured in machine-equivalent units, or MEUs). Investors have also weighed margin dynamics, as a mix shift toward larger customers pressures gross margin even while operating leverage supports profitability. Over the past year, FAST has delivered strong relative performance and now trades near its 52-week high, with a trailing price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio above 40 and a dividend yield around 2%.
MSM Overview and Recent Performance
MSM is a distributor of metalworking and MRO products serving manufacturers and contractors across North America. In recent quarters the company has pursued a restructuring and productivity agenda centered on margin expansion, cost reduction, automation, and sales-force realignment, supported by a new chief financial officer. The results have begun to show: in its latest reported quarter, adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in well above consensus, and revenue grew close to 8% year over year, with pricing contributing meaningfully to the top line.
This improving execution has driven a substantial re-rating in the stock. MSM has climbed more than 50% year to date, and several analysts have raised price targets or initiated coverage with favorable ratings. At the same time, the company's multi-year revenue base remains relatively flat, and its turnaround is earlier-stage than FAST's established growth engine. MSM currently trades at a lower trailing multiple than FAST and offers a higher dividend yield near 2.8%.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two names is scale and maturity. FAST is a much larger, more diversified operator with roughly eight times the market capitalization of MSM. Its growth is driven by share gains, on-site expansion, and automated inventory management, producing steady, double-digit top-line momentum. MSM, by comparison, is a leaner turnaround story where margin recovery and operational efficiency are the primary catalysts rather than rapid revenue growth.
The two also diverge on momentum and valuation. MSM has posted stronger recent and year-to-date price gains, but this reflects recovery from a lower base and an expanding valuation multiple. FAST has compounded more steadily but now trades at a higher trailing P/E and lower yield. On risk, both companies are exposed to manufacturing cycles, pricing competition, and input-cost and tariff pressures. FAST's lower beta and cleaner balance sheet suggest lower volatility, whereas MSM carries more execution risk tied to its ongoing restructuring but also greater potential upside if margins keep improving.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely assign a modest edge to FAST at present. Its accelerating revenue growth, expanding operating margin, deep customer penetration, and lower-volatility profile represent a more durable and consistent trend signature. While MSM offers stronger recent price momentum and a more compelling valuation on a forward basis, that momentum is partly recovery-driven and its turnaround remains less established. A probabilistic framework tends to favor the steadier, more reliable trend in FAST, while acknowledging that MSM could outperform if its margin expansion continues to accelerate. This assessment reflects market positioning rather than a personal investment recommendation.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FAST is a Buy and MSM is a Hold.
Momentum Indicator for FAST turns positive, indicating new upward trend
FAST saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 83 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 60 of the 83 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for FAST just turned positive on September 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where FAST's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
FAST moved above its 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.09% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FAST advanced for three days, in 213 of 336 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FAST declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 49%.
FAST broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. FAST’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 30 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 91 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: FAST's P/B Ratio (14.639) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (4.047). P/E Ratio (43.992) is within average values for comparable stocks, (0.135). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (3.357) is also within normal values, averaging (2.538). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.468) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.447) is also within normal values, averaging (3.013).
MSM in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026
MSM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 31 of 37 cases where MSM's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The 10-day moving average for MSM crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on September 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 19 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Following a +3.56% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MSM advanced for three days, in 184 of 332 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 139 of 276 cases where MSM Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 50%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 39 of 67 cases where MSM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 58%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on MSM as a result. In 51 of 90 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for MSM turned negative on October 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 56%.
MSM moved below its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MSM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 26 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MSM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.480) is normal, around the industry mean (4.047). P/E Ratio (27.502) is within average values for comparable stocks, (0.135). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.487) is also within normal values, averaging (2.538). Dividend Yield (0.031) settles around the average of (0.468) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.724) is also within normal values, averaging (3.013).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
FAST | MSM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 37 | 31 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 91 Overvalued | 83 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 56 | 26 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 30 | 52 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 25 | 51 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 29 | 28 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MSM's Valuation (83) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as FAST (91). This means that MSM’s stock grew similarly to FAST’s over the last 12 months.
MSM's Profit vs Risk Rating (26) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as FAST (56). This means that MSM’s stock grew similarly to FAST’s over the last 12 months.
FAST's SMR Rating (30) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as MSM (52). This means that FAST’s stock grew similarly to MSM’s over the last 12 months.
FAST's Price Growth Rating (25) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as MSM (51). This means that FAST’s stock grew similarly to MSM’s over the last 12 months.
MSM's P/E Growth Rating (28) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as FAST (29). This means that MSM’s stock grew similarly to FAST’s over the last 12 months.
| FAST | MSM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 74% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 58% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 57% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 56% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 56% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 50% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 4 days ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 25 days ago 49% | 6 days ago 54% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 84% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 50% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FAST’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while MSM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- FAST’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- MSM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FAST’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MSM’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FAST’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 3 bearish.
- MSM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
FAST (@Electronics Distributors) experienced а +1.74% price change this week, while MSM (@Electronics Distributors) price change was -12.67% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronics Distributors industry was -0.39%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -3.51%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.01%.
Reported Earning Dates
FAST is expected to report earnings on Jan 19, 2027.
MSM is expected to report earnings on Jan 13, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronics Distributors (-0.39% weekly)Electronics distributors are companies that are involved in distribution of one or more of the following: electronic components, computer products/ peripherals and software products & services. Several electronics distributors are also becoming the point of contact for technical/pre- & post-sale support in many cases, in an attempt to bolster their position in the market. Tariffs and/or cross-border trade barriers are some of the potential threats to the electronics supply chain, but that could also potentially lead to re-directing to markets where tariffs/restrictions are lower depending on demand. The industry is also vulnerable in the event of economic slowdowns. Arrow Electronics, Inc., SYNNEX Corporation and Versum Materials, Inc. are some of the major electronics distributors in the U.S.
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FAST and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FAST has been loosely correlated with GWW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 55% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if FAST jumps, then GWW could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FAST | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAST | 100% | -1.56% | ||
| GWW - FAST | 55% Loosely correlated | -0.75% | ||
| FERG - FAST | 47% Loosely correlated | -0.20% | ||
| WSO - FAST | 42% Loosely correlated | -1.24% | ||
| QXO - FAST | 41% Loosely correlated | -4.63% | ||
| CNM - FAST | 39% Loosely correlated | -0.85% | ||
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