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CAT vs MTW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) vs. The Manitowoc Company (MTW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CAT is a diversified heavy-equipment and power-generation giant, while MTW is a focused crane and lifting-solutions manufacturer, giving the two very different risk and reward profiles.
- Caterpillar has posted record revenue and a record order backlog, while Manitowoc is showing a sharper earnings recovery off a lower base.
- Both names face tariff-related cost pressure, but Caterpillar's scale and pricing power have cushioned margins more effectively so far.
- Manitowoc has delivered a stronger recent share-price gain year to date, reflecting its improving profitability and raised guidance.
- Relative performance and market positioning diverge sharply: Caterpillar offers stability and broad end-market exposure, while Manitowoc offers higher cyclicality and turnaround momentum.
Introduction
Investors comparing CAT and MTW are weighing two very different plays on the industrial and construction economy. Caterpillar is one of the world's largest manufacturers of construction, mining, and power equipment, while Manitowoc is a specialized producer of cranes and engineered lifting solutions. Although both companies serve overlapping end markets such as infrastructure and energy, their scale, diversification, and sensitivity to the economic cycle differ considerably. This stock comparison is especially relevant for traders and investors seeking to understand how a blue-chip industrial leader stacks up against a smaller, more cyclical turnaround candidate in the current market environment.
CAT Overview and Recent Performance
Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) is a global leader in construction and mining equipment, engines, and power systems. In recent quarters, the company has benefited from resilient end markets, broad-based demand, and growing interest in its power-generation products tied to data center and electrification buildouts. Recent market activity has reflected strong operational execution: Caterpillar reported first-quarter sales and revenues of roughly $17.4 billion, up 22% year over year, and followed with second-quarter revenues that surpassed $20 billion for the first time in company history. A record order backlog, reported at more than $60 billion in the first quarter and higher in the second, has supported positive sentiment and underpinned a raised full-year revenue outlook.
At the same time, tariff-related input costs have pressured margins, and the stock has pulled back from its highs in recent weeks despite a substantial longer-term gain. Analysts continue to highlight data center power demand, infrastructure spending, and automation as key growth drivers, while citing valuation and potential order slowdowns as points of caution. Caterpillar's combination of scale, pricing power, and a diversified portfolio continues to anchor its relative performance and market positioning.
MTW Overview and Recent Performance
The Manitowoc Company (MTW) designs and manufactures cranes and engineered lifting equipment for construction, energy, and infrastructure markets worldwide. A much smaller and more cyclical business than Caterpillar, Manitowoc has been executing a "CRANES+50" strategy aimed at expanding its less-cyclical aftermarket and service revenues. Recent market activity has reflected a meaningful improvement in results: first-quarter orders approached $650 million and backlog ended the period at $940 million, and second-quarter results showed revenue of about $594.9 million with adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) up sharply from the prior year, pushing backlog above $1.0 billion and prompting the company to raise its full-year guidance.
Manitowoc's share price has advanced significantly year to date, reflecting improving profitability and order momentum. However, the company remains exposed to tariff uncertainty, a cyclical crane market, and a leveraged balance sheet. Its recent outperformance reflects both a genuine earnings recovery and investor appetite for turnaround stories within the industrial sector.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most fundamental contrast between CAT and MTW is scale and diversification. Caterpillar spans construction, mining, engines, and power generation across global markets, while Manitowoc concentrates on cranes and lifting solutions, a narrower and more cyclical niche. This difference drives divergent risk factors: Caterpillar's record backlog and pricing power provide more cushion against input-cost inflation, whereas Manitowoc's smaller revenue base and leveraged balance sheet leave it more sensitive to swings in crane demand and tariffs.
Growth drivers also differ. Caterpillar's momentum is tied to data center power demand, infrastructure spending, and mining investment, while Manitowoc's story centers on a recovering crane cycle and expansion of higher-margin aftermarket services. In terms of recent momentum, Manitowoc has delivered a larger year-to-date percentage gain, but Caterpillar offers more stable earnings and broader analyst coverage. Sector exposure overlaps through construction and energy, yet the two companies sit at opposite ends of the industrial spectrum in terms of cyclicality and market positioning.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor CAT in a head-to-head comparison. Caterpillar's record backlog, rising revenue, diversified end markets, and consistent earnings momentum present a more durable and less volatile profile than Manitowoc's turnaround-driven gains. While MTW has shown stronger recent share-price appreciation and improving margins, its narrower market, cyclical exposure, and leverage introduce greater uncertainty. The AI framework would therefore lean toward Caterpillar for its combination of established trend strength and lower relative risk, while recognizing Manitowoc's momentum as a higher-beta (more volatile relative to the market) alternative for risk-tolerant traders.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CAT is a StrongBuy and MTW is a Hold.
CAT's RSI Indicator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for CAT moved out of oversold territory on November 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 27 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 23 of the 27 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 85%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 41 of 54 cases where CAT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Following a +3.54% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CAT advanced for three days, in 277 of 377 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
CAT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on CAT as a result. In 37 of 72 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for CAT turned negative on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 21 of the 44 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 48%.
The 10-day moving average for CAT crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 13, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 8 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
The 50-day moving average for CAT moved below the 200-day moving average on October 21, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CAT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
The Aroon Indicator for CAT entered a downward trend on November 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. CAT’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 69 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: CAT's P/B Ratio (13.240) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (2.277). P/E Ratio (23.934) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.106). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.435) is also within normal values, averaging (1.745). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.017) among similar stocks. CAT's P/S Ratio (4.892) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.169).
MTW's Stochastic Oscillator is remaining in overbought zone for 1 day
Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MTW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 77%.
MTW broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 28, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MTW as a result. In 69 of 94 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MTW just turned positive on November 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where MTW's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 44 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
MTW moved above its 50-day moving average on November 06, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +12.41% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MTW advanced for three days, in 199 of 280 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 161 of 198 cases where MTW Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 81%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 2 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MTW’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 60 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.153) is normal, around the industry mean (2.277). P/E Ratio (39.316) is within average values for comparable stocks, (3.106). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.350) is also within normal values, averaging (1.745). MTW's Dividend Yield (0.057) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.017). P/S Ratio (0.331) is also within normal values, averaging (1.169).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MTW’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 79, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 88 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
CAT | MTW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 8 | 27 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 88 Overvalued | 60 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 51 | 77 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 88 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 65 | 35 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 69 | 2 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTW's Valuation (60) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as CAT (88). This means that MTW’s stock grew similarly to CAT’s over the last 12 months.
CAT's Profit vs Risk Rating (51) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as MTW (77). This means that CAT’s stock grew similarly to MTW’s over the last 12 months.
CAT's SMR Rating (19) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is significantly better than the same rating for MTW (88). This means that CAT’s stock grew significantly faster than MTW’s over the last 12 months.
MTW's Price Growth Rating (35) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as CAT (65). This means that MTW’s stock grew similarly to CAT’s over the last 12 months.
MTW's P/E Growth Rating (2) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is significantly better than the same rating for CAT (69). This means that MTW’s stock grew significantly faster than CAT’s over the last 12 months.
| CAT | MTW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 85% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 81% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 51% | 2 days ago 73% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 48% | 2 days ago 77% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 5 days ago 71% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 57% | 9 days ago 77% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 81% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CAT’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while MTW’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CAT’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MTW’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CAT’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MTW’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CAT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- MTW’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
CAT (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) experienced а +9.33% price change this week, while MTW (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) price change was +12.51% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery industry was +3.64%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -7.15%, and the average quarterly price growth was -1.05%.
Reported Earning Dates
CAT is expected to report earnings on Feb 04, 2027.
MTW is expected to report earnings on Feb 17, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery (+3.64% weekly)The industry designs and builds agricultural, construction and other large commercial and transportation equipment. Tractors, planters and harvesters, as well as rock-crushing, railroad, demolition and other construction implements are produced by this industry. Rapid urbanization and industrialization has been bolstering the expansion of the construction sector in the past few decades, thereby boosting demand for heavy equipment businesses. Caterpillar Inc., Deere & Company and Cummins Inc (Ex. Cummins Engine Inc) are some prominent companies in this industry.
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CAT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CAT has been loosely correlated with TEX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 60% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CAT jumps, then TEX could also see price increases.
MTW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTW has been loosely correlated with TEX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MTW jumps, then TEX could also see price increases.