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BSBR vs ITUB
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Banco Santander (Brasil) (BSBR) vs. Itaú Unibanco Holding (ITUB) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Scale and profitability gap: ITUB is Brazil's largest private bank with a return on average equity (ROAE, a measure of how efficiently shareholder capital generates profit) near 25%, far above BSBR's roughly 12.5%.
- Earnings momentum differs: ITUB has posted double-digit year-over-year profit growth, while BSBR recently reported its weakest quarterly profit since 2023 amid higher loan-loss provisions.
- Ownership overhang: Santander Spain launched a share-swap offer for the minority stake in BSBR it does not already own, an event-specific factor ITUB does not face.
- Shared macro driver: Both ADRs (American Depositary Receipts, U.S.-listed certificates representing foreign shares) rallied with Brazilian assets after the first-round presidential vote, underscoring common country-level risk.
- Analyst tone diverges: Sell-side ratings lean "Buy" for ITUB and "Hold/Neutral" for BSBR, reflecting differing confidence in each bank's earnings trajectory.
Introduction
Both BSBR and ITUB are Brazilian banking franchises that trade on U.S. exchanges as ADRs, giving global investors direct exposure to Latin America's largest economy through the financial sector. Despite operating in the same market and responding to the same interest-rate and credit cycles, the two companies present materially different profiles in scale, profitability, and recent earnings momentum. This stock comparison is relevant for investors seeking Brazilian financial exposure who want to weigh a dominant, high-returning private lender against a large, diversified banking subsidiary undergoing a balance-sheet and credit repositioning. The relative performance of the two names also highlights how market positioning and ownership structure can diverge even within one sector.
BSBR Overview and Recent Performance
BSBR, Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A., is the Brazilian subsidiary of Spain's Santander Group, operating primarily through its Commercial Banking and Global Wholesale Banking segments and serving tens of millions of individual and corporate clients. Recent weeks have been defined by a sharp, macro-driven repricing: Brazilian assets rallied following the first-round presidential vote, lifting bank stocks broadly, with BSBR participating but generally lagging peers in percentage terms.
The rally arrived against a soft fundamental backdrop. The company's most recent quarterly report showed net profit down year over year and below consensus, with a lower ROAE and rising loan-loss provisions. Analysts at JPMorgan and UBS downgraded the stock to Neutral, citing credit-cycle risk and a more gradual earnings recovery, while Goldman Sachs maintained a cautious stance. A separate corporate action—Santander Spain's share-swap offer for the roughly 10.7% minority stake it does not already own—has added an event-driven layer to the stock's market positioning. Even so, the shares carry an attractive dividend yield and a relatively low forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple, which some investors interpret as a margin of safety.
ITUB Overview and Recent Performance
ITUB, Itaú Unibanco Holding S.A., is Brazil's largest private-sector bank, with a diversified franchise spanning retail, wholesale, and investment banking, asset management, and insurance. In recent market activity the stock has displayed strong relative momentum: after the first-round election result, ITUB surged alongside Brazilian assets, and its preferred shares recently regained the top weighting in the Ibovespa index—Brazil's benchmark equity gauge—for the first time in more than six years.
Fundamentally, the bank has delivered resilient results. Its most recent quarter showed recurring profit up about 10% year over year, with ROAE approaching 25%, a stable over-90-day non-performing loan (NPL) ratio, and a credit portfolio expanding across strategic segments such as mortgage lending and premium cards. Goldman Sachs raised its price target while maintaining a Buy rating, though HSBC moved to Hold on valuation. A Common Equity Tier 1 (CET1) ratio—a key measure of a bank's core capital strength—around 12% supports the franchise's stability. Relative to BSBR, ITUB trades at a higher forward P/E, reflecting its stronger and more consistent profitability.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two banks is profitability and earnings consistency. ITUB combines scale—a multi-trillion-real balance sheet—with sector-leading ROAE, giving it a structural advantage in generating and compounding capital. BSBR is also a major franchise, but it is navigating a deliberate portfolio rebalancing toward higher-quality, lower-risk lending, which has compressed near-term net interest income (NII, the spread between what a bank earns on loans and pays on deposits) and raised provisions.
Growth drivers diverge accordingly. ITUB is expanding in secured and premium segments while maintaining stable credit quality. BSBR is emphasizing client engagement and cost discipline, with management signaling that a meaningful recovery in risk-adjusted profitability may extend into 2027. Risk factors are largely shared—Brazilian interest-rate policy, credit cycles, and currency translation—but BSBR carries an additional corporate-event risk tied to its parent's minority buyout, while ITUB faces valuation-related risk after its strong run. In terms of sentiment, both benefit from a more market-friendly political backdrop, yet analysts assign a clearer consensus tilt toward ITUB.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor ITUB at present. The bank shows more consistent trend quality, a stronger and more stable profitability profile, steadier credit metrics, and clearer earnings momentum than BSBR. While BSBR's lower valuation and dividend yield offer a possible contrarian setup, its softer recent results, elevated provisions, and the uncertainty around the parent company's buyout introduce additional variables. The AI's assessment would be probabilistic rather than definitive, weighing trend consistency and catalyst clarity in favor of ITUB while acknowledging that both names remain exposed to the same Brazilian macro and credit-cycle forces.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BSBR is a StrongBuy and ITUB is a StrongBuy.
Momentum Indicator for BSBR turns positive, indicating new upward trend
BSBR saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on November 09, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 92 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 64 of the 92 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 70%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where BSBR's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 19 of 31 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for BSBR just turned positive on November 10, 2026. Looking at past instances where BSBR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +3.06% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where BSBR advanced for three days, in 191 of 284 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
BSBR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 3 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
BSBR moved below its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BSBR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Aroon Indicator for BSBR entered a downward trend on November 10, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 2 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 15 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: BSBR's P/B Ratio (0.273) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.262). P/E Ratio (2.620) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.479). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.160) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.057) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.519) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 71 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. BSBR’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 87 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BSBR’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
ITUB's RSI Indicator ascends from oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for ITUB moved out of oversold territory on November 06, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 22 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 17 of the 22 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on November 11, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ITUB as a result. In 53 of 76 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
The 50-day moving average for ITUB moved above the 200-day moving average on October 14, 2026. This could be a long-term bullish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an upward trend.
Following a +3.70% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ITUB advanced for three days, in 222 of 309 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
ITUB may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for ITUB turned negative on October 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 25 of the 42 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 60%.
ITUB moved below its 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for ITUB crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 02, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 7 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ITUB declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
The Aroon Indicator for ITUB entered a downward trend on November 12, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 2 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 22 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ITUB's P/B Ratio (0.374) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.262). P/E Ratio (1.743) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.479). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.274) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.002) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (2.806) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 24 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. ITUB’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
BSBR | ITUB | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 20 | 9 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 15 Undervalued | 22 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 87 | 24 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 2 | 2 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 71 | 61 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 97 | 96 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
BSBR's Valuation (15) in the Regional Banks industry is in the same range as ITUB (22) in the Major Banks industry. This means that BSBR’s stock grew similarly to ITUB’s over the last 12 months.
ITUB's Profit vs Risk Rating (24) in the Major Banks industry is somewhat better than the same rating for BSBR (87) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that ITUB’s stock grew somewhat faster than BSBR’s over the last 12 months.
ITUB's SMR Rating (2) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as BSBR (2) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that ITUB’s stock grew similarly to BSBR’s over the last 12 months.
ITUB's Price Growth Rating (61) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as BSBR (71) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that ITUB’s stock grew similarly to BSBR’s over the last 12 months.
ITUB's P/E Growth Rating (96) in the Major Banks industry is in the same range as BSBR (97) in the Regional Banks industry. This means that ITUB’s stock grew similarly to BSBR’s over the last 12 months.
| BSBR | ITUB | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 61% | 2 days ago 77% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 57% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 70% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 70% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 53% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 6 days ago 72% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 71% | 16 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 46% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BSBR’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while ITUB’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- BSBR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- ITUB’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BSBR’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ITUB’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BSBR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- ITUB’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
BSBR (@Regional Banks) experienced а +8.84% price change this week, while ITUB (@Regional Banks) price change was +1.89% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +1.00%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.45%, and the average quarterly price growth was +11.77%.
Reported Earning Dates
BSBR is expected to report earnings on Feb 03, 2027.
ITUB is expected to report earnings on Feb 10, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+1.00% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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BSBR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BSBR has been closely correlated with BBD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BSBR jumps, then BBD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BSBR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BSBR | 100% | +0.60% | ||
| BBD - BSBR | 75% Closely correlated | +2.39% | ||
| BBDO - BSBR | 71% Closely correlated | N/A | ||
| NU - BSBR | 62% Loosely correlated | +11.75% | ||
| INTR - BSBR | 61% Loosely correlated | +4.67% | ||
| BSAC - BSBR | 52% Loosely correlated | +1.44% | ||
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ITUB and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ITUB has been loosely correlated with BBD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ITUB jumps, then BBD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ITUB | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ITUB | 100% | +2.17% | ||
| BBD - ITUB | 65% Loosely correlated | +2.39% | ||
| INTR - ITUB | 64% Loosely correlated | +4.67% | ||
| BBDO - ITUB | 60% Loosely correlated | N/A | ||
| LYG - ITUB | 47% Loosely correlated | +0.77% | ||
| NU - ITUB | 46% Loosely correlated | +11.75% | ||
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