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CAT vs CNH
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) vs. CNH Industrial (CNH) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CAT is a diversified heavy-equipment and power-generation leader riding record backlog and data-center demand, while CNH is a smaller agriculture-and-construction specialist still working through a soft farm cycle.
- CAT recently posted sharp revenue and earnings-per-share (EPS) growth, whereas CNH reported thinner margins and sharply lower net income despite modestly higher sales.
- CAT has materially outperformed CNH over the past year but pulled back from recent highs on valuation and interest-rate concerns.
- CNH has raised its 2026 outlook and benefited from tariff relief, yet faces weak North American agricultural demand and rising credit delinquencies in Brazil.
- In broad terms, CAT represents a premium-priced momentum and backlog story, while CNH offers a lower-priced cyclical-recovery proposition.
Introduction
Investors weighing exposure to industrial and agricultural machinery often compare CAT and CNH as two contrasting ways to play the same broad equipment sector. CAT, or Caterpillar Inc., is a global heavyweight spanning construction, mining, and energy, while CNH, or CNH Industrial, focuses on agricultural and construction equipment under brands such as Case IH and New Holland. Their stock comparison matters because the two companies sit at different points in their respective cycles, with divergent growth drivers, margin profiles, and risk factors. For traders and longer-term investors alike, understanding this relative performance and market positioning can clarify whether momentum, value, or cyclical recovery better fits a given strategy.
CAT Overview and Recent Performance
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) designs and manufactures construction and mining equipment, diesel and gas engines, turbines, and related services. Recent quarters have been defined by unusually strong demand. In its most recent reporting periods, revenue rose roughly 22% to 24% year over year, and management cited a record backlog—approaching $72 billion in the latest quarter, up about 92% year over year—as a foundation for continued momentum. A key driver has been power generation tied to data centers and artificial intelligence infrastructure, where demand for large gensets and turbines has accelerated. The Construction Industries segment has also grown briskly, helped by higher volumes and pricing.
Despite this operational strength, CAT shares have pulled back in recent weeks from their 52-week highs. Analysts have pointed to concerns over "peak backlog," higher interest rates, tariff-related margin pressure, and a valuation that had moved well above historical norms. The company has maintained its full-year growth outlook, but investors are now weighing strong demand against a premium multiple, making near-term sentiment more mixed than the underlying results alone would suggest.
CNH Overview and Recent Performance
CNH Industrial (CNH) manufactures agricultural and construction equipment, supported by a captive financial services arm. Unlike CAT, CNH has been operating against a still-soft agricultural backdrop, with farm profitability pressured by weak commodity prices and elevated input costs. In its latest quarter, consolidated revenue rose modestly, but net income fell sharply as tariffs compressed margins in both the agriculture and construction segments. The company has, however, raised its full-year guidance, citing better pricing, cost discipline, and lower-than-expected tariff impacts, and it has benefited from recent tariff relief on agricultural equipment.
Sentiment around CNH has improved during the year, with the stock advancing strongly year to date before cooling in recent sessions. Supporting factors include normalization of dealer inventories, aging equipment fleets, and progress in a strategic sourcing program aimed at margin recovery. Counterweights remain significant: North American agricultural demand is historically weak, South America—particularly Brazil—has shown sharply lower sales and rising credit delinquencies in the financing business, and profitability remains thin compared with larger peers.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Although both companies sell heavy equipment, their stock comparison reveals sharp contrasts in scale, cyclicality, and momentum. CAT is a diversified, multi-segment industrial with meaningful energy exposure and a record backlog, giving it strong revenue visibility but also a premium valuation that leaves less room for disappointment. CNH is far smaller by revenue and more concentrated in agriculture, making it more sensitive to farm income cycles but also positioned as a potential beneficiary if the agricultural market inflects higher. Growth drivers differ as well: CAT's near-term story leans on data-center power demand and infrastructure, while CNH's hinges on cost savings, precision-agriculture technology, and a hoped-for recovery in equipment demand.
Risk profiles also diverge. CAT faces margin pressure from tariffs and capacity expansion, plus the risk that its elevated multiple de-rates if rates stay high or backlog growth slows. CNH carries a weaker margin base, concentrated South American credit exposure, and an agriculture market that management expects to recover only gradually. In terms of market sentiment, CAT retains stronger recent earnings momentum, while CNH has attracted value-oriented attention for its lower valuation and improving guidance despite thinner profitability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor CAT at present, though with measured confidence. The case rests on more consistent revenue and earnings growth, a record backlog that supports trend continuity, and a clearer near-term catalyst in power and data-center demand. CNH offers a cheaper valuation and improving guidance, but its thinner margins, weaker agricultural end-market, and credit concerns suggest less reliable momentum. In probabilistic terms, CAT appears better positioned on trend consistency and catalysts, while CNH may appeal more to investors specifically seeking a cyclical recovery setup. This reflects relative positioning rather than a definitive prediction of future returns.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CAT is a Hold and CNH is a Hold.
CAT in downward trend: 10-day moving average moved below 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026
The 10-day moving average for CAT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 12 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CAT as a result. In 32 of 73 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 44%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CAT turned negative on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 26 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 58%.
CAT moved below its 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 50-day moving average for CAT moved below the 200-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CAT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator entered the oversold zone -- be on the watch for CAT's price rising or consolidating in the future. That's also the time to consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +2.13% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CAT advanced for three days, in 277 of 376 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
CAT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 196 of 306 cases where CAT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 64%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 21 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CAT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 91 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: CAT's P/B Ratio (17.543) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (2.561). P/E Ratio (31.714) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.171). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.435) is also within normal values, averaging (1.745). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. CAT's P/S Ratio (4.892) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.128).
CNH's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for CNH entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 198 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 159 of the 198 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 80%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CNH as a result. In 59 of 91 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CNH turned negative on September 18, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 35 of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 69%.
CNH moved below its 50-day moving average on October 08, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for CNH crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 22 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CNH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CNH's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 31 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 10 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +6.85% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CNH advanced for three days, in 181 of 295 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
CNH may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. CNH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 68 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.389) is normal, around the industry mean (2.561). P/E Ratio (46.080) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.171). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.362) is also within normal values, averaging (1.745). Dividend Yield (0.035) settles around the average of (0.016) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.926) is also within normal values, averaging (1.128).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 85 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CNH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 81, placing this stock worse than average.
CAT | CNH | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 70 | 68 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 91 Overvalued | 68 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 85 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 59 | 56 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 21 | 3 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CNH's Valuation (68) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as CAT (91). This means that CNH’s stock grew similarly to CAT’s over the last 12 months.
CAT's Profit vs Risk Rating (31) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is significantly better than the same rating for CNH (100). This means that CAT’s stock grew significantly faster than CNH’s over the last 12 months.
CAT's SMR Rating (19) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is significantly better than the same rating for CNH (85). This means that CAT’s stock grew significantly faster than CNH’s over the last 12 months.
CNH's Price Growth Rating (56) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as CAT (59). This means that CNH’s stock grew similarly to CAT’s over the last 12 months.
CNH's P/E Growth Rating (3) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as CAT (21). This means that CNH’s stock grew similarly to CAT’s over the last 12 months.
| CAT | CNH | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 58% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 44% | 1 day ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 58% | 3 days ago 69% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 70% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 74% | 10 days ago 61% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 4 days ago 67% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 80% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CAT’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while CNH’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CAT’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- CNH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CAT’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CNH’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CAT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 6 bearish.
- CNH’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
CAT (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) experienced а -4.29% price change this week, while CNH (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) price change was -3.84% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery industry was -3.15%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -12.90%, and the average quarterly price growth was -6.66%.
Reported Earning Dates
CAT is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
CNH is expected to report earnings on Nov 09, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery (-3.15% weekly)The industry designs and builds agricultural, construction and other large commercial and transportation equipment. Tractors, planters and harvesters, as well as rock-crushing, railroad, demolition and other construction implements are produced by this industry. Rapid urbanization and industrialization has been bolstering the expansion of the construction sector in the past few decades, thereby boosting demand for heavy equipment businesses. Caterpillar Inc., Deere & Company and Cummins Inc (Ex. Cummins Engine Inc) are some prominent companies in this industry.
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CNH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CNH has been closely correlated with AGCO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 77% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CNH jumps, then AGCO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CNH | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNH | 100% | +0.52% | ||
| AGCO - CNH | 77% Closely correlated | +0.90% | ||
| TEX - CNH | 55% Loosely correlated | -1.81% | ||
| LNN - CNH | 53% Loosely correlated | +5.07% | ||
| ASTE - CNH | 50% Loosely correlated | -1.67% | ||
| CAT - CNH | 48% Loosely correlated | -4.89% | ||
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