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ITW vs ZWS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Illinois Tool Works (ITW) vs. Zurn Elkay Water Solutions (ZWS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ITW is a diversified industrial manufacturer spanning seven segments, while ZWS is a pure-play water management business, creating a contrast between broad cyclical exposure and focused thematic growth.
- ITW generates roughly $16 billion in annual revenue with best-in-class operating margins near 25%, whereas ZWS is a smaller, faster-growing operation with adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margins that have expanded sharply in recent years.
- Recent momentum differs: ZWS has delivered double-digit core sales growth and steady margin improvement, while ITW's growth has been more modest and mixed across consumer-facing segments.
- Risk profiles diverge, with ITW carrying meaningful leverage tied to its capital-return strategy and ZWS operating with very low net debt leverage and ample liquidity for M&A (mergers and acquisitions).
- For deeper context, readers can review ITW Major News and ITW Today's Price Move, as well as ZWS Major News and ZWS Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated strategies are positioning across the market, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Investors evaluating industrial and building-products equities often weigh a diversified, dividend-paying blue chip against a focused, growth-oriented specialist. ITW and ZWS represent two distinct ways to gain exposure to manufacturing, construction, and commercial end markets. This stock comparison examines their relative performance, market positioning, and risk factors to help both long-term investors and active traders assess which profile better aligns with current conditions. While both companies touch nonresidential construction, their scale, growth drivers, and capital structures differ considerably, making the head-to-head a useful reference for portfolio allocation decisions.
ITW Overview and Recent Performance
Illinois Tool Works (ITW) is a diversified industrial manufacturer whose seven segments include Automotive OEM (original equipment manufacturer), Food Equipment, Test & Measurement and Electronics, Welding, Polymers & Fluids, Construction Products, and Specialty Products. In its most recent reported quarter, revenue rose about 5% year over year to roughly $4.0 billion, while GAAP (generally accepted accounting principles) earnings per share increased about 12%. Operating margin expanded to approximately 25.4%, supported by enterprise initiatives.
Recent market activity has reflected mixed sentiment. Capital-expenditure-related segments such as Welding and Test & Measurement and Electronics showed stronger demand, while consumer-facing and food-equipment areas faced softer conditions. Management raised full-year earnings guidance, and share repurchases remain a central element of the capital-return strategy. Still, modest organic growth and sensitivity to tariffs, inflation, and supply-chain costs have kept the stock's relative performance measured in recent weeks.
ZWS Overview and Recent Performance
Zurn Elkay Water Solutions (ZWS) is a pure-play water management company based in Milwaukee, designing and manufacturing water safety and control, flow systems, hygienic and environmental, and filtered drinking water products for commercial and residential spaces. In its latest reported quarter, sales rose about 11% on both a core and reported basis, with adjusted EBITDA margin expanding roughly 160 basis points year over year to around 26.8%.
The company has sustained a multi-year trend of margin expansion tied to its Zurn Elkay Business System, product-mix improvements, and productivity initiatives. Recent market activity has reflected steady momentum, with nonresidential demand partially offsetting residential softness. Net debt leverage remains low at roughly 0.5 times, and the company has expanded its revolving credit facility while continuing to evaluate acquisition opportunities. Analysts have maintained a broadly constructive stance, though the stock trades at a premium valuation relative to larger industrial peers.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between ITW and ZWS is business model breadth. ITW is a large, diversified conglomerate-style industrial with mature, cash-generative franchises and a heavy emphasis on share buybacks and dividends. ZWS is a focused water specialist with a narrower but faster-growing revenue base and a heavier tilt toward commercial and institutional construction.
Growth profiles also differ. ZWS has posted stronger top-line growth and more pronounced margin expansion in recent quarters, while ITW's growth is steadier but more subdued, with strength concentrated in capital-equipment segments. On risk, ITW carries substantial leverage tied to its shareholder-return strategy and faces broad tariff and inflation exposure across many end markets. ZWS operates with minimal net debt leverage and benefits from specification-driven, recurring replacement demand, though it trades at a richer earnings multiple and is more concentrated in construction-linked end markets.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, relative momentum, and the stability of its earnings trajectory, Tickeron's AI would likely favor ZWS in the current environment. The stock's sustained double-digit growth, ongoing margin expansion, and low-leverage balance sheet present a more consistent and clearly defined catalyst set than ITW's more mixed segment-level performance. That said, ITW retains appeal for stability-oriented investors given its scale, diversified cash flows, and disciplined capital returns. The AI's preference is probabilistic rather than definitive and should be weighed alongside each investor's own time horizon and risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ITW is a Buy and ZWS is a StrongBuy.
ITW in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026
The 10-day moving average for ITW crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ITW as a result. In 49 of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ITW just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where ITW's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 24 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
ITW moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.98% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ITW advanced for three days, in 162 of 324 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 88 of 217 cases where ITW Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 41%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ITW moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 10 of the 39 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 26%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 26 of 61 cases where ITW's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 43%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ITW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 41%.
ITW broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ITW’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 96 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ITW's P/B Ratio (27.648) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.805). P/E Ratio (25.402) is within average values for comparable stocks, (36.482). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.543) is also within normal values, averaging (1.879). Dividend Yield (0.024) settles around the average of (0.032) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.699) is also within normal values, averaging (186.943).
ZWS's RSI Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for ZWS moved out of oversold territory on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 35 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 28 of the 35 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.99% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ZWS advanced for three days, in 184 of 300 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
ZWS may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 130 of 204 cases where ZWS Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 64%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 28, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ZWS as a result. In 46 of 84 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ZWS turned negative on October 28, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 27 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 60%.
ZWS moved below its 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ZWS crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 21 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ZWS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 61%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 92, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. ZWS’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 77 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.346) is normal, around the industry mean (10.189). P/E Ratio (26.506) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-16.372). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.523) is also within normal values, averaging (0.975). Dividend Yield (0.010) settles around the average of (0.050) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.373) is also within normal values, averaging (251.106).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 85 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
ITW | ZWS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 96 Overvalued | 77 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 29 | 63 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 13 | 51 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 45 | 70 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 36 | 85 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ZWS's Valuation (77) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as ITW (96). This means that ZWS’s stock grew similarly to ITW’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's Profit vs Risk Rating (29) in the Industrial Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ZWS (63). This means that ITW’s stock grew somewhat faster than ZWS’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's SMR Rating (13) in the Industrial Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ZWS (51). This means that ITW’s stock grew somewhat faster than ZWS’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as ZWS (70). This means that ITW’s stock grew similarly to ZWS’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's P/E Growth Rating (36) in the Industrial Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ZWS (85). This means that ITW’s stock grew somewhat faster than ZWS’s over the last 12 months.
| ITW | ZWS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 26% | 3 days ago 80% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 43% | 3 days ago 64% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 54% | 3 days ago 55% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 52% | 3 days ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 53% | 3 days ago 58% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 50% | 3 days ago 60% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 11 days ago 50% | 10 days ago 61% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 41% | 3 days ago 61% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 50% | 3 days ago 80% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 41% | 3 days ago 64% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ITW’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while ZWS’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- ITW’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- ZWS’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ITW’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ZWS’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ITW’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- ZWS’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ITW (@Industrial Machinery) experienced а +0.86% price change this week, while ZWS (@Industrial Specialties) price change was -2.97% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Industrial Machinery industry was -2.81%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -15.65%, and the average quarterly price growth was -22.45%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Industrial Specialties industry was -2.49%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -10.07%, and the average quarterly price growth was -24.03%.
Reported Earning Dates
ITW is expected to report earnings on Feb 04, 2027.
ZWS is expected to report earnings on Feb 09, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Industrial Machinery (-2.81% weekly)The industry makes and maintains machines for consumers, the industry, and most other companies. While it has traditionally been categorized as heavy industry, some smaller companies are also branching into the light category. The industry is pivotal in providing the equipment for production in businesses like agriculture, mining, industry and construction, gas, electricity and water utilities. It also supplies supporting equipment for almost all sectors of the economy, such as equipment for heating, and air conditioning of buildings. Illinois Tool Works Inc., Parker-Hannifin Corporation and Rockwell Automation Inc are some of the major U.S. companies operating in this industry.
@Industrial Specialties (-2.49% weekly)Companies in the industrial specialties industry process basic materials and minerals into various specialty products, such as flat and safety glass, fire retardant products, paints and coatings. Examples of companies operating in this industry are Sherwin-Williams Company, PPG Industries, Inc. and RPM International Inc.
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ITW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ITW has been closely correlated with IR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ITW jumps, then IR could also see price increases.
ZWS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ZWS has been closely correlated with XYL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ZWS jumps, then XYL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ZWS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ZWS | 100% | -0.87% | ||
| XYL - ZWS | 74% Closely correlated | -2.22% | ||
| LECO - ZWS | 70% Closely correlated | +1.18% | ||
| HLIO - ZWS | 67% Closely correlated | -21.05% | ||
| HLMN - ZWS | 67% Closely correlated | -2.46% | ||
| PNR - ZWS | 65% Loosely correlated | -2.36% | ||
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