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AOS vs ITW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? A. O. Smith (AOS) vs. Illinois Tool Works (ITW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AOS and ITW operate in the industrials sector but differ in focus, with AOS centered on water heating and treatment solutions while ITW maintains a diversified portfolio across multiple end markets.
- Recent market activity shows ITW delivering stronger year-to-date performance and raising full-year guidance after solid first-quarter results, whereas AOS lowered its 2026 outlook following softer sales trends.
- Both companies face upcoming second-quarter earnings reports in late July 2026, with analysts monitoring revenue stability and margin trends amid mixed industrial demand.
- ITW exhibits greater scale, higher operating margins, and consistent capital returns through dividends and buybacks compared to the smaller AOS.
- Sector exposure highlights contrasts: AOS remains more sensitive to residential and commercial construction cycles, while ITW benefits from capex-related segments such as welding and electronics.
- Market sentiment favors ITW for its demonstrated resilience and efficiency initiatives, positioning it with relatively steadier momentum in the current environment.
Introduction
This comparison examines AOS and ITW, two established industrial companies with distinct business profiles. Investors and traders seeking to understand relative positioning within the industrials sector may find the analysis useful for evaluating performance differences, margin dynamics, and exposure to broader economic trends. The review focuses on recent market activity, operational developments, and observable factors that influence stock behavior without projecting future outcomes.
AOS Overview and Recent Performance
A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS) manufactures water heating equipment and water treatment solutions primarily for residential, commercial, and industrial applications. In recent weeks, the stock has reflected cautious sentiment following first-quarter results that missed estimates and prompted a lowered full-year 2026 outlook. Price action has remained range-bound amid concerns over flat sales trends and softer demand in key segments. Leadership transition announcements, including the retirement of the executive chairman, added to market attention but did not materially alter near-term performance drivers. Upcoming second-quarter earnings, scheduled for July 30, 2026, represent the next focal point for assessing revenue stability.
ITW Overview and Recent Performance
Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) operates a diversified portfolio of businesses spanning automotive, food equipment, test and measurement, welding, and other industrial segments. Recent market activity has shown relative strength, supported by first-quarter results that exceeded expectations and led to an upward revision in full-year 2026 earnings guidance. Margin expansion from enterprise initiatives and organic growth in capex-linked areas contributed to positive momentum. The stock has outperformed broader benchmarks year-to-date, reflecting investor focus on operational efficiency and capital return programs. Second-quarter earnings, expected on July 28, 2026, will provide further insight into segment trends.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AOS and ITW share industrial sector exposure yet diverge in business model and scale. AOS maintains a narrower focus on water-related products, making it more sensitive to housing and construction cycles, while ITW’s diversification across multiple end markets provides broader revenue stability. Recent momentum favors ITW, which raised guidance and expanded margins, compared with AOS’s tempered outlook. Risk factors differ accordingly: AOS carries higher exposure to discretionary spending fluctuations, whereas ITW contends with varying demand across its segments. Market sentiment currently reflects greater confidence in ITW’s execution on efficiency programs and capital allocation.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including trend consistency, margin stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a higher probabilistic preference to ITW. Stronger recent performance, raised earnings guidance, and diversified segment exposure provide a more consistent profile amid mixed industrial conditions. AOS shows more variability tied to specific end-market pressures. This assessment draws from verifiable performance differentials and does not constitute investment advice.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AOS is a StrongBuy and ITW is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AOS’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileITW’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- AOS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ITW’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AOS’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ITW’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AOS’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- ITW’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AOS (@Industrial Machinery) experienced а +0.47% price change this week, while ITW (@Industrial Machinery) price change was -0.65% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Industrial Machinery industry was -0.02%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.27%, and the average quarterly price growth was -1.64%.
Reported Earning Dates
AOS is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
ITW is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Industrial Machinery (-0.02% weekly)The industry makes and maintains machines for consumers, the industry, and most other companies. While it has traditionally been categorized as heavy industry, some smaller companies are also branching into the light category. The industry is pivotal in providing the equipment for production in businesses like agriculture, mining, industry and construction, gas, electricity and water utilities. It also supplies supporting equipment for almost all sectors of the economy, such as equipment for heating, and air conditioning of buildings. Illinois Tool Works Inc., Parker-Hannifin Corporation and Rockwell Automation Inc are some of the major U.S. companies operating in this industry.
| AOS | ITW | AOS / ITW | |
| Capitalization | 8.65B | 83.5B | 10% |
| EBITDA | 759M | 4.74B | 16% |
| Gain YTD | -5.118 | 21.063 | -24% |
| P/E Ratio | 17.74 | 26.55 | 67% |
| Revenue | 3.81B | 16.2B | 23% |
| Total Cash | 181M | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 677M | 9.15B | 7% |
AOS | ITW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 24 | 44 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 15 Undervalued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 34 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 36 | 13 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 52 | 28 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 62 | 33 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AOS's Valuation (15) in the Building Products industry is significantly better than the same rating for ITW (88) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that AOS’s stock grew significantly faster than ITW’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's Profit vs Risk Rating (34) in the Industrial Machinery industry is significantly better than the same rating for AOS (100) in the Building Products industry. This means that ITW’s stock grew significantly faster than AOS’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's SMR Rating (13) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as AOS (36) in the Building Products industry. This means that ITW’s stock grew similarly to AOS’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's Price Growth Rating (28) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as AOS (52) in the Building Products industry. This means that ITW’s stock grew similarly to AOS’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's P/E Growth Rating (33) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as AOS (62) in the Building Products industry. This means that ITW’s stock grew similarly to AOS’s over the last 12 months.
| AOS | ITW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 61% | 5 days ago 37% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 60% | 5 days ago 53% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 56% | 5 days ago 56% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 57% | 5 days ago 48% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 58% | 5 days ago 54% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 52% | 5 days ago 52% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 57% | 7 days ago 51% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 62% | 13 days ago 40% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 47% | 5 days ago 44% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 53% | 5 days ago 41% |
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AOS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AOS has been closely correlated with ITW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AOS jumps, then ITW could also see price increases.
ITW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ITW has been closely correlated with AOS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ITW jumps, then AOS could also see price increases.