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BLK vs CG
Which Stock Would AI Choose? BlackRock (BLK) vs. The Carlyle Group (CG) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BlackRock (BLK) is the world's largest asset manager with roughly $15.5 trillion in assets under management (AUM), while The Carlyle Group (CG) is a private-capital specialist managing approximately $475 billion in AUM.
- The two firms run fundamentally different business models: BlackRock operates a broad public-and-private markets platform, whereas Carlyle focuses on private equity, credit, and investment solutions.
- Recent momentum has favored BLK, which posted record inflows, revenue, and margin expansion, while CG has faced earnings and margin pressure tied to investment losses and lumpy realizations.
- BlackRock's scale and recurring-fee profile contrast with Carlyle's higher sensitivity to performance fees, exits, and market conditions.
- Both businesses benefit from secular growth in private markets, but they carry very different risk-and-reward characteristics for investors.
Introduction
BlackRock and The Carlyle Group are two of the most recognized names in asset management, yet they occupy different ends of the industry. BlackRock is a diversified, technology-enabled giant whose scale spans index funds, active strategies, private markets, and financial software. Carlyle is a focused alternatives manager that deploys private capital across private equity, credit, and secondaries. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing broad, recurring-revenue stability against higher-growth but more volatile alternatives exposure. Understanding their relative performance, business drivers, and market positioning can help traders and long-term investors decide which profile better suits their objectives in the current market environment.
BLK Overview and Recent Performance
BLK (BlackRock) is the largest asset manager globally, with assets under management (AUM) that reached a record of roughly $15.5 trillion in recent reporting. Its diversified product mix spans equity, fixed income, multi-asset, cash management, and alternatives, and it operates leading exchange-traded fund (ETF) and financial technology franchises such as Aladdin.
In recent weeks, BlackRock has shown notable momentum. Its latest quarterly results delivered total revenue up about 19% year over year, net income growth, and an operating margin near 48%, reflecting stronger profitability. Net inflows of around $205 billion underscored broad-based demand across ETFs, private markets, active strategies, and cash. Technology services and subscription revenue also grew at a low-teens rate, while private-markets fundraising and performance fees added further support. These results have prompted several analysts to raise price targets, with one firm upgrading the stock to a Buy rating. The narrative around BlackRock has shifted toward its transformation into a broader financial infrastructure platform, with integration of recent acquisitions still a key execution risk to watch.
CG Overview and Recent Performance
CG (The Carlyle Group) is a global alternative asset manager that deploys private capital across three segments: Global Private Equity, Global Credit, and Carlyle AlpInvest, its investment solutions business. With approximately $475 billion in AUM, Carlyle is one of the larger independent alternatives firms, though it remains much smaller than BlackRock by asset base.
Carlyle's recent performance has been more mixed. In its latest quarters, total revenue declined sharply year over year, driven primarily by investment losses and the reversal of unrealized performance allocations, and the firm posted a GAAP net loss in its most recent first quarter. At the same time, Fee Related Earnings (FRE), a key measure of recurring profitability, has held relatively steady, and the firm reported record fee related earnings in a subsequent quarter alongside strong fundraising in AlpInvest and Global Credit. Management has emphasized a record level of dry powder and confidence in its long-term earnings trajectory, while analysts have trimmed price targets amid softer sentiment in the alternatives space. The stock's behavior reflects this tension between durable fee growth and volatile, realization-dependent earnings.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most important contrast between these two stocks is their business model and revenue mix. BlackRock generates a large share of its earnings from recurring base fees on a massive, diversified asset base, supported by technology and subscription revenue. This produces relatively stable, higher-margin earnings. Carlyle, by contrast, relies more heavily on performance fees and realized investment gains, which are inherently lumpier and more sensitive to market conditions and exit activity.
On growth drivers, both firms are pushing into private markets and wealth channels, but from different starting points. BlackRock is scaling private credit and infrastructure through acquisitions and partnerships, while Carlyle is expanding its credit and secondaries platforms and building toward multi-year earnings targets. In terms of recent momentum, BlackRock's record inflows and margin expansion stand in contrast to Carlyle's revenue declines and GAAP losses, even as Carlyle's fee engine remains resilient.
Risk profiles also diverge. BlackRock's size offers diversification but creates integration and scale challenges, while Carlyle's smaller, alternatives-heavy model is more exposed to deal activity, realizations, and credit cycles. Sector exposure further separates them: BlackRock's breadth spans nearly every asset class, whereas Carlyle's fortunes are tied more directly to private markets and leveraged finance.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings stability, and margin momentum, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward BLK (BlackRock). The firm's record inflows, expanding operating margin, diversified revenue base, and recent analyst upgrades suggest a steadier and more consistent trend profile. By contrast, CG (Carlyle) presents a more mixed picture, with durable fee growth offset by volatile, realization-dependent earnings and softer near-term sentiment. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive: a sustained pickup in alternatives realizations or fundraising could shift the relative positioning, while any stumble in BlackRock's acquisition integration could narrow the gap.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BLK is a Hold and CG is a Hold.
BLK in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026
The 10-day moving average for BLK crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BLK as a result. In 38 of 75 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BLK just turned positive on September 25, 2026. Looking at past instances where BLK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 25 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
BLK moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +2.22% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BLK advanced for three days, in 194 of 338 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 142 of 293 cases where BLK Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 48%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for BLK moved out of overbought territory on October 22, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 37 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 20 of the 37 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 54%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BLK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 56%.
BLK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BLK’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 63 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 90 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.006) is normal, around the industry mean (2.393). P/E Ratio (26.386) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.286). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.898) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.020) settles around the average of (0.272) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (6.270) is also within normal values, averaging (15.798).
CG's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for CG entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 204 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 147 of the 204 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 72%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where CG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where CG's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 22 of 29 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on CG as a result. In 43 of 76 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for CG just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where CG's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 45 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Following a +2.56% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where CG advanced for three days, in 234 of 343 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
CG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 4 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 59 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. CG’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 88 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.623) is normal, around the industry mean (2.393). P/E Ratio (38.208) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-3.286). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.646) is also within normal values, averaging (1.319). Dividend Yield (0.036) settles around the average of (0.272) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.356) is also within normal values, averaging (15.798).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. CG’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 82, placing this stock worse than average.
BLK | CG | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 35 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 90 Overvalued | 88 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 49 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 63 | 59 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 34 | 73 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 53 | 4 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
CG's Valuation (88) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as BLK (90). This means that CG’s stock grew similarly to BLK’s over the last 12 months.
BLK's Profit vs Risk Rating (49) in the Investment Managers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CG (100). This means that BLK’s stock grew somewhat faster than CG’s over the last 12 months.
CG's SMR Rating (59) in the Investment Managers industry is in the same range as BLK (63). This means that CG’s stock grew similarly to BLK’s over the last 12 months.
BLK's Price Growth Rating (34) in the Investment Managers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CG (73). This means that BLK’s stock grew somewhat faster than CG’s over the last 12 months.
CG's P/E Growth Rating (4) in the Investment Managers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BLK (53). This means that CG’s stock grew somewhat faster than BLK’s over the last 12 months.
| BLK | CG | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 54% | 3 days ago 76% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 57% | 3 days ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 51% | 3 days ago 57% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 54% | 3 days ago 69% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 56% | 3 days ago 70% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 61% | 3 days ago 73% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 57% | 6 days ago 68% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 56% | 12 days ago 72% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 45% | 3 days ago 63% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 48% | 3 days ago 72% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BLK’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while CG’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- BLK’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- CG’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BLK’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while CG’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BLK’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- CG’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
BLK (@Investment Managers) experienced а -1.42% price change this week, while CG (@Investment Managers) price change was +6.07% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Managers industry was -0.72%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -6.44%, and the average quarterly price growth was -2.12%.
Reported Earning Dates
BLK is expected to report earnings on Jan 21, 2027.
CG is expected to report earnings on Nov 05, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Managers (-0.72% weekly)Investment Managers manage financial assets and other investments of clients. Management includes designing a short- or long-term strategy for buying/holding and selling of portfolio holdings. It can also include tax services and other aspects of financial planning as well. While it is perceived that the industry is faced with growing competition from robo-advisors/digital platforms and passive/ index-tracking funds, many investors still find value in actively managed in-person services that investment management companies often emphasize on. At the same time, many wealth managers are also incorporating digital initiatives/low cost options in addition to their in-person customized services. Their main sources of revenues are fees as a percentage of assets under management, in addition to a certain portion of clients’ gains from asset appreciation. BlackRock, Inc., Blackstone Group Inc and Brookfield Asset Management are some of the major investment management companies.
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