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BP vs TTE
Which Stock Would AI Choose? BP p.l.c. (BP) vs. TotalEnergies SE (TTE) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Diverging shareholder-return strategies: BP suspended its share buyback program to prioritize balance-sheet repair, while TTE raised its dividend and kept buybacks in place at a reduced pace.
- Relative performance gap: TotalEnergies has posted markedly stronger share-price momentum in recent quarters, while BP's stock has been pressured by weak oil prices and strategic uncertainty.
- Different energy models: BP has pivoted back toward a conventional oil-and-gas focus, whereas TotalEnergies runs a balanced "multi-energy" model spanning hydrocarbons, LNG, and electricity.
- Leadership transitions: BP is awaiting a new permanent CEO, while TotalEnergies benefits from long-standing, stable executive leadership.
- Market positioning: TTE currently screens as the higher-consistency trend candidate, though both names carry commodity-price sensitivity.
Introduction
Investors weighing exposure to European integrated energy majors frequently place BP and TTE side by side. Both are large-cap, globally diversified oil and gas producers, yet their recent strategic paths and market positioning have diverged meaningfully. This stock comparison examines their business models, recent performance, and sentiment shifts to help traders and longer-term investors understand the relative trade-offs between the two names. The analysis is especially relevant for those monitoring commodity-driven equities, dividend policies, and momentum in the energy sector.
BP Overview and Recent Performance
BP p.l.c. is a London-based integrated energy company spanning upstream production, refining, and marketing. In recent months, the company has executed a strategic reset, increasing investment in oil and gas while scaling back spending on low-carbon transition businesses. Management has also launched a roughly $20 billion disposal program, including a planned sale of a majority stake in its Castrol business.
Recent market activity has reflected investor unease. In its latest quarterly results, BP reported a fourth-quarter replacement cost (RC) loss that widened year over year, while full-year underlying RC profit declined from the prior year as weaker oil prices weighed on earnings. The board's decision to suspend share buybacks and redirect excess cash toward strengthening the balance sheet triggered a notable sell-off, as shareholders interpreted the move as a signal of financial pressure. Net debt remains above the company's stated target range, and an interim chief executive is currently in place ahead of a permanent CEO's arrival. Labor tensions at a major U.S. refinery and a softer oil-price environment have added to the cautious tone around the stock.
TTE Overview and Recent Performance
TotalEnergies SE is a French integrated energy company with a diversified footprint across oil and gas production, liquefied natural gas (LNG), refining and chemicals, and an expanding electricity and renewables segment. The company frames its strategy as a "balanced transition," anchored on hydrocarbons and electricity as twin growth pillars.
TotalEnergies' recent performance has been comparatively resilient. Full-year 2025 net income declined year over year amid softer oil prices, but the company raised its full-year dividend and maintained share-buyback guidance, albeit at a reduced near-term pace. Its hydrocarbon production grew in 2025, supported by project start-ups and acquired assets, and the company guided for further modest output growth. In recent quarters, a rebound in realized prices and strength in refining and LNG operations lifted results above analyst expectations. This operational consistency, combined with a stable leadership structure, has translated into noticeably stronger relative stock-price momentum, with the shares advancing substantially on a year-to-date basis.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The sharpest contrast between BP and TTE lies in strategy and capital allocation. BP has narrowed its focus toward conventional oil and gas, prioritizing debt reduction to the point of halting buybacks. TotalEnergies, by contrast, has maintained a broader portfolio that blends hydrocarbons with power and renewables, and it has continued returning cash to shareholders even as it invests across segments.
On growth drivers, TTE's diversified LNG and electricity businesses offer additional catalysts beyond crude pricing, while BP's nearer-term catalysts center on its Bumerangue discovery offshore Brazil and the completion of its disposal program. In terms of risk, BP faces elevated execution and leadership-transition uncertainty plus higher balance-sheet pressure, whereas TotalEnergies carries geopolitical and regulatory exposure tied to its LNG and French retail operations. Sector exposure also differs: both are commodity-sensitive, but TTE's power segment provides some diversification that BP's leaner structure lacks. On recent momentum, TTE has clearly outperformed, reflecting stronger earnings consistency and more constructive shareholder-return signals.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor TTE in the current environment. TotalEnergies demonstrates more consistent trend strength, a steadier earnings trajectory, and retained shareholder-return support, while BP's suspended buybacks and ongoing leadership transition introduce greater uncertainty. The diversified energy model and production-growth guidance give TTE a broader catalyst base. That said, both stocks remain sensitive to oil-price swings, and BP's lower valuation and potential balance-sheet repair could create a re-rating opportunity over time. The relative edge currently appears to rest with TTE, but the outlook is expressed in probabilistic terms rather than as a definitive outcome.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BP is a Buy and TTE is a Buy.
BP in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026
BP moved above its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 26 of 38 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 02, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on BP as a result. In 68 of 101 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BP just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where BP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Following a +1.34% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BP advanced for three days, in 213 of 355 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 189 of 282 cases where BP Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 67%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator has been in the overbought zone for 1 day. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 10 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
BP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 11 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 26, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. BP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 53 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.197) is normal, around the industry mean (1.689). BP has a moderately high P/E Ratio (23.590) as compared to the industry average of (11.356). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.058) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088). Dividend Yield (0.041) settles around the average of (0.046) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.548) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 74 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
TTE's RSI Oscillator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for TTE moved out of oversold territory on October 07, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 22 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 15 of the 22 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 68%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TTE as a result. In 60 of 94 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TTE just turned positive on October 13, 2026. Looking at past instances where TTE's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 30 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
TTE moved above its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for TTE crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +0.98% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TTE advanced for three days, in 205 of 375 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TTE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 47%.
TTE broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 16, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for TTE entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 26, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 38 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.554) is normal, around the industry mean (1.689). P/E Ratio (11.195) is within average values for comparable stocks, (11.356). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.816) is also within normal values, averaging (1.088). Dividend Yield (0.045) settles around the average of (0.046) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.013) is also within normal values, averaging (3.764).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. TTE’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly weaker than average sales and a marginally profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
BP | TTE | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 37 | 31 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 53 Fair valued | 38 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 11 | 6 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 74 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 38 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 96 | 38 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TTE's Valuation (38) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as BP (53). This means that TTE’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
TTE's Profit vs Risk Rating (6) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as BP (11). This means that TTE’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
TTE's SMR Rating (58) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as BP (74). This means that TTE’s stock grew similarly to BP’s over the last 12 months.
BP's Price Growth Rating (38) in the Integrated Oil industry is in the same range as TTE (43). This means that BP’s stock grew similarly to TTE’s over the last 12 months.
TTE's P/E Growth Rating (38) in the Integrated Oil industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BP (96). This means that TTE’s stock grew somewhat faster than BP’s over the last 12 months.
| BP | TTE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 45% | 1 day ago 46% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 64% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 65% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 59% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 58% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 55% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 51% | 17 days ago 47% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 37% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 45% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BP’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while TTE’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- BP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TTE’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BP’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TTE’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- TTE’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
BP (@Integrated Oil) experienced а +2.13% price change this week, while TTE (@Integrated Oil) price change was +0.78% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Integrated Oil industry was -0.21%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +4.39%, and the average quarterly price growth was +9.38%.
Reported Earning Dates
BP is expected to report earnings on Oct 30, 2026.
TTE is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Integrated Oil (-0.21% weekly)Integrated oil companies are involved across nearly the entire oil value chain – from upstream operations like exploration and production, to downstream functions of refining and marketing. Exxon Mobil Corporation, Chevron Corporation and BP are major integrated oil companies. Their bottom lines’ response to crude oil prices could depend on the proportion of upstream vs. downstream businesses; for example, if a company has substantial downstream business, the adverse impact on their upstream business due to falling crude prices could be mitigated by benefits to its downstream business.
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BP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BP has been closely correlated with SHEL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 81% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BP jumps, then SHEL could also see price increases.
TTE and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, TTE has been closely correlated with E. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if TTE jumps, then E could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To TTE | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| TTE | 100% | +0.69% | ||
| E - TTE | 75% Closely correlated | +0.56% | ||
| SHEL - TTE | 71% Closely correlated | +0.42% | ||
| EQNR - TTE | 67% Closely correlated | +0.65% | ||
| BP - TTE | 64% Loosely correlated | +0.40% | ||
| CRGY - TTE | 60% Loosely correlated | -1.26% | ||
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