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FAST vs MSM
Fastenal Company (FAST) vs MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. (MSM) Earnings Preview: Q1 Growth in Focus
Key Takeaways
- Fastenal (FAST) gears up for Q1 2026 earnings on April 13, with analysts projecting EPS of $0.30 and revenue of $2.19 billion, signaling 15% EPS growth year-over-year.
- MSC Industrial Direct (MSM) reported Q2 fiscal 2026 results on April 1, posting adjusted EPS of $0.82 (up 14% YoY) but missing estimates, with revenue at $917.8 million (up 2.9% YoY).
- Fastenal demonstrates stronger scale with ~$8.2 billion annual revenue vs. MSM's ~$3.8 billion, alongside higher margins (net margin ~15% vs. ~5%).
- Both operate in industrial distribution but Fastenal leads in growth momentum via onsite locations and contracts, while MSM focuses on MRO (maintenance, repair, and operations) optimization.
- Analyst consensus favors Fastenal's stability; P/E ratios reflect premium valuation at ~44x vs. MSM's ~25x.
Earnings Context and Why This Comparison Matters
Fastenal Company and MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. are key players in the industrial distribution sector, supplying fasteners, tools, and MRO products to manufacturing and construction firms. Fastenal's vending and onsite solutions drive market share gains, while MSM emphasizes e-commerce and sales force efficiency. With Fastenal's Q1 earnings imminent, investors compare their trajectories amid industrial demand recovery, pricing power, and cost discipline. This matchup highlights divergent growth paths: Fastenal's consistent double-digit sales expansion versus MSM's margin-focused restructuring.
Fastenal Company Focus
Fastenal (FAST) will report fiscal Q1 2026 results before market open on April 13, followed by a conference call at 9:00 a.m. CT. Analysts anticipate EPS of $0.30, up 15% from $0.26 in Q1 2025, and revenue of $2.19 billion, reflecting ~12% growth. This follows Q4 2025's $2.03 billion sales (up 11.1% YoY) and EPS of $0.26 (in line with estimates), with full-year 2025 revenue hitting a record $8.2 billion (up 8.7% YoY). Key watches include daily sales growth from 241 new contracts in 2025, gross margin stability near 44%, and progress in FMI (Fastenal Managed Inventory) deployment exceeding 136,000 devices.
MSC Industrial Direct Co., Inc. Context
MSC Industrial Direct (MSM), with a September fiscal year-end, released Q2 fiscal 2026 (ended February 28) results on April 1. Adjusted EPS reached $0.82, up 14% YoY from $0.72 but shy of the $0.84 consensus; GAAP EPS was $0.76. Revenue grew 2.9% to $917.8 million, driven by 6.6% pricing but offset by 4% volume decline amid sales restructuring (130 roles cut). Adjusted operating margin improved to 7.5% (up 40 basis points YoY), with gross margin at 41.1%. First-half fiscal 2026 sales rose 3.5% to $1.88 billion. Q3 guidance targets 5-7% average daily sales growth and 9.7-10.3% adjusted operating margin.
Head-to-Head Earnings and Market Comparison
Fastenal outperforms on scale and consistency, with Q4 2025 net margin at 15.35% and ROE (return on equity) of 32.83%, versus MSM's ~5% margin. Fastenal's revenue trajectory (~11% quarterly growth) dwarfs MSM's 2.9%, bolstered by onsite presence and contract wins. Both face industrial slowdowns, but Fastenal's pricing (3-3.4% contribution) and technology edge mitigate risks. MSM counters with margin gains from restructuring, yet volume softness exposes execution risks. Valuation-wise, Fastenal trades at ~44x P/E (TTM EPS $1.10) reflecting growth premium; MSM at ~25x (TTM ~$3.72) appears cheaper but with slower trends. Sentiment tilts toward Fastenal's stability amid sector digitization.
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Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron AI currently favors FAST with ~65% probability over the next quarter, citing superior earnings quality, trend strength from contract momentum, and positioning in high-growth onsite distribution versus MSM's transitional volumes.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FAST is a StrongBuy and MSM is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FAST’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileMSM’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- FAST’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MSM’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FAST’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MSM’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FAST’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MSM’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
FAST (@Electronics Distributors) experienced а -0.47% price change this week, while MSM (@Electronics Distributors) price change was +1.02% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Electronics Distributors industry was +1.44%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.16%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.01%.
Reported Earning Dates
FAST is expected to report earnings on Jul 13, 2026.
MSM is expected to report earnings on Jul 01, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Electronics Distributors (+1.44% weekly)Electronics distributors are companies that are involved in distribution of one or more of the following: electronic components, computer products/ peripherals and software products & services. Several electronics distributors are also becoming the point of contact for technical/pre- & post-sale support in many cases, in an attempt to bolster their position in the market. Tariffs and/or cross-border trade barriers are some of the potential threats to the electronics supply chain, but that could also potentially lead to re-directing to markets where tariffs/restrictions are lower depending on demand. The industry is also vulnerable in the event of economic slowdowns. Arrow Electronics, Inc., SYNNEX Corporation and Versum Materials, Inc. are some of the major electronics distributors in the U.S.
| FAST | MSM | FAST / MSM | |
| Capitalization | 53.5B | 6.52B | 821% |
| EBITDA | 1.9B | 395M | 480% |
| Gain YTD | 17.312 | 41.558 | 42% |
| P/E Ratio | 41.21 | 31.37 | 131% |
| Revenue | 8.44B | 3.83B | 220% |
| Total Cash | 309M | 46.2M | 669% |
| Total Debt | 446M | 559M | 80% |
FAST | MSM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 19 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 85 Overvalued | 23 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 64 | 36 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 30 | 57 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 30 | 40 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 53 | 21 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MSM's Valuation (23) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is somewhat better than the same rating for FAST (85). This means that MSM’s stock grew somewhat faster than FAST’s over the last 12 months.
MSM's Profit vs Risk Rating (36) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as FAST (64). This means that MSM’s stock grew similarly to FAST’s over the last 12 months.
FAST's SMR Rating (30) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as MSM (57). This means that FAST’s stock grew similarly to MSM’s over the last 12 months.
FAST's Price Growth Rating (30) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as MSM (40). This means that FAST’s stock grew similarly to MSM’s over the last 12 months.
MSM's P/E Growth Rating (21) in the Wholesale Distributors industry is in the same range as FAST (53). This means that MSM’s stock grew similarly to FAST’s over the last 12 months.
| FAST | MSM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 49% | 3 days ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 47% | 3 days ago 63% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | N/A |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 54% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 52% | 3 days ago 52% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 46% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 52% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 50% | 10 days ago 58% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 47% | 3 days ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 41% | 3 days ago 45% |
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FAST and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FAST has been loosely correlated with GWW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 60% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if FAST jumps, then GWW could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To FAST | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| FAST | 100% | +0.39% | ||
| GWW - FAST | 60% Loosely correlated | +0.15% | ||
| MSM - FAST | 53% Loosely correlated | +0.97% | ||
| AIT - FAST | 49% Loosely correlated | +0.38% | ||
| WSO - FAST | 41% Loosely correlated | -1.01% | ||
| BXC - FAST | 39% Loosely correlated | -0.86% | ||
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