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AVAV vs ESLT
AeroVironment (AVAV) vs Elbit Systems (ESLT) Earnings Recap: Record Backlogs Amid Defense Demand Surge
Key Takeaways
- AeroVironment (AVAV) reported Q3 FY2026 revenue of $408 million, up 143% YoY, driven by BlueHalo acquisition, but missed estimates with non-GAAP EPS of $0.64.
- Elbit Systems (ESLT) delivered Q4 2025 revenue of $2.15 billion, up 11% YoY, beating estimates with non-GAAP EPS of $3.56 and full-year revenue growth of 16% to $7.94 billion.
- Both companies showcased robust backlogs: AVAV at $1.1 billion funded and ESLT at a record $28.1 billion, signaling strong future revenue visibility.
- AVAV faced a $151 million goodwill impairment from a Space program stop-work order, impacting GAAP results, while guiding FY2026 revenue to $1.85-$1.95 billion.
- ESLT generated record free cash flow over $550 million in 2025, with 72% of backlog from international orders outside Israel.
- Defense sector tailwinds from global conflicts bolster both, but ESLT's scale and consistent beats highlight superior execution.
Earnings Context and Why This Comparison Matters
Recent earnings from AVAV and ESLT underscore the booming demand for unmanned systems, drones, and defense electronics amid geopolitical tensions. Both specialize in autonomous technologies—AVAV in small UAS like Switchblade loitering munitions and counter-UAS, and ESLT in integrated C4I, electro-optics, and munitions. This rivalry highlights U.S.-based innovation versus Israel's battle-tested solutions, with backlogs reflecting multi-year contracts from militaries worldwide. Investors eye execution on these orders for sustained growth.
Elbit Systems Focus
Elbit Systems released Q4 and full-year 2025 results, posting record revenue of $2.15 billion in the quarter (up 11% YoY) and $7.94 billion annually (up 16%). Non-GAAP EPS reached $3.56, beating consensus by over 10%, with GAAP EPS at $3.52. Operating profit surged 36% to $192 million in Q4, driven by C4I/Cyber (up 19%), ISTAR/EW (up 39%), and Land segments (up 22% from munitions). Backlog hit $28.1 billion, up 24% YoY, with 72% international and 54% deliverable in 2026-2027. Free cash flow exceeded $550 million, funding $517 million R&D and $225 million CAPEX. Dividend rose to $1.00/share starting Q1 2026. Fiscal year ends December 31.
AeroVironment Context
AeroVironment's Q3 FY2026 (ended January 31, 2026) delivered $408 million revenue, up 143% YoY from $168 million, fueled by BlueHalo acquisition (contributing ~$176 million). Non-GAAP EPS doubled to $0.64 from $0.30, though revenue and EPS missed estimates due to timing shifts and Space segment challenges. GAAP net loss widened to $157 million ($3.15/share) from a $151 million goodwill impairment on the SCAR program stop-work order. Gross margin dipped to 24% from 38% amid higher service mix. Funded backlog reached record $1.1 billion; nine-month bookings hit $2.1 billion (1.6x book-to-bill). FY2026 guidance: $1.85-$1.95 billion revenue. Fiscal year ends April 30.
Head-to-Head Earnings and Market Comparison
ESLT dwarfs AVAV in scale—$7.94 billion FY revenue vs. ~$1.6 billion TTM—with superior margins (non-GAAP EPS growth 46% YoY) and no major impairments. AVAV's explosive 143% quarterly growth showcases acquisition synergies but exposes integration risks and program dependencies. Backlogs favor ESLT ($28.1 billion vs. $1.1 billion funded), offering better visibility; both benefit from drone/C-UAS demand. Risks: AVAV faces U.S. budget scrutiny post-impairment; ESLT navigates supply chains amid regional conflicts. Sentiment leans positive on defense spending, with ESLT's cash flow enabling dividends and expansion.
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Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron AI favors ESLT (65% probability) for superior earnings quality, massive backlog stability, and cash generation amid defense tailwinds, over AVAV's higher growth volatility and impairment risks.
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To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AVAV is a Hold and ESLT is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AVAV’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileESLT’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AVAV’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ESLT’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AVAV’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ESLT’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AVAV’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- ESLT’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AVAV (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а +7.13% price change this week, while ESLT (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was +6.89% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was -5.33%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -8.84%, and the average quarterly price growth was -1.42%.
Reported Earning Dates
AVAV is expected to report earnings on Sep 09, 2026.
ESLT is expected to report earnings on Aug 18, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (-5.33% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
| AVAV | ESLT | AVAV / ESLT | |
| Capitalization | 8.23B | 37.1B | 22% |
| EBITDA | 104M | 861M | 12% |
| Gain YTD | -26.892 | 40.717 | -66% |
| P/E Ratio | 149.03 | 62.57 | 238% |
| Revenue | 1.61B | 8.23B | 20% |
| Total Cash | 587M | N/A | - |
| Total Debt | 826M | 895M | 92% |
AVAV | ESLT | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 10 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 70 Overvalued | 85 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 83 | 18 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 95 | 56 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 62 | 47 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 13 | 40 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 37 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AVAV's Valuation (70) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as ESLT (85). This means that AVAV’s stock grew similarly to ESLT’s over the last 12 months.
ESLT's Profit vs Risk Rating (18) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AVAV (83). This means that ESLT’s stock grew somewhat faster than AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
ESLT's SMR Rating (56) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AVAV (95). This means that ESLT’s stock grew somewhat faster than AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
ESLT's Price Growth Rating (47) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as AVAV (62). This means that ESLT’s stock grew similarly to AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
AVAV's P/E Growth Rating (13) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as ESLT (40). This means that AVAV’s stock grew similarly to ESLT’s over the last 12 months.
| AVAV | ESLT | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 81% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 52% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 79% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 74% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 67% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 45% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 80% | 7 days ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 14 days ago 72% | 13 days ago 45% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 53% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 77% |
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AVAV and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AVAV has been loosely correlated with KTOS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if AVAV jumps, then KTOS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AVAV | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAV | 100% | N/A | ||
| KTOS - AVAV | 65% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| AIRO - AVAV | 49% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| RCAT - AVAV | 48% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| MRCY - AVAV | 48% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| DRS - AVAV | 48% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
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ESLT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ESLT has been loosely correlated with DRS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 49% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ESLT jumps, then DRS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ESLT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESLT | 100% | N/A | ||
| DRS - ESLT | 49% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| KTOS - ESLT | 45% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| AVAV - ESLT | 41% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| KRMN - ESLT | 40% Loosely correlated | -3.54% | ||
| HEI - ESLT | 39% Loosely correlated | -2.00% | ||
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