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CAT vs FSS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Caterpillar (CAT) vs. Federal Signal (FSS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- CAT reported record second-quarter 2026 revenue of $20.54 billion, up 24% year over year, supported by a $72 billion backlog tied to power-generation demand for data centers.
- FSS delivered record second-quarter 2026 results with net sales of $670 million, up 19%, and raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance after beating estimates.
- CAT trades near $818 with a market capitalization exceeding $376 billion, reflecting larger scale and exposure to global infrastructure and energy markets.
- FSS trades near $114 with a market capitalization of approximately $7 billion, showing stronger recent revenue growth rates but more modest absolute performance.
- Both companies operate in the industrials sector, yet CAT benefits from broader end-market diversification while FSS focuses on environmental and safety solutions with recent acquisition-driven expansion.
- Recent market activity shows CAT maintaining stronger year-to-date momentum compared with FSS, amid differing sensitivities to macroeconomic and sector-specific factors.
Introduction
Publicly traded companies Caterpillar Inc. (CAT) and Federal Signal Corporation (FSS) offer distinct profiles within the industrials sector. CAT is a global leader in heavy machinery and power systems, while FSS specializes in environmental solutions and safety equipment. This comparison examines their recent performance, business drivers, and market positioning to assist traders and investors evaluating relative opportunities in capital goods and infrastructure-related equities. The analysis draws on observable financial metrics and sector trends to highlight trade-offs relevant to portfolio construction and sector allocation decisions.
CAT Overview and Recent Performance
Caterpillar Inc. designs, manufactures, and markets construction and mining equipment, diesel and natural gas engines, and power-generation systems. In recent weeks, the stock has reflected strength from robust demand in power and energy segments, particularly equipment supporting data-center expansion. Second-quarter 2026 results showed record sales and revenues of $20.54 billion, a 24% increase, with a backlog reaching $72 billion. Adjusted earnings per share rose significantly, and the company raised annual revenue-growth guidance. Recent market activity indicates some consolidation after strong prior gains, with shares trading near $818 amid broader industrial-sector volatility. Sentiment has been supported by infrastructure spending and energy-transition tailwinds, though margin pressures from volume mix and costs remain factors in ongoing evaluations.
FSS Overview and Recent Performance
Federal Signal Corporation provides environmental solutions, safety and security systems, and related equipment primarily for municipal, industrial, and governmental customers. Recent performance has been driven by organic growth, acquisitions, and aftermarket demand. Second-quarter 2026 net sales reached $670 million, up 19% year over year, with adjusted earnings per share exceeding consensus estimates. The company raised its full-year adjusted EPS outlook to a range of $5.12 to $5.30. Shares have traded near $114, with a market capitalization around $7 billion. Recent market activity shows relative underperformance versus broader industrials benchmarks over the past month, influenced by sector rotation and macroeconomic considerations, while order momentum and cash generation have remained positive contributors to sentiment.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
CAT operates at significantly larger scale with diversified exposure across construction, mining, and power-generation markets, whereas FSS maintains a narrower focus on environmental and safety equipment with growth augmented by acquisitions. Revenue growth rates in recent quarters favored FSS on a percentage basis, yet CAT’s absolute backlog and data-center-related catalysts provide greater visibility into multi-year demand. Market capitalization differences underscore contrasting liquidity and volatility profiles, with CAT exhibiting higher beta relative to FSS. Sector sentiment has been supportive for both amid infrastructure themes, though CAT has shown more pronounced momentum tied to energy infrastructure while FSS has emphasized margin expansion and cash-flow consistency. Risk factors include supply-chain dynamics and end-market cyclicality for CAT, contrasted with integration and competitive pressures for FSS.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as backlog consistency, revenue visibility, and positioning within high-demand infrastructure segments, Tickeron’s AI models currently assign a higher probabilistic weighting to CAT relative to FSS in trend-stability assessments. FSS demonstrates competitive growth metrics and guidance revisions that could support outperformance in specific scenarios. Market conditions, including sector rotation and macroeconomic variables, may influence relative trajectories, and ongoing monitoring of order trends and margin realization remains warranted.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CAT is a Buy and FSS is a Buy.
CAT | FSS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 88 Overvalued | 64 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 17 | 15 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 19 | 46 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 43 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 13 | 75 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
FSS's Valuation (64) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as CAT (88). This means that FSS’s stock grew similarly to CAT’s over the last 12 months.
FSS's Profit vs Risk Rating (15) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as CAT (17). This means that FSS’s stock grew similarly to CAT’s over the last 12 months.
CAT's SMR Rating (19) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as FSS (46). This means that CAT’s stock grew similarly to FSS’s over the last 12 months.
CAT's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is in the same range as FSS (58). This means that CAT’s stock grew similarly to FSS’s over the last 12 months.
CAT's P/E Growth Rating (13) in the Trucks Or Construction Or Farm Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for FSS (75). This means that CAT’s stock grew somewhat faster than FSS’s over the last 12 months.
| CAT | FSS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 4 days ago 58% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 51% | 4 days ago 72% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 71% | 4 days ago 63% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 76% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 73% | 4 days ago 68% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 68% | 4 days ago 56% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 74% | 7 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 13 days ago 56% | 5 days ago 56% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 4 days ago 72% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 55% | 4 days ago 65% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CAT’s FA Score shows that 3 FA rating(s) are green while FSS’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- CAT’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
- FSS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CAT’s TA Score shows that 3 TA indicator(s) are bullish while FSS’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CAT’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 3 bearish.
- FSS’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CAT (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) experienced а +1.56% price change this week, while FSS (@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery) price change was +0.81% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery industry was -2.64%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.00%, and the average quarterly price growth was +6.98%.
Reported Earning Dates
CAT is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
FSS is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Trucks/Construction/Farm Machinery (-2.64% weekly)The industry designs and builds agricultural, construction and other large commercial and transportation equipment. Tractors, planters and harvesters, as well as rock-crushing, railroad, demolition and other construction implements are produced by this industry. Rapid urbanization and industrialization has been bolstering the expansion of the construction sector in the past few decades, thereby boosting demand for heavy equipment businesses. Caterpillar Inc., Deere & Company and Cummins Inc (Ex. Cummins Engine Inc) are some prominent companies in this industry.
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| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| ASTX | 10.57 | 0.23 | +2.22% |
| Tradr 2X Long ASTS Daily ETF (ASTX) | |||
| EEM | 67.98 | 0.73 | +1.09% |
| iShares MSCI Emerging Markets ETF (EEM) | |||
| KARS | 28.29 | 0.17 | +0.60% |
| KraneShares Electric Vehicles & Future Mobility Index ETF (KARS) | |||
| JDVL | 31.66 | 0.17 | +0.54% |
| John Hancock Disciplined Value Select ETF (JDVL) | |||
| VRAI | 27.25 | -0.01 | -0.05% |
| Virtus Real Asset Income ETF (VRAI) | |||
CAT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CAT has been loosely correlated with TEX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 60% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if CAT jumps, then TEX could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CAT | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CAT | 100% | +2.03% | ||
| TEX - CAT | 60% Loosely correlated | +1.25% | ||
| OSK - CAT | 55% Loosely correlated | +1.98% | ||
| ASTE - CAT | 55% Loosely correlated | +1.70% | ||
| CMCO - CAT | 49% Loosely correlated | +4.99% | ||
| FSS - CAT | 49% Loosely correlated | +1.75% | ||
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