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CAT vs CNH
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) vs. CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CAT delivered record full-year 2025 revenue of $67.6 billion, driven by surging demand in its Power & Energy segment tied to data center and electrification megatrends.
- CNH faces a cyclically challenged agricultural equipment market, with full-year 2025 revenue declining 9% to $18.1 billion and further demand weakness projected for 2026.
- Both companies contend with meaningful tariff-related margin pressure, though CAT has offset this with volume growth while CNH contends with shrinking end-market demand.
- CAT enters 2026 with a record $51.2 billion backlog, while CNH guides for adjusted EPS (earnings per share) of just $0.35–$0.45, reflecting an industry trough.
- Market sentiment diverges sharply: CAT has delivered a triple-digit percentage gain over the past year, whereas CNH has traded near 52-week lows amid analyst downgrades.
- Risk profiles differ substantially — CAT benefits from multi-year secular tailwinds, while CNH faces a cyclical trough with recovery not broadly anticipated until 2027.
Introduction
Investors evaluating the heavy machinery and industrial equipment sector often encounter two prominent publicly traded names: Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) and CNH Industrial N.V. (CNH). While both companies design and manufacture equipment that builds and feeds the world, their recent trajectories, end-market exposures, and growth narratives have diverged considerably. This stock comparison examines how these two industrial manufacturers stack up in the current market environment — one riding a wave of data center and energy infrastructure demand, the other navigating a pronounced agricultural downcycle. For traders and long-term investors alike, understanding the relative positioning of CAT and CNH may help contextualize sector allocation decisions within broader portfolio strategy.
CAT Overview and Recent Performance
Caterpillar Inc., the world's largest manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, off-highway engines, and industrial turbines, posted its strongest revenue year in company history in 2025. Full-year sales and revenues reached $67.6 billion, a 4% increase from the prior year, while fourth-quarter revenue of $19.1 billion represented an all-time quarterly record — up 18% year-over-year. The standout performer has been the Power & Energy segment (formerly Energy & Transportation), which reported a 23% sales increase in the fourth quarter, fueled largely by reciprocating engine demand for data center applications tied to cloud computing and generative artificial intelligence workloads. Caterpillar's backlog swelled to a historic $51.2 billion, reflecting sustained multi-year demand visibility.
On the profitability side, however, CAT has not been immune to cost pressures. Tariffs and elevated manufacturing expenses compressed adjusted operating margins from 20.7% in 2024 to 17.2% in 2025. Full-year adjusted EPS declined 13% to $19.06. Still, the company generated $11.7 billion in enterprise operating cash flow and returned $7.9 billion to shareholders through dividends and share repurchases. The stock has reflected the market's optimism about the company's secular growth positioning, with the share price more than doubling over the trailing twelve-month period. In recent weeks, however, the stock has pulled back from highs above $1,070, reflecting broader market rotation and profit-taking.
CNH Overview and Recent Performance
CNH Industrial N.V., a global manufacturer of agricultural and construction equipment under brands including Case IH, New Holland, and CASE Construction Equipment, has faced a markedly different operating environment. The agricultural machinery market — CNH's largest revenue driver — has been in a pronounced cyclical downturn, pressured by low crop commodity prices, elevated farm input costs, and an uncertain global trade policy landscape. Full-year 2025 consolidated revenues fell 9% to $18.1 billion, while net income dropped 60% to $505 million. Full-year adjusted diluted EPS came in at $0.55, down from $1.05 in 2024.
Management has emphasized disciplined production cuts and dealer inventory destocking — producing fewer units than retail demand to rightsize channel inventories. These actions, while strategically prudent, have weighed heavily on segment margins. Agriculture adjusted EBIT (earnings before interest and taxes) margin fell to 6.2% from 10.5% a year earlier, and Construction adjusted EBIT margin dropped to just 2.3%. Looking ahead to 2026, CNH guided for adjusted EPS between $0.35 and $0.45, with global agricultural equipment retail demand expected to decline an additional 5% before a potential recovery in 2027. The stock has reflected this challenging backdrop, trading near levels that prompted JPMorgan to downgrade the shares to Underweight in late 2025.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The contrast between CAT and CNH is less about operational quality — both are well-managed industrial manufacturers — and more about end-market exposure and where each sits in its respective cycle. Caterpillar derives meaningful revenue from construction, mining, and energy markets that are currently benefiting from secular investment themes: data center buildout, grid modernization, LNG (liquefied natural gas) infrastructure, and autonomous mining fleets. The energy transition and AI infrastructure spend appear to be multi-decade tailwinds, providing a structural growth narrative that extends beyond typical industrial cycles.
CNH Industrial, by contrast, derives approximately 80% of its industrial net sales from agriculture — a sector that is inherently cyclical and currently in a trough. Farmer income has been squeezed by lower grain prices and stubbornly high fertilizer and fuel costs. Trade policy uncertainty, including potential retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural exports, adds another layer of risk. On the construction side, CNH's exposure is smaller and focused more on light and medium equipment, where residential construction weakness has been a headwind. While CNH has made notable operational improvements — including its Raven acquisition for precision agriculture technology — the near-term earnings trajectory remains constrained.
From a market positioning standpoint, the divergence is stark. CAT trades at a premium valuation reflecting its growth profile and backlog visibility, while CNH trades at depressed multiples consistent with trough-level earnings. Balance sheet strength favors CAT, which ended 2025 with $10 billion in cash and robust free cash flow generation, enabling aggressive capital return. CNH carries a net debt position of over $24 billion when including its financial services arm, though industrial free cash flow turned positive in 2025 after a negative 2024.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, relative momentum, and fundamental positioning, Tickeron's AI-driven analytical framework would likely favor Caterpillar (CAT) in the current market environment. The combination of a record backlog, secular demand catalysts in power generation for data centers, strong free cash flow generation, and consistent upward earnings estimate revisions provides a more favorable trend profile than the cyclical headwinds facing CNH Industrial. While CNH may offer longer-term value at cyclically depressed levels — particularly if the anticipated 2027 agricultural recovery materializes — the near-to-medium-term trend and momentum characteristics appear to align more constructively with CAT. As always, this assessment reflects a probabilistic evaluation of available data and market conditions rather than a definitive prediction of future outcomes.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CAT is a Buy and CNH is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CAT’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileCNH’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CAT’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- CNH’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CAT’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CNH’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CAT’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 6 bearish.
- CNH’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CAT (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) experienced а -9.55% price change this week, while CNH (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) price change was -2.82% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery industry was -4.02%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.69%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.85%.
Reported Earning Dates
CAT is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
CNH is expected to report earnings on Aug 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery (-4.02% weekly)The industry designs and builds agricultural, construction and other large commercial and transportation equipment. Tractors, planters and harvesters, as well as rock-crushing, railroad, demolition and other construction implements are produced by this industry. Rapid urbanization and industrialization has been bolstering the expansion of the construction sector in the past few decades, thereby boosting demand for heavy equipment businesses. Caterpillar Inc., Deere & Company and Cummins Inc (Ex. Cummins Engine Inc) are some prominent companies in this industry.
| CAT | CNH | CAT / CNH | |
| Capitalization | 373B | 12.8B | 2,914% |
| EBITDA | 15B | 2.6B | 577% |
| Gain YTD | 42.106 | 13.011 | 324% |
| P/E Ratio | 40.30 | 32.25 | 125% |
| Revenue | 70.8B | 18.1B | 391% |
| Total Cash | N/A | 1.6B | - |
| Total Debt | 43.1B | 26.2B | 165% |
CAT | CNH | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 64 | 10 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 89 Overvalued | 21 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 19 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 20 | 86 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 53 | 59 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 11 | 10 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CNH's Valuation (21) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is significantly better than the same rating for CAT (89). This means that CNH’s stock grew significantly faster than CAT’s over the last 12 months.
CAT's Profit vs Risk Rating (19) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is significantly better than the same rating for CNH (100). This means that CAT’s stock grew significantly faster than CNH’s over the last 12 months.
CAT's SMR Rating (20) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is significantly better than the same rating for CNH (86). This means that CAT’s stock grew significantly faster than CNH’s over the last 12 months.
CAT's Price Growth Rating (53) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as CNH (59). This means that CAT’s stock grew similarly to CNH’s over the last 12 months.
CNH's P/E Growth Rating (10) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as CAT (11). This means that CNH’s stock grew similarly to CAT’s over the last 12 months.
| CAT | CNH | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 46% | 2 days ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 63% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 69% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 69% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | N/A | 10 days ago 59% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 56% | 2 days ago 66% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 77% |
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CAT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CAT has been loosely correlated with TEX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 61% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CAT jumps, then TEX could also see price increases.
CNH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CNH has been closely correlated with AGCO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CNH jumps, then AGCO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CNH | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CNH | 100% | -4.09% | ||
| AGCO - CNH | 76% Closely correlated | -7.78% | ||
| DE - CNH | 71% Closely correlated | -1.88% | ||
| TEX - CNH | 60% Loosely correlated | -3.62% | ||
| OSK - CNH | 59% Loosely correlated | +0.07% | ||
| PCAR - CNH | 57% Loosely correlated | -0.08% | ||
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