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BSBR vs NU
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Banco Santander Brasil (BSBR) vs. Nu Holdings (NU) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- BSBR is an established Brazilian commercial bank; NU is Latin America's largest digital-only bank.
- NU is growing faster and more profitably, with roughly 33% ROE (return on equity), versus BSBR's 12.5%.
- BSBR offers an income-oriented profile through dividends, while NU reinvests heavily in expansion.
- Both stocks rallied in recent weeks on renewed optimism about Brazil's political and economic outlook.
- Analyst sentiment is mixed on BSBR (Hold) but broadly constructive on NU (Buy).
- Relative positioning favors NU on growth momentum, though it carries higher volatility and currency sensitivity.
Introduction
Brazil's financial sector is home to two very different publicly traded stories. BSBR represents the traditional incumbent model: a large, branch-based commercial bank with a long history and a meaningful dividend. NU represents the digital disruptor: a fast-scaling, mobile-first fintech that has become a primary bank for tens of millions of Brazilians. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing income and stability against growth and momentum, and for traders tracking how political and currency developments in Brazil move both names. The two companies serve overlapping customers yet compete with sharply different business models, cost structures, and growth profiles.
BSBR Overview and Recent Performance
Banco Santander (Brasil) S.A. (BSBR) is the Brazilian subsidiary of Spain's Santander Group, operating through Commercial Banking and Global Wholesale Banking segments. In recent market activity, the stock has traded well below its 52-week high, with a market capitalization around $21 billion and a dividend yield that has attracted income-focused investors.
Sentiment has been pressured by softer earnings. In its most recent quarter, net profit declined roughly 18% year over year, falling short of consensus, while loan-loss provisions rose and return on average equity (ROAE) slipped to about 12.5%. Net interest income (NII) — the difference between interest earned on loans and interest paid on deposits — was essentially flat. These results prompted several analysts to downgrade the shares to Hold or Neutral ratings.
Two structural factors have also shaped recent performance. Santander Spain launched a share-swap offer to acquire the minority stake in the Brazilian unit it does not already own, and the stock rallied in recent weeks alongside Brazilian peers after a presidential first-round vote that markets interpreted as potentially more business-friendly. A runoff election remains a key near-term catalyst.
NU Overview and Recent Performance
Nu Holdings Ltd. (NU) operates Nubank, Latin America's largest digital-only bank, with a customer base now exceeding 130 million across Brazil, Mexico, and Colombia. The company has converted scale into profitability, reporting its first billion-dollar quarterly net income, roughly 33% ROE, and average monthly revenue per active customer (ARPAC) near $17.
In recent weeks, NU shares rallied sharply, in part because Brazilian assets re-rated after the presidential first-round vote and because the company clarified it was not pursuing a reported acquisition of U.K. digital bank Monzo. Broader catalysts include receiving banking authorization in Mexico, a September U.S. product launch, and a newly announced $1 billion share buyback.
Despite these positives, the stock has been volatile. It remains below its 52-week high, and the company earns most revenue in local currencies while reporting in U.S. dollars, exposing results to exchange-rate swings. Analysts nonetheless maintain a broadly constructive Buy consensus, citing customer growth, operating leverage, and international expansion.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast is business model. BSBR operates a traditional branch and wholesale franchise with a large loan book and a payout-oriented capital return policy, while NU runs a low-cost, app-first model that scales customers rapidly and monetizes through credit, deposits, and cross-selling.
Growth drivers differ accordingly. NU is expanding internationally and deepening engagement per customer, while BSBR is focused on credit-quality discipline, efficiency gains, and a more conservative lending mix. Profitability strongly favors NU, whose ROE materially exceeds BSBR's, though BSBR's dividend provides an income component NU does not emphasize.
Risk profiles also diverge. Both are exposed to Brazilian interest rates, credit cycles, and the real's value, but NU adds execution risk from new-market launches and higher share-price volatility. BSBR faces a corporate restructuring tied to its parent's share-swap offer, alongside recent analyst downgrades. In relative performance terms, NU has shown stronger momentum, though both have benefited from the same macro repricing.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, earnings momentum, and growth catalysts, Tickeron's AI framework would likely lean toward NU in the current environment. The stock combines stronger top-line growth, higher and rising profitability, and a broader set of expansion catalysts, supported by a Buy-side analyst consensus and positive recent momentum. BSBR presents a more value- and income-oriented profile, but its softer earnings trend, flat net interest income, and mixed analyst ratings suggest less consistent directional momentum. Because outcomes depend on evolving catalysts such as Brazil's runoff election and currency moves, the preference is expressed in probabilistic terms rather than as a definitive forecast.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is BSBR is a Buy and NU is a Buy.
BSBR in +2.72% Uptrend, rising for three consecutive days on October 21, 2026
Moving higher for three straight days is viewed as a bullish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future growth. Considering data from situations where BSBR advanced for three days, in 189 of 283 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 5 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
BSBR may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 19, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on BSBR as a result. In 58 of 92 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for BSBR turned negative on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 50 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 32 of the 50 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 64%.
BSBR moved below its 50-day moving average on October 12, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for BSBR crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 01, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 88%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where BSBR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
The Aroon Indicator for BSBR entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 2 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 14 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is seriously undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: BSBR's P/B Ratio (0.265) is slightly lower than the industry average of (1.276). P/E Ratio (2.546) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.599). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.160) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.059) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.519) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. BSBR’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 96 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 98 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. BSBR’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock worse than average.
NU's Stochastic Oscillator sits in oversold zone for 5 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an Uptrend is expected.
Following a +16.61% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NU advanced for three days, in 231 of 300 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
NU may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 19, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NU as a result. In 57 of 79 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for NU turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 24 of the 42 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 57%.
NU moved below its 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NU crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 13 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NU declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
The Aroon Indicator for NU entered a downward trend on October 08, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 5 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 74 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. NU’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 91 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 94 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: NU's P/B Ratio (4.237) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.276). P/E Ratio (15.620) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.599). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.563) is also within normal values, averaging (1.190). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.036) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.149) is also within normal values, averaging (3.738).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. NU’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 56, placing this stock worse than average.
BSBR | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 17 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 14 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 98 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 2 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 77 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 96 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| BSBR | NU | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 78% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 86% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 72% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 57% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 68% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 63% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 67% | 28 days ago 77% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 15 days ago 70% | 6 days ago 67% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 86% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 61% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
BSBR’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while NU’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- BSBR’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- NU’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
BSBR’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NU’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- BSBR’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- NU’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
Price Growth
BSBR (@Regional Banks) experienced а -20.54% price change this week, while NU (@Regional Banks) price change was -7.70% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Regional Banks industry was +0.79%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.64%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.37%.
Reported Earning Dates
BSBR is expected to report earnings on Feb 03, 2027.
NU is expected to report earnings on Nov 12, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Regional Banks (+0.79% weekly)Regional banks have a smaller reach than major banks, and cater mostly to one region of a country, such as a state or within a group of states. They offer services often similar – albeit with some limitations/smaller scale – compared to major banks. Taking deposits, making loans, mortgages, leases, credit cards , fund management, insurance and investment banking. SunTrust Banks, State Street Corp., M&T Bank Corp. are some examples of U.S. regional banks.
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BSBR and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, BSBR has been closely correlated with BBD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if BSBR jumps, then BBD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To BSBR | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| BSBR | 100% | +2.27% | ||
| BBD - BSBR | 75% Closely correlated | +0.39% | ||
| BBDO - BSBR | 71% Closely correlated | +0.41% | ||
| NU - BSBR | 62% Loosely correlated | +0.09% | ||
| INTR - BSBR | 61% Loosely correlated | +0.50% | ||
| BSAC - BSBR | 52% Loosely correlated | +3.47% | ||
More | ||||
NU and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NU has been closely correlated with BBD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NU jumps, then BBD could also see price increases.