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AVAV vs ESLT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AeroVironment (AVAV) vs. Elbit Systems (ESLT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AeroVironment (AVAV) is a U.S. autonomous-systems and loitering-munitions specialist whose shares have sold off sharply in 2026 despite record revenue and backlog.
- Elbit Systems (ESLT) is a diversified Israeli defense-electronics company that has posted strong relative performance and a record order backlog.
- The two companies occupy different ends of the defense market: AVAV skews toward drones and precision strike, while ESLT spans aerospace, land, naval, and C4I (command, control, communications, computers, and intelligence) systems.
- Recent momentum favors ESLT, while AVAV carries a more aggressive analyst price-target consensus reflecting a potential recovery thesis.
- Both stocks face defense-budget, contract, and valuation risk, making their relative positioning a useful case study in sector exposure and sentiment.
Introduction
Defense and autonomous-systems stocks have become a focal point for investors tracking shifting government budgets, battlefield technology trends, and international procurement cycles. This stock comparison examines AVAV and ESLT, two companies linked to the growing unmanned-systems and precision-weapons market but with very different business models and recent price paths. AeroVironment is a U.S. leader in small drones and loitering munitions, while Elbit Systems is a broad Israeli defense-electronics group. Traders and long-term investors weighing momentum against valuation, or U.S. domestic demand against global diversification, may find the contrast between these two names especially relevant.
AVAV Overview and Recent Performance
AVAV, AeroVironment, designs and manufactures autonomous systems, loitering munitions such as the Switchblade family, counter-drone technologies, and directed-energy platforms. In recent weeks, the stock has traded well below its 52-week high near $420, with its share price down roughly 40% to 50% year-to-date. This drawdown has occurred despite strong underlying fundamentals: the company has reported record quarterly revenue and a record funded backlog of around $1.5 billion, alongside a healthy book-to-bill ratio (orders exceeding recognized revenue). Sentiment has been pressured by defense-budget uncertainty, concerns around government contract timing, and a high valuation multiple even after the decline. Strategic moves — including acquisitions and new international partnerships in Taiwan, Spain, and Australia — signal ongoing expansion, though investors remain focused on execution and backlog conversion.
ESLT Overview and Recent Performance
ESLT, Elbit Systems, is an Israeli defense company with a diversified portfolio spanning aerospace, land, naval, electronic-warfare, and C4I (command, control, communications, computers, and intelligence) systems. Its relative performance has been notably stronger: shares have gained roughly 30% or more year-to-date and about 50% over the trailing 12 months, supported by a record backlog of approximately $25 billion, with close to 70% of that coming from customers outside Israel. Recent market activity has featured a steady stream of contract awards, including a $235 million European rocket-artillery order and additional international deals, as well as a completed acquisition in underwater autonomy. This diversification and order momentum have underpinned investor confidence, though the stock trades at a relatively elevated price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple, leaving valuation as a key point of debate.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two names is scope versus focus. AVAV is concentrated in autonomous aircraft, loitering munitions, and counter-drone systems, giving it high sensitivity to U.S. unmanned-systems budgets and a growth-oriented, higher-multiple profile. ESLT is far more diversified across air, land, sea, and cyber domains, with a larger international revenue base that can smooth exposure to any single customer or region. On momentum, ESLT has clearly outperformed in recent months, while AVAV has experienced a significant de-rating despite record results. On valuation and analyst positioning, the picture differs: AVAV carries a consensus "Buy" with a price target implying substantial upside, whereas ESLT holds a "Hold" consensus with a more modest implied return. Risk factors also diverge — AVAV faces U.S. budget and contract-timing risk, while ESLT faces geopolitical and regional considerations alongside a premium valuation.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron’s AI would likely tilt toward ESLT in the current environment. Its steadier uptrend, record backlog, diversified order flow, and consistent catalyst pipeline suggest stronger trend consistency and stability relative to AVAV, which is contending with a pronounced drawdown, budget-related uncertainty, and execution questions. That said, AVAV’s discounted positioning and aggressive analyst targets introduce the possibility of a sharper recovery if sentiment stabilizes. The AI verdict is therefore probabilistic rather than absolute: momentum and consistency currently favor Elbit Systems, while AeroVironment presents a higher-risk, potentially higher-reward contrarian profile.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AVAV is a Buy and ESLT is a Buy.
AVAV's RSI Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for AVAV moved out of oversold territory on November 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 25 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 22 of the 25 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 53 of 66 cases where AVAV's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for AVAV just turned positive on November 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where AVAV's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 41 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 84%.
Following a +24.37% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where AVAV advanced for three days, in 242 of 294 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 82%.
AVAV may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 10, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on AVAV as a result. In 55 of 88 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where AVAV declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
The Aroon Indicator for AVAV entered a downward trend on November 10, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 31 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.304) is normal, around the industry mean (5.050). P/E Ratio (-27.773) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.247). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.565) is also within normal values, averaging (3.110). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.893) is also within normal values, averaging (18.367).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. AVAV’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. AVAV’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
ESLT in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026
ESLT moved above its 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 28 of 36 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 38 of 56 cases where ESLT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
The 10-day moving average for ESLT crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 7 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 58%.
Following a +8.44% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ESLT advanced for three days, in 242 of 348 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
ESLT may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 209 of 272 cases where ESLT Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 77%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ESLT moved out of overbought territory on October 30, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 23 of the 44 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 52%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 04, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on ESLT as a result. In 53 of 94 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ESLT turned negative on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 54 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 30 of the 54 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 56%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ESLT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ESLT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (7.254) is normal, around the industry mean (5.050). P/E Ratio (49.860) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.247). ESLT's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (11.650) is slightly higher than the industry average of (3.110). Dividend Yield (0.006) settles around the average of (0.055) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.143) is also within normal values, averaging (18.367).
AVAV | ESLT | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 9 | 43 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 31 Undervalued | 94 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 91 | 25 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 92 | 55 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 78 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 52 | 58 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 35 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AVAV's Valuation (31) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ESLT (94). This means that AVAV’s stock grew somewhat faster than ESLT’s over the last 12 months.
ESLT's Profit vs Risk Rating (25) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is significantly better than the same rating for AVAV (91). This means that ESLT’s stock grew significantly faster than AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
ESLT's SMR Rating (55) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AVAV (92). This means that ESLT’s stock grew somewhat faster than AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
ESLT's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is somewhat better than the same rating for AVAV (78). This means that ESLT’s stock grew somewhat faster than AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
AVAV's P/E Growth Rating (52) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as ESLT (58). This means that AVAV’s stock grew similarly to ESLT’s over the last 12 months.
| AVAV | ESLT | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 88% | 2 days ago 52% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 56% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 84% | 2 days ago 56% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 51% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 71% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 74% | 7 days ago 50% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 82% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 77% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AVAV’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while ESLT’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AVAV’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ESLT’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AVAV’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ESLT’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AVAV’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- ESLT’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
AVAV (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а -0.02% price change this week, while ESLT (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was -2.17% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was +5.10%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -0.96%, and the average quarterly price growth was -12.76%.
Reported Earning Dates
AVAV is expected to report earnings on Dec 08, 2026.
ESLT is expected to report earnings on Nov 17, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (+5.10% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
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AVAV and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, AVAV has been closely correlated with KTOS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if AVAV jumps, then KTOS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To AVAV | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| AVAV | 100% | -2.73% | ||
| KTOS - AVAV | 71% Closely correlated | -2.57% | ||
| RCAT - AVAV | 58% Loosely correlated | -6.44% | ||
| MRCY - AVAV | 57% Loosely correlated | +4.97% | ||
| DRS - AVAV | 55% Loosely correlated | +0.33% | ||
| RKLB - AVAV | 53% Loosely correlated | +6.54% | ||
More | ||||
ESLT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ESLT has been loosely correlated with DRS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 55% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ESLT jumps, then DRS could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ESLT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ESLT | 100% | +2.53% | ||
| DRS - ESLT | 55% Loosely correlated | +0.33% | ||
| KTOS - ESLT | 51% Loosely correlated | -2.57% | ||
| MRCY - ESLT | 47% Loosely correlated | +4.97% | ||
| HII - ESLT | 43% Loosely correlated | +3.03% | ||
| AVAV - ESLT | 43% Loosely correlated | -2.73% | ||
More | ||||
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| CAFG | 32.81 | 0.05 | +0.15% |
| Pacer US Small Cap Cash Cows Growth Leaders ETF (CAFG) | |||
| IYH | 79.13 | 0.09 | +0.11% |
| iShares U.S. Healthcare ETF (IYH) | |||
| ABI | 24.50 | -0.04 | -0.14% |
| VictoryShares Pioneer Asset-Based Income ETF (ABI) | |||
| ENDW | 33.99 | -0.15 | -0.43% |
| Cambria Endowment Style ETF (ENDW) | |||
| SJCP | 24.72 | -0.12 | -0.48% |
| SanJac Alpha Core Plus Bond ETF (SJCP) | |||