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CMC vs MT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Commercial Metals Company (CMC) vs. ArcelorMittal (MT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Commercial Metals Company (CMC) specializes in U.S.-focused steel recycling and fabrication, contrasting with ArcelorMittal's (MT) global integrated steel and mining operations.
- MT has delivered stronger year-to-date (YTD) gains around 30%, outpacing CMC's near-flat YTD performance amid recent sector volatility.
- Both stocks have pulled back from 52-week highs, with CMC trading near $69 and MT around $59, reflecting steel price fluctuations.
- CMC reported a recent quarterly earnings per share (EPS) miss but revenue growth, while MT benefits from diversified mining assets.
- U.S. infrastructure and data center demand support CMC, but MT's scale provides broader exposure to global steel trends.
Introduction
Commercial Metals Company (CMC) and ArcelorMittal (MT) represent key players in the steel sector, where both companies navigate volatile commodity prices, infrastructure demand, and global supply dynamics. This comparison is particularly relevant for traders seeking relative momentum plays and investors eyeing sector rotation amid economic shifts. With steel prices showing resilience from construction and data centers, understanding their business models, recent price behaviors, and market positioning helps assess trade-offs in a cyclical industry. Both stocks offer exposure to metals recovery, but differ in scale and geography, aiding decisions on short-term trades or longer-term holdings.
CMC Overview and Recent Performance
Commercial Metals Company (CMC) operates primarily in North America, recycling scrap metal and manufacturing rebar and structural steel for construction. Its segments include North America Steel, Europe Steel, and Emerging Businesses, with a focus on fabricated products for infrastructure projects. In recent market activity, CMC shares have traded around $69, down from a 52-week high near $85 but up over 50% in the past year. Sentiment has been influenced by a recent quarterly EPS miss of $1.16 alongside revenue growth to $2.1 billion, driven by higher steel selling prices amid data center and infrastructure demand. Broader steel price upticks have supported margins, though volatility from earnings has led to a pullback in recent weeks, with weekly gains around 6% signaling potential stabilization.
MT Overview and Recent Performance
ArcelorMittal (MT), headquartered in Luxembourg, is the world's leading integrated steel and mining company, producing flat and long steel products across the Americas, Europe, Asia, and Africa. It also mines iron ore and coal, providing cost advantages through vertical integration. Recently, MT shares have hovered near $59, retreating from a 52-week peak above $67 but boasting over 100% one-year gains and 30% YTD returns. Performance reflects robust prior quarterly results and global demand, tempered by steel price fluctuations. Key developments include sustainability initiatives and analyst consensus updates, fostering positive sentiment despite short-term dips, with the company's scale aiding resilience in volatile markets.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
CMC and MT both serve the steel industry but diverge in business models: CMC emphasizes U.S. recycling and fabrication for construction, while MT offers global scale with mining integration for cost efficiency. Growth drivers for CMC include domestic infrastructure and data centers boosting rebar demand, contrasting MT's exposure to automotive and energy via diverse products. Recent momentum favors MT with superior YTD returns, though CMC shows weekly recovery. Risk factors highlight MT's higher beta (1.71) and geopolitical vulnerabilities versus CMC's (1.47) U.S.-centric cyclicality. Market sentiment remains constructive for both, with similar price-to-earnings (P/E) ratios around 15 and analyst targets implying upside, but MT's larger market cap underscores stability trade-offs.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron’s AI currently leans toward MT with higher probability, citing its stronger YTD momentum, global diversification, and vertical integration amid favorable steel trends. While CMC offers compelling U.S. exposure and recent price stabilization, MT's relative positioning and catalysts like mining output provide greater trend consistency in the current environment.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is CMC is a StrongBuy and MT is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
CMC’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green whileMT’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- CMC’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- MT’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
CMC’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MT’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- CMC’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
CMC (@Metal Fabrication) experienced а +4.87% price change this week, while MT (@Steel) price change was +5.36% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Metal Fabrication industry was +12.27%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +18.93%, and the average quarterly price growth was +17.76%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Steel industry was +179.67%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +134.84%, and the average quarterly price growth was +13.10%.
Reported Earning Dates
CMC is expected to report earnings on Jun 25, 2026.
MT is expected to report earnings on Jul 30, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Metal Fabrication (+12.27% weekly)The industry is involved in value-added processes including creation of metal structures like machines and parts by cutting, bending and assembling, using various raw materials. A fabrication shop often bids on a project/job, and then builds the product if awarded the contract. Robotics and automation are making their way into the industry apparently to fill in skills gap[s19] . RBC Bearings Incorporated, Timken Company and Valmont Industries, Inc. are some of the largest metal fabrication companies in the U.S.
@Steel (+179.67% weekly)The steel industry includes manufacturers of steel and steel-related products. Companies use iron ore and scrap steel to produce steel. The industry also includes companies involved in mining and marketing of steel products. Along with serving some of the domestic markets, U.S. steel output has, over the years, been used by international economies as well. Competition from imported steel has also increased over time. The industry could be susceptible to business cycles, since the element is an important input in industrial production. Some of the globally-renowned steel behemoths include Nucor Corporation, Vale, and ArcelorMittal SA.
| CMC | MT | CMC / MT | |
| Capitalization | 8.62B | 53.3B | 16% |
| EBITDA | 1B | 3.99B | 25% |
| Gain YTD | 12.971 | 56.127 | 23% |
| P/E Ratio | 17.40 | 18.54 | 94% |
| Revenue | 8.39B | 62B | 14% |
| Total Cash | 495M | 4.36B | 11% |
| Total Debt | 3.36B | 13.7B | 25% |
CMC | MT | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 67 | 91 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 25 Undervalued | 22 Undervalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 25 | 22 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 66 | 95 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 41 | 37 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 99 | 58 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MT's Valuation (22) in the Steel industry is in the same range as CMC (25) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that MT’s stock grew similarly to CMC’s over the last 12 months.
MT's Profit vs Risk Rating (22) in the Steel industry is in the same range as CMC (25) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that MT’s stock grew similarly to CMC’s over the last 12 months.
CMC's SMR Rating (66) in the Metal Fabrication industry is in the same range as MT (95) in the Steel industry. This means that CMC’s stock grew similarly to MT’s over the last 12 months.
MT's Price Growth Rating (37) in the Steel industry is in the same range as CMC (41) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that MT’s stock grew similarly to CMC’s over the last 12 months.
MT's P/E Growth Rating (58) in the Steel industry is somewhat better than the same rating for CMC (99) in the Metal Fabrication industry. This means that MT’s stock grew somewhat faster than CMC’s over the last 12 months.
| CMC | MT | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 74% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 80% | 3 days ago 74% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 77% | 3 days ago 68% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 69% | 3 days ago 68% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 71% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 74% | 3 days ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 62% | 5 days ago 65% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 70% | 3 days ago 62% |
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CMC and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, CMC has been closely correlated with STLD. These tickers have moved in lockstep 73% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if CMC jumps, then STLD could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To CMC | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CMC | 100% | +0.01% | ||
| STLD - CMC | 73% Closely correlated | +1.15% | ||
| RS - CMC | 68% Closely correlated | +0.73% | ||
| NUE - CMC | 66% Loosely correlated | +2.09% | ||
| MTUS - CMC | 65% Loosely correlated | -1.06% | ||
| WS - CMC | 63% Loosely correlated | +0.25% | ||
More | ||||
MT and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MT has been loosely correlated with TX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 65% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if MT jumps, then TX could also see price increases.