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AVAV vs MRCY
Which Stock Would AI Choose? AeroVironment (AVAV) vs. Mercury Systems (MRCY) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- AeroVironment (AVAV) delivered record fiscal 2026 revenue of $1.98 billion, more than doubling year-over-year, driven by strong demand for autonomous systems and loitering munitions.
- Mercury Systems (MRCY) reported record bookings of $1.55 billion in fiscal 2026, up 50%, pushing backlog to $1.95 billion and providing visibility into future revenue.
- Both companies operate in the aerospace and defense sector and have benefited from elevated U.S. defense spending amid geopolitical tensions.
- AVAV stock has experienced significant volatility, surging after June earnings before pulling back, while MRCY shares declined following August results despite record orders.
- AVAV shows higher revenue growth but faces integration and margin execution risks post-acquisitions; MRCY emphasizes backlog conversion amid ongoing profitability challenges.
- Relative performance highlights trade-offs between growth momentum in unmanned systems and steady demand for processing and electronics solutions.
Introduction
Investors and traders comparing AVAV and MRCY seek insights into two specialized players in the aerospace and defense industry. AeroVironment focuses on unmanned aircraft systems and tactical munitions, while Mercury Systems provides embedded computing and electronics for defense platforms. This comparison appeals to those evaluating relative performance, sector exposure to defense budgets, and recent operational developments in a market shaped by modernization priorities. The analysis examines business models, recent results, and positioning without forward-looking projections.
AVAV Overview and Recent Performance
AeroVironment, Inc. develops and supplies unmanned aircraft systems, loitering munitions, and related technologies primarily for military customers. In recent market activity following its fiscal fourth-quarter results, the company reported revenue more than doubling to $641.6 million, with funded backlog reaching $1.2 billion. Organic growth and contributions from acquisitions supported the results, alongside new program wins in autonomous systems. Stock performance reflected initial positive reaction to the earnings release before broader market pressures contributed to pullbacks in subsequent weeks. Sentiment has been influenced by defense spending trends and execution on manufacturing scale-up.
MRCY Overview and Recent Performance
Mercury Systems, Inc. specializes in mission-critical processing subsystems, electronic components, and software for aerospace and defense applications. Following its fiscal fourth-quarter and full-year results in recent weeks, the company highlighted record bookings of $1.55 billion and backlog of $1.95 billion. Revenue reached $983.6 million for the year, with improvements in adjusted profitability metrics despite a GAAP net loss. Shares experienced downward pressure after the release, attributed to margin considerations and earnings comparisons. Market activity has centered on demand signals across processing architecture and airborne programs amid ongoing sector tailwinds.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
Business Model: AVAV centers on end-to-end unmanned and autonomous solutions with emphasis on field-deployable systems, whereas MRCY supplies enabling electronics and computing hardware integrated into larger platforms.
Growth Drivers: AVAV benefits from rapid scaling in loitering munitions and counter-unmanned aerial systems demand; MRCY draws from broad-based production awards in processing and missile defense segments.
Recent Momentum: AVAV posted outsized revenue expansion in its latest reported period, while MRCY achieved record order intake supporting backlog visibility.
Risk Factors: AVAV faces acquisition integration and manufacturing ramp-up considerations; MRCY contends with margin variability on fixed-price contracts and conversion of backlog to recognized revenue.
Sector Exposure and Sentiment: Both maintain primary exposure to U.S. defense budgets, with sentiment shaped by contract wins and execution metrics rather than divergent macro drivers.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors including trend consistency in order flow, backlog stability, and relative positioning within defense modernization themes, Tickeron’s AI would currently assign a probabilistic edge to AVAV for momentum alignment, while noting MRCY’s backlog strength as a counterbalancing element. Outcomes remain subject to execution variables and sector dynamics.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is AVAV is a Hold and MRCY is a Hold.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
AVAV’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileMRCY’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- AVAV’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MRCY’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
AVAV’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MRCY’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- AVAV’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- MRCY’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
AVAV (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а -2.22% price change this week, while MRCY (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was -6.91% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was -3.20%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -10.26%, and the average quarterly price growth was -9.95%.
Reported Earning Dates
AVAV is expected to report earnings on Sep 09, 2026.
MRCY is expected to report earnings on Nov 10, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (-3.20% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
| AVAV | MRCY | AVAV / MRCY | |
| Capitalization | 7.35B | 4.96B | 148% |
| EBITDA | -34.97M | 88.4M | -40% |
| Gain YTD | -40.200 | 12.889 | -312% |
| P/E Ratio | 149.03 | N/A | - |
| Revenue | 1.98B | 967M | 204% |
| Total Cash | 632M | 332M | 190% |
| Total Debt | 835M | 654M | 128% |
AVAV | MRCY | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 81 Overvalued | 98 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 89 | 64 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 94 | 89 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 82 | 64 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 10 | 2 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | n/a | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
AVAV's Valuation (81) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as MRCY (98) in the Electronic Equipment Or Instruments industry. This means that AVAV’s stock grew similarly to MRCY’s over the last 12 months.
MRCY's Profit vs Risk Rating (64) in the Electronic Equipment Or Instruments industry is in the same range as AVAV (89) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that MRCY’s stock grew similarly to AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
MRCY's SMR Rating (89) in the Electronic Equipment Or Instruments industry is in the same range as AVAV (94) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that MRCY’s stock grew similarly to AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
MRCY's Price Growth Rating (64) in the Electronic Equipment Or Instruments industry is in the same range as AVAV (82) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that MRCY’s stock grew similarly to AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
MRCY's P/E Growth Rating (2) in the Electronic Equipment Or Instruments industry is in the same range as AVAV (10) in the Aerospace And Defense industry. This means that MRCY’s stock grew similarly to AVAV’s over the last 12 months.
| AVAV | MRCY | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 78% | 3 days ago 70% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 78% | 3 days ago 66% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 81% | 11 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 12 days ago 72% | 5 days ago 70% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 83% | 3 days ago 75% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 77% |
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