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AOS vs ITW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? A. O. Smith (AOS) vs. Illinois Tool Works (ITW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Illinois Tool Works (ITW) outperforms A. O. Smith (AOS) year-to-date with approximately 10% gains compared to AOS's 3%, reflecting stronger recent momentum.
- AOS trades at a lower trailing P/E ratio (price-to-earnings, 16.8) versus ITW's 25.7, suggesting potential relative value in the water heating sector.
- ITW recently announced a 7% dividend increase, bolstering its appeal for income-focused investors amid resilient cash flows.
- Both stocks face upcoming Q1 earnings reports around late April, with analysts anticipating scrutiny on revenue trends and margins.
- ITW's diversified industrial segments provide broader exposure, while AOS remains focused on water technologies with flat recent revenue growth.
- Tickeron's comparison tool indicates AOS as a stronger long-term buy, but ITW leads in current stability and size.
Introduction
Investors tracking the industrials sector often compare A. O. Smith (AOS) and Illinois Tool Works (ITW), two established manufacturers navigating similar economic headwinds like supply chain pressures and demand fluctuations in construction and automotive markets. This stock comparison highlights their relative performance, business models, and market positioning in recent weeks. Traders seeking short-term momentum or value plays, and long-term investors eyeing dividend reliability, will find insights into growth drivers, risks, and sentiment shifts amid broader industrial trends.
AOS Overview and Recent Performance
A. O. Smith Corporation (AOS) is a leading manufacturer of residential and commercial water heaters, boilers, and water treatment products, serving the HVAC (heating, ventilation, and air conditioning) and water systems markets. In recent market activity, the stock has experienced share weakness, declining around 9% over the past three months amid modest revenue growth and flat quarterly sales year-over-year. Sentiment has been influenced by Q4 2025 earnings that beat EPS (earnings per share) expectations but highlighted slowing demand, with analysts noting valuation concerns despite a recent quarterly dividend declaration. Trading near its 52-week low around $64, AOS reflects caution in housing-related sectors, though potential acquisitions like Leonard Valve could support future product expansion.
ITW Overview and Recent Performance
Illinois Tool Works Inc. (ITW) operates as a diversified global manufacturer across seven segments, including automotive OEM (original equipment manufacturer), food equipment, and specialty products like fasteners and welding systems. Recent performance has been resilient, with year-to-date gains near 10% and a strong Q4 2025 finish showing over 4% revenue growth and EPS beats. A 7% dividend hike underscores robust cash generation, boosting investor confidence despite broader industrial slowdowns. Trading around $270, mid its 52-week range, ITW's momentum stems from operational efficiency and segment diversity, though analysts watch for Q1 demand stability.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
AOS and ITW differ markedly in scale and focus: AOS's niche in water technologies yields higher ROE (return on equity, 29%) but exposes it to residential construction cycles, while ITW's diversification across industrials mitigates risks with steady cash flows. Growth drivers contrast too—AOS shows 0% quarterly revenue growth versus ITW's recent 4% uptick—shaping relative momentum where ITW leads YTD. Risk factors include AOS's higher sensitivity to housing slowdowns versus ITW's broader sector exposure, including automotive resilience. Valuation trade-offs favor AOS's lower P/E for value seekers, but ITW's premium reflects superior margins and dividend growth. Market sentiment tilts toward ITW's stability in recent weeks, though both await earnings catalysts.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward Illinois Tool Works (ITW) based on stronger trend consistency, YTD outperformance, and recent dividend reinforcement amid industrial resilience. AOS offers value appeal with a discounted valuation, but its recent weakness and flat growth temper short-term probabilities. Relative positioning suggests ITW for momentum trades, with both warranting monitoring post-earnings for shifting catalysts.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full Disclaimers and Limitations.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AOS is a Hold and ITW is a Buy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AOS’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileITW’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- AOS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ITW’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AOS’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ITW’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AOS’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- ITW’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AOS (@Industrial Machinery) experienced а +3.29% price change this week, while ITW (@Industrial Machinery) price change was +1.86% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Industrial Machinery industry was +1.88%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.62%, and the average quarterly price growth was +4.30%.
Reported Earning Dates
AOS is expected to report earnings on Jul 23, 2026.
ITW is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Industrial Machinery (+1.88% weekly)The industry makes and maintains machines for consumers, the industry, and most other companies. While it has traditionally been categorized as heavy industry, some smaller companies are also branching into the light category. The industry is pivotal in providing the equipment for production in businesses like agriculture, mining, industry and construction, gas, electricity and water utilities. It also supplies supporting equipment for almost all sectors of the economy, such as equipment for heating, and air conditioning of buildings. Illinois Tool Works Inc., Parker-Hannifin Corporation and Rockwell Automation Inc are some of the major U.S. companies operating in this industry.
| AOS | ITW | AOS / ITW | |
| Capitalization | 8.14B | 74.1B | 11% |
| EBITDA | 795M | 4.74B | 17% |
| Gain YTD | -10.721 | 5.180 | -207% |
| P/E Ratio | 15.75 | 23.90 | 66% |
| Revenue | 3.81B | 16.2B | 24% |
| Total Cash | 204M | 827M | 25% |
| Total Debt | 656M | 9.15B | 7% |
AOS | ITW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 9 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 14 Undervalued | 19 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 59 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 35 | 12 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 55 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 64 | 43 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AOS's Valuation (14) in the Building Products industry is in the same range as ITW (19) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that AOS’s stock grew similarly to ITW’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's Profit vs Risk Rating (59) in the Industrial Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AOS (100) in the Building Products industry. This means that ITW’s stock grew somewhat faster than AOS’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's SMR Rating (12) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as AOS (35) in the Building Products industry. This means that ITW’s stock grew similarly to AOS’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's Price Growth Rating (55) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as AOS (61) in the Building Products industry. This means that ITW’s stock grew similarly to AOS’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's P/E Growth Rating (43) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as AOS (64) in the Building Products industry. This means that ITW’s stock grew similarly to AOS’s over the last 12 months.
| AOS | ITW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 43% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 56% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 47% | 2 days ago 52% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 50% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 50% | 2 days ago 48% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 55% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 60% | 13 days ago 41% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 49% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 42% |
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AOS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AOS has been closely correlated with ITW. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AOS jumps, then ITW could also see price increases.
ITW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ITW has been closely correlated with AOS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ITW jumps, then AOS could also see price increases.