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ASTE vs CAT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Astec Industries (ASTE) vs. Caterpillar (CAT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Astec Industries (ASTE) is a mid-cap heavy equipment manufacturer (~$1.3 billion market cap) focused on road-building and aggregate processing, while Caterpillar (CAT) is a global industrial giant (~$311 billion market cap) with a diversified portfolio spanning construction, mining, and energy.
- Both companies posted record sales in their most recent reporting periods, driven by infrastructure spending and robust demand, but CAT has faced greater margin compression from tariff-related manufacturing costs.
- ASTE delivered full-year 2025 adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) of $140.7 million, a 25.8% increase year-over-year, and guided for $170–$190 million in 2026, reflecting confidence in organic and inorganic growth.
- CAT generated $67.6 billion in full-year 2025 revenue — an all-time high — and ended the year with a record $51.2 billion backlog, though adjusted EPS (earnings per share) declined 13% to $19.06 amid tariff pressures.
- ASTE's smaller scale and acquisition-driven growth strategy contrast with CAT's entrenched global presence, massive free cash flow generation, and powerful Energy & Transportation segment tied to data center and power generation demand.
- In terms of relative performance, ASTE has posted a year-to-date gain of approximately 27%, while CAT has significantly outperformed the broader industrials sector with a roughly 86% rise over the past twelve months.
Introduction
Comparing ASTE (Astec Industries) and CAT (Caterpillar) brings together two companies that operate in the same industrial ecosystem but at dramatically different scales. Astec, headquartered in Chattanooga, Tennessee, is a focused manufacturer of equipment for road building, asphalt production, and aggregate processing with annual revenues of approximately $1.4 billion. Caterpillar, based in Irving, Texas, is one of the world's largest industrial manufacturers with 2025 revenues exceeding $67 billion. This comparison is particularly relevant for investors evaluating whether a nimble mid-cap infrastructure play or a diversified blue-chip industrial leader better suits their portfolio positioning in the current market environment, where federal infrastructure funding, energy demand, and tariff dynamics are reshaping the heavy equipment landscape.
ASTE Overview and Recent Performance
ASTE (Astec Industries) designs and manufactures specialized equipment used throughout the road construction lifecycle — from crushing and processing raw materials to paving finished surfaces. The company operates through two segments: Infrastructure Solutions (asphalt and concrete plants, paving equipment, thermal systems) and Materials Solutions (rock crushers, screens, conveyors, and related aftermarket parts). Over the past year, ASTE shares have risen approximately 43–45%, reflecting improving fundamentals and strategic execution. In its most recent full-year report for 2025, the company posted record quarterly net sales of $400.6 million and full-year revenue of $1.41 billion, up 8.1% year-over-year. Adjusted EBITDA reached $140.7 million, a 25.8% improvement over the prior year. A backlog expansion of 22.5% to $514.1 million underscored healthy demand. Management also guided for 2026 adjusted EBITDA in the $170–$190 million range, citing positive customer sentiment, progress on internal efficiency initiatives, and the stabilizing effect of federal infrastructure funding. The July 2025 acquisition of TerraSource, a materials processing equipment manufacturer with over $150 million in annual revenue, has meaningfully expanded ASTE's Materials Solutions segment and boosted aftermarket parts exposure.
CAT Overview and Recent Performance
CAT (Caterpillar Inc.) is a diversified industrial powerhouse organized into three primary segments: Construction Industries, Resource Industries, and Energy & Transportation. In 2025 — its centennial year — CAT achieved the highest full-year sales and revenues in company history at $67.6 billion, with a record single-quarter performance of $19.1 billion in Q4. Despite this top-line strength, adjusted profit per share declined 13% to $19.06, as higher manufacturing costs — particularly tariff-related expenses — compressed operating margins. The company generated enterprise operating cash flow of $11.7 billion and returned $7.9 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. A standout development has been the record $51.2 billion backlog, up 71% year-over-year, driven by robust ordering activity across construction, resource, and energy markets. The Energy & Transportation segment has been the primary growth engine, fueled by surging demand for power generation equipment tied to data center expansion. CAT's shares have rallied strongly — roughly 86% over the past twelve months — outperforming the broader industrials sector by a wide margin. Looking ahead, management expects 2026 revenue growth near the upper end of its 5–7% CAGR (compound annual growth rate) target, though incremental tariff costs of approximately $2.6 billion are expected to keep margins near the low end of its target range.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The contrast between ASTE and CAT is fundamentally a comparison of scale, diversification, and growth strategy. CAT's $67.6 billion revenue base is roughly 48 times larger than ASTE's $1.41 billion, and CAT's free cash flow generation of $9.5 billion dwarfs ASTE's $20.7 million in full-year 2025 free cash flow. In terms of market positioning, ASTE is more narrowly exposed to U.S. road construction and aggregate processing cycles, which makes it a higher-beta play on domestic infrastructure spending. CAT, by contrast, benefits from global diversification across construction, mining, and energy markets — including the fast-growing data center power generation segment — which provides multiple, partially uncorrelated demand drivers. On margin resilience, ASTE has demonstrated improving profitability with adjusted EBITDA margin expanding 140 basis points to 10.0% for full-year 2025, while CAT's adjusted operating margin contracted from 20.7% to 17.2%, pressured by tariffs. Valuation-wise, ASTE trades at a forward P/E (price-to-earnings ratio) of approximately 13.9x, while CAT commands a forward P/E near 29x — a premium reflecting CAT's market leadership, scale advantages, and superior capital return capacity. Sector exposure also diverges: ASTE is a concentrated infrastructure and construction materials play, whereas CAT's Energy & Transportation segment (now frequently referred to as Power & Energy) increasingly ties its growth narrative to secular trends in electrification, data centers, and energy transition.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, relative momentum, and catalyst visibility, Tickeron's AI-driven analysis would likely favor CAT in the current environment. The reasoning rests on several measurable factors: CAT's record $51.2 billion backlog provides a multi-quarter revenue runway that ASTE's $514 million backlog cannot match in absolute terms; CAT's Energy & Transportation segment is riding a structural demand wave linked to data center buildouts that has proven to be a powerful and sustained catalyst; and CAT's share price momentum over the trailing twelve months has been exceptionally strong, outpacing most industrial peers. That said, ASTE is not without its own merits — the company's improving profitability trajectory, successful integration of the TerraSource acquisition, and relatively attractive forward valuation could appeal to investors seeking targeted exposure to U.S. infrastructure spending with a smaller, higher-growth profile. In probabilistic terms, CAT's broader diversification, stronger cash flows, and secular tailwinds from energy and data center markets provide a more durable foundation for sustained outperformance. Neither stock is without risk — CAT faces significant margin headwinds from tariffs, while ASTE remains sensitive to domestic construction cycles and has a smaller financial cushion — but the AI assessment leans toward CAT based on the weight of observable catalysts and trend strength.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ASTE is a Hold and CAT is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ASTE’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green whileCAT’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- ASTE’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- CAT’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ASTE’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CAT’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ASTE’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- CAT’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 7 bearish.
Price Growth
ASTE (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) experienced а +2.38% price change this week, while CAT (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) price change was +1.15% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery industry was +1.77%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.38%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.36%.
Reported Earning Dates
ASTE is expected to report earnings on Aug 05, 2026.
CAT is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery (+1.77% weekly)The industry designs and builds agricultural, construction and other large commercial and transportation equipment. Tractors, planters and harvesters, as well as rock-crushing, railroad, demolition and other construction implements are produced by this industry. Rapid urbanization and industrialization has been bolstering the expansion of the construction sector in the past few decades, thereby boosting demand for heavy equipment businesses. Caterpillar Inc., Deere & Company and Cummins Inc (Ex. Cummins Engine Inc) are some prominent companies in this industry.
| ASTE | CAT | ASTE / CAT | |
| Capitalization | 1.3B | 409B | 0% |
| EBITDA | 104M | 15B | 1% |
| Gain YTD | 30.827 | 56.084 | 55% |
| P/E Ratio | 50.35 | 44.26 | 114% |
| Revenue | 1.48B | 70.8B | 2% |
| Total Cash | 76.9M | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 393M | 43.1B | 1% |
ASTE | CAT | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 17 | 65 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 45 Fair valued | 78 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 7 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 88 | 20 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 39 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 68 | 11 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
ASTE's Valuation (45) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CAT (78). This means that ASTE’s stock grew somewhat faster than CAT’s over the last 12 months.
CAT's Profit vs Risk Rating (7) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is significantly better than the same rating for ASTE (100). This means that CAT’s stock grew significantly faster than ASTE’s over the last 12 months.
CAT's SMR Rating (20) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is significantly better than the same rating for ASTE (88). This means that CAT’s stock grew significantly faster than ASTE’s over the last 12 months.
CAT's Price Growth Rating (39) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as ASTE (47). This means that CAT’s stock grew similarly to ASTE’s over the last 12 months.
CAT's P/E Growth Rating (11) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ASTE (68). This means that CAT’s stock grew somewhat faster than ASTE’s over the last 12 months.
| ASTE | CAT | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 73% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 53% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 49% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 26 days ago 73% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 73% | 10 days ago 56% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 66% |
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ASTE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ASTE has been loosely correlated with HY. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ASTE jumps, then HY could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ASTE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ASTE | 100% | +0.32% | ||
| HY - ASTE | 65% Loosely correlated | -0.15% | ||
| MTW - ASTE | 62% Loosely correlated | +2.50% | ||
| TEX - ASTE | 58% Loosely correlated | +1.91% | ||
| CNH - ASTE | 51% Loosely correlated | +4.99% | ||
| CMCO - ASTE | 49% Loosely correlated | +3.80% | ||
More | ||||
CAT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CAT has been loosely correlated with TEX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 61% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CAT jumps, then TEX could also see price increases.