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CAT vs MTW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) vs. The Manitowoc Company (MTW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Caterpillar (CAT) is a global industrial giant with a market capitalization above $440 billion, diversified across construction, mining, and energy segments, while Manitowoc (MTW) is a specialized crane manufacturer with a market cap under $500 million.
- CAT delivered record full-year revenue of $67.6 billion in 2025, whereas MTW generated $2.24 billion in net sales the same year — highlighting a dramatic difference in scale.
- Both companies face tariff-related margin pressures, but CAT's massive $51.2 billion backlog and strong cash generation provide a buffer that MTW, with its $794 million backlog, cannot match.
- CAT shares have appreciated roughly 150% over the past year, while MTW has been essentially flat over the same period.
- CAT returns capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks (30 consecutive years of dividend growth); MTW does not currently pay a dividend.
- MTW's CRANES+50 strategy is driving growth in higher-margin aftermarket sales, and European tower crane demand is recovering — a potential catalyst for the smaller company.
Introduction
Comparing CAT and MTW is a study in contrasts: one is a century-old industrial titan with a market value exceeding $440 billion, and the other is a focused crane manufacturer valued at under $500 million. Both operate in the heavy equipment and construction machinery space, yet their scale, growth trajectories, risk profiles, and market positioning could hardly be more different. This comparison is relevant for investors seeking to understand how a diversified industrial leader stacks up against a niche cyclical player — and which one may be better positioned in the current environment of tariff uncertainty, recovering European demand, and evolving infrastructure spending patterns.
CAT Overview and Recent Performance
CAT, headquartered in Deerfield, Illinois, is the world's largest manufacturer of construction and mining equipment, off-highway diesel and natural gas engines, industrial gas turbines, and diesel-electric locomotives. The company operates through three primary segments: Construction Industries, Resource Industries, and Power & Energy (formerly Energy & Transportation), complemented by a financial products arm. In full-year 2025, Caterpillar achieved its highest-ever annual sales and revenues at $67.6 billion, a 4% increase year-over-year. Fourth-quarter 2025 revenues set a quarterly record at $19.1 billion, an 18% jump from the prior year, driven by higher volumes across all segments. The company's backlog reached an all-time high of $51.2 billion, reflecting strong demand in power generation equipment tied to data center expansion — a secular growth driver that has attracted significant investor attention in recent months. However, margins have been under pressure: adjusted operating margin contracted to 17.2% for the full year, down from 20.7% in 2024, largely due to elevated manufacturing costs and an estimated $1.8 billion impact from tariffs. Full-year adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in at $19.06, down 13% year-over-year. Despite these headwinds, CAT generated $11.7 billion in enterprise operating cash flow, ended the year with $10 billion in cash, and returned $7.9 billion to shareholders via dividends and share repurchases. The stock has been a standout performer, gaining approximately 150% over the past twelve months.
MTW Overview and Recent Performance
MTW, based in Milwaukee, Wisconsin, is a pure-play crane manufacturer that designs, manufactures, and distributes crawler-mounted lattice-boom cranes, tower cranes, mobile hydraulic cranes, and boom trucks under well-known brands including Grove, Potain, and National Crane. The company serves construction, infrastructure, and energy end markets globally. Full-year 2025 net sales rose 2.9% to $2.24 billion, with non-new machine sales — a key component of the company's CRANES+50 strategy focused on higher-margin aftermarket and service revenue — growing 9.8% to a record $690.5 million. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) was $122 million, in line with company expectations, though the adjusted EBITDA margin slipped 50 basis points to 5.4%. Tariffs imposed an unfavorable gross impact of $39 million, of which management mitigated approximately 85% through pricing and sourcing actions. Fourth-quarter orders surged 55.8% year-over-year to $803.4 million, pushing year-end backlog 22% higher to $793.5 million. The European tower crane market has shown a meaningful recovery, with new machine orders up 64% in the fourth quarter. For 2026, MTW guided for net sales of $2.25–$2.35 billion and adjusted EBITDA of $125–$150 million, alongside a restructuring plan expected to yield $10 million in annualized savings. The stock has been relatively flat over the past year, with modest single-digit moves in recent weeks.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most striking difference between CAT and MTW is scale. Caterpillar's $67.6 billion in annual revenue is roughly 30 times Manitowoc's $2.24 billion, and its market capitalization is nearly 1,000 times larger. This scale translates into competitive advantages that are difficult to replicate: a global dealer network, significant R&D (research and development) spending power, a captive finance arm that facilitates customer purchases, and a diversified portfolio that cushions against weakness in any single end market.
CAT's growth narrative has been increasingly tied to secular trends — particularly the build-out of data centers driving demand for power generation equipment, which helped its Power & Energy segment outperform in 2025. MTW, by contrast, remains highly levered to the cyclical crane market, where demand is sensitive to construction spending, infrastructure budgets, and broader economic sentiment. MTW does have a bright spot in its growing aftermarket business, which generates gross margins around 35% and provides a recurring revenue stream less tied to new equipment sales. However, this segment, at roughly $690 million annually, is still dwarfed by CAT's service revenue ambitions of $30 billion by 2030.
Risk exposure also diverges. Both companies are dealing with tariff headwinds, but CAT faces an estimated $2.6 billion in incremental tariff costs in 2026, compared to MTW's $39 million gross impact in 2025. While the absolute dollar figures reflect CAT's larger import footprint, CAT's balance sheet — with $10 billion in cash and investment-grade credit metrics — provides substantially more cushion. MTW ended 2025 with $77 million in cash and a net leverage ratio of 3.15 times, leaving less room for error.
From a shareholder return perspective, CAT offers a dividend that has grown for 30 consecutive years, supported by a payout ratio around 27–30%. MTW does not pay a dividend. On valuation, CAT trades at a forward price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio of roughly 29–30 times, a premium that reflects its market leadership and growth runway. MTW trades at a lower forward P/E of approximately 11–12 times, but this discount reflects its higher cyclicality, weaker profitability, and more constrained financial position.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors — trend consistency, balance sheet strength, backlog visibility, and exposure to secular growth drivers — Tickeron's AI would likely favor CAT in the current market environment. The stock's combination of a $51.2 billion record backlog, diversified revenue streams, strong cash generation, and proven ability to return capital to shareholders through dividends and buybacks creates a more resilient profile. CAT's exposure to data center and power generation megatrends provides a tailwind that MTW, as a pure-play crane manufacturer, does not share to the same degree. MTW is showing encouraging signs — recovering European tower crane demand, growing aftermarket sales, and a robust Q4 order book — but its smaller scale, higher leverage, and dependence on cyclical new equipment orders introduce greater uncertainty. For risk-adjusted positioning, the AI would likely see CAT as the more consistent and better-supported opportunity at this juncture, though MTW may offer higher upside potential for those with a stronger conviction in a sustained crane cycle recovery.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CAT is a Hold and MTW is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CAT’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green whileMTW’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CAT’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- MTW’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CAT’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MTW’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CAT’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 7 bearish.
- MTW’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
CAT (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) experienced а -7.57% price change this week, while MTW (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) price change was +1.96% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery industry was -0.33%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.44%, and the average quarterly price growth was -3.49%.
Reported Earning Dates
CAT is expected to report earnings on Aug 04, 2026.
MTW is expected to report earnings on Aug 12, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery (-0.33% weekly)The industry designs and builds agricultural, construction and other large commercial and transportation equipment. Tractors, planters and harvesters, as well as rock-crushing, railroad, demolition and other construction implements are produced by this industry. Rapid urbanization and industrialization has been bolstering the expansion of the construction sector in the past few decades, thereby boosting demand for heavy equipment businesses. Caterpillar Inc., Deere & Company and Cummins Inc (Ex. Cummins Engine Inc) are some prominent companies in this industry.
| CAT | MTW | CAT / MTW | |
| Capitalization | 405B | 468M | 86,538% |
| EBITDA | 15B | 112M | 13,393% |
| Gain YTD | 54.314 | 8.674 | 626% |
| P/E Ratio | 43.84 | 62.05 | 71% |
| Revenue | 70.8B | 2.27B | 3,126% |
| Total Cash | 4.07B | 78.4M | 5,194% |
| Total Debt | 43.1B | 499M | 8,637% |
CAT | MTW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 80 | 60 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 80 Overvalued | 75 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 6 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 20 | 91 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 54 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 8 | 2 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTW's Valuation (75) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as CAT (80). This means that MTW’s stock grew similarly to CAT’s over the last 12 months.
CAT's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is significantly better than the same rating for MTW (100). This means that CAT’s stock grew significantly faster than MTW’s over the last 12 months.
CAT's SMR Rating (20) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is significantly better than the same rating for MTW (91). This means that CAT’s stock grew significantly faster than MTW’s over the last 12 months.
CAT's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as MTW (54). This means that CAT’s stock grew similarly to MTW’s over the last 12 months.
MTW's P/E Growth Rating (2) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as CAT (8). This means that MTW’s stock grew similarly to CAT’s over the last 12 months.
| CAT | MTW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 58% | 3 days ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 82% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 45% | 3 days ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 45% | 3 days ago 90% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 71% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 70% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 20 days ago 73% | 4 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 56% | 6 days ago 80% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 58% | 3 days ago 85% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 67% |
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CAT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CAT has been loosely correlated with TEX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 61% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CAT jumps, then TEX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CAT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAT | 100% | +0.35% | ||
| TEX - CAT | 61% Loosely correlated | -0.56% | ||
| CNH - CAT | 55% Loosely correlated | +0.38% | ||
| ASTE - CAT | 54% Loosely correlated | -2.15% | ||
| MTW - CAT | 53% Loosely correlated | -2.47% | ||
| AGCO - CAT | 50% Loosely correlated | -0.02% | ||
More | ||||
MTW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTW has been loosely correlated with TEX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MTW jumps, then TEX could also see price increases.