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ALG vs CNH
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Alamo Group (ALG) vs. CNH Industrial (CNH) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Different scale and focus: ALG is a specialized infrastructure and vegetation-management equipment maker, while CNH is a global agriculture and construction equipment manufacturer.
- Revenue trajectory: Alamo Group has posted steady year-over-year sales growth, while CNH Industrial is managing through a cyclical downturn in agricultural equipment demand.
- Earnings momentum: ALG's adjusted earnings per share (EPS) improved in recent quarters, whereas CNH's EPS remains sharply below prior-year levels despite beating estimates.
- Relative performance: CNH has delivered stronger share-price gains over the past year, partly reflecting investor anticipation of an agricultural cycle recovery.
- Risk profiles differ: ALG carries a stronger balance sheet with low leverage, while CNH faces tariff, freight-cost, and South American credit pressures.
- AI signal: Based on observable trend and momentum factors, Tickeron's AI models currently lean toward CNH for relative strength, though ALG shows more stable fundamentals.
Introduction
Investors weighing opportunities across the industrial and equipment landscape often encounter two very different names that serve overlapping customer bases. ALG (Alamo Group) is a mid-cap specialist in vegetation management and infrastructure maintenance equipment, while CNH (CNH Industrial) is a large global producer of agricultural and construction machinery. This stock comparison examines their business models, recent performance, market positioning, and sentiment to help traders and investors understand the trade-offs between a steadier niche operator and a cyclical industry leader. Both fundamental and momentum-oriented readers may find the contrast useful for assessing relative performance in the current market environment.
ALG Overview and Recent Performance
Alamo Group designs and manufactures equipment for vegetation management and infrastructure maintenance, selling to government, industrial, and agricultural customers. Recent weeks have shown solid operational execution: first-quarter 2026 net sales rose 6.7% year over year to roughly $417 million, and second-quarter sales increased about 7.6% to approximately $416 million. The company's Industrial Equipment division has been a key growth driver, supported by the Petersen Industries acquisition, while the Vegetation Management division has stabilized after a prolonged period of declines.
Sentiment toward ALG has been supported by a strong balance sheet, with net leverage below 1x, a recurring quarterly dividend, and management's focus on margin improvement through procurement and operational initiatives. At the same time, gross margin has faced pressure from sales mix, acquisition-related costs, and tariff-related input inflation. The shares have been more range-bound than CNH's, reflecting a steadier but less explosive price pattern.
CNH Overview and Recent Performance
CNH Industrial is a global manufacturer of agricultural and construction equipment, operating under brands such as Case IH, New Holland, and CASE Construction Equipment. The company has been navigating the trough of a cyclical downturn in agricultural machinery demand, marked by low commodity prices, high input costs, and an uncertain trade environment. Despite these headwinds, recent market activity has favored the stock: shares have climbed substantially year to date as investors position for a potential recovery.
Fundamentals remain challenged in the near term. First-quarter 2026 net income fell to about $10 million, and second-quarter net income of roughly $138 million was still down year over year. However, CNH raised its full-year 2026 outlook on the back of improving construction demand and stabilizing agriculture, which lifted investor sentiment. Tariffs, higher freight costs, and credit stress in South America continue to weigh on margins, tempering an otherwise constructive narrative.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
These two companies differ most clearly in scale, cyclicality, and market positioning. ALG is a niche, acquisition-driven operator with a market capitalization of roughly $2 billion, a strong balance sheet, and exposure to public-sector infrastructure and vegetation budgets. Its growth is steadier but more modest, and its end markets are less tied to the volatile agricultural cycle. CNH, by contrast, is a diversified global manufacturer with far larger revenue and a heavier dependence on the agricultural equipment cycle, which makes it more sensitive to commodity prices, farmer profitability, and trade policy.
On growth drivers, ALG benefits from infrastructure spending, dealer expansion, and tuck-in acquisitions, whereas CNH is leaning on an aging equipment fleet, inventory normalization, and its Precision Technology and connectivity initiatives for long-term upside. Recent momentum clearly favors CNH, whose shares have rallied sharply despite weaker earnings, while ALG has traded more cautiously. Risk factors also diverge: ALG faces margin pressure from tariffs and acquisition integration, while CNH contends with South American credit deterioration, freight costs, and elevated leverage in its financing arm.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, relative momentum, and market positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor CNH in the current environment. The stock has demonstrated stronger price momentum and improving guidance, supported by early signs that the agricultural cycle may be stabilizing and construction demand firming. ALG presents a more stable fundamental profile with lower leverage and consistent sales growth, but its more muted momentum and narrower catalysts make it a less compelling near-term trend candidate. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: if cyclical headwinds for CNH intensify, the relative balance could shift back toward ALG's steadier positioning.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ALG is a Hold and CNH is a Hold.
ALG in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on September 24, 2026
ALG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 28 of 37 cases where ALG's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 3 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.80% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ALG advanced for three days, in 193 of 309 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on September 17, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ALG as a result. In 42 of 78 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 54%.
ALG moved below its 50-day moving average on September 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ALG crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on September 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 9 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ALG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
The Aroon Indicator for ALG entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 52 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.521) is normal, around the industry mean (2.561). P/E Ratio (17.700) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.171). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.826) is also within normal values, averaging (1.745). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.227) is also within normal values, averaging (1.128).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 72 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. ALG’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly better than average sales and a considerably profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ALG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock worse than average.
CNH's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for CNH entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 198 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 159 of the 198 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CNH as a result. In 59 of 91 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CNH turned negative on September 18, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 35 of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 69%.
CNH moved below its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CNH crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 22 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CNH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CNH's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 31 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 10 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +6.85% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CNH advanced for three days, in 181 of 295 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
CNH may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CNH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 68 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.389) is normal, around the industry mean (2.561). P/E Ratio (46.080) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.171). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.362) is also within normal values, averaging (1.745). Dividend Yield (0.035) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.926) is also within normal values, averaging (1.128).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 85 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CNH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock worse than average.
ALG | CNH | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 62 | 68 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 52 Fair valued | 68 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 92 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 75 | 85 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 72 | 56 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 3 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ALG's Valuation (52) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as CNH (68). This means that ALG’s stock grew similarly to CNH’s over the last 12 months.
ALG's Profit vs Risk Rating (92) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as CNH (100). This means that ALG’s stock grew similarly to CNH’s over the last 12 months.
ALG's SMR Rating (75) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as CNH (85). This means that ALG’s stock grew similarly to CNH’s over the last 12 months.
CNH's Price Growth Rating (56) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as ALG (72). This means that CNH’s stock grew similarly to ALG’s over the last 12 months.
CNH's P/E Growth Rating (3) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ALG (49). This means that CNH’s stock grew somewhat faster than ALG’s over the last 12 months.
| ALG | CNH | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 58% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 54% | 1 day ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 69% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 70% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 62% | 10 days ago 61% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 4 days ago 67% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 80% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ALG’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while CNH’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ALG’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- CNH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ALG’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CNH’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ALG’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- CNH’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
ALG (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) experienced а -3.53% price change this week, while CNH (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) price change was -3.10% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery industry was -3.15%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -12.90%, and the average quarterly price growth was -6.66%.
Reported Earning Dates
ALG is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
CNH is expected to report earnings on Nov 09, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery (-3.15% weekly)The industry designs and builds agricultural, construction and other large commercial and transportation equipment. Tractors, planters and harvesters, as well as rock-crushing, railroad, demolition and other construction implements are produced by this industry. Rapid urbanization and industrialization has been bolstering the expansion of the construction sector in the past few decades, thereby boosting demand for heavy equipment businesses. Caterpillar Inc., Deere & Company and Cummins Inc (Ex. Cummins Engine Inc) are some prominent companies in this industry.
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ALG and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ALG has been loosely correlated with ACA. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ALG jumps, then ACA could also see price increases.