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PBF vs PSX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? PBF Energy (PBF) vs. Phillips 66 (PSX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- PBF is a pure-play U.S. refiner, while PSX is a diversified, integrated downstream energy company spanning refining, midstream, chemicals, marketing, and renewable fuels.
- PBF has delivered stronger recent price momentum and trades at a materially lower valuation multiple, but carries higher volatility and more concentrated risk.
- PSX offers more stable, diversified cash flow, supported by fee-based midstream and chemicals businesses that partially offset refining cyclicality.
- Both companies are benefiting from tight global product supply, low inventories, and elevated crack spreads in the current refining environment.
- Relative positioning favors PSX for consistency and downside resilience, and PBF for higher-beta exposure to refining margins.
Introduction
Investors weighing exposure to the U.S. downstream energy sector often compare PBF (PBF Energy Inc.) and PSX (Phillips 66) as two contrasting ways to access refining economics. Both companies process crude oil into transportation fuels and related products, yet their business models differ sharply in scale and diversification. This stock comparison is relevant for traders seeking higher-momentum, higher-beta names as well as long-term investors prioritizing earnings stability. By examining recent performance, market positioning, and risk factors, readers can better understand how these two refiners stack up in the current market environment.
PBF Overview and Recent Performance
PBF Energy Inc. operates six U.S. refineries with combined crude processing capacity of roughly one million barrels per day, supported by a weighted-average Nelson Complexity Index of 12.8, a measure of a refinery's ability to convert lower-quality crude into higher-value products. The company's two segments—Refining and Logistics—concentrate its earnings in the more cyclical refining business. In recent weeks, PBF shares have shown strong momentum, gaining sharply over the trailing twelve months as tight product supply and constrained global refining capacity lifted margins. Key catalysts have included the full restart of its Martinez refinery, an improving cost structure through its Refining Business Improvement program, and meaningful net-debt reduction. The company's second-quarter 2026 results swung to a profit on higher throughput and stronger realized margins. However, sensitivity to refining margins, environmental-compliance costs, and regional operating risks keep the stock's profile more volatile than that of larger, diversified peers.
PSX Overview and Recent Performance
Phillips 66 is a leading integrated downstream energy provider headquartered in Houston, with a portfolio spanning Midstream, Chemicals, Refining, Marketing and Specialties, and Renewable Fuels. This diversification means PSX generates stable, fee-based earnings from pipelines, terminals, and natural gas liquids (NGL) infrastructure, which helps offset the cyclicality of refining. In recent market activity, the company reported robust second-quarter 2026 results, with adjusted earnings rising sharply on wider realized refining margins and record midstream fractionation and liquefied petroleum gas export volumes. Management has emphasized capital discipline, debt reduction, and shareholder returns, including dividends and share repurchases. While PSX has lagged PBF's one-year price gains, its more balanced earnings mix and larger scale generally translate into lower volatility and greater downside resilience.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between PBF and PSX lies in business-model concentration versus diversification. PBF's earnings are almost entirely tied to refining margins, making it a higher-beta play on crack spreads—the difference between refined product prices and crude costs. Its valuation is notably cheaper on an enterprise-value-to-EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) basis, but the stock also trades near the high end of its own historical range, suggesting much of the optimism may already be priced in. By contrast, PSX commands a premium multiple for its diversified, integrated model, which includes fee-based midstream and chemicals earnings that cushion refining downturns. In terms of market sentiment, both names have benefited from the same favorable supply backdrop, yet PBF carries greater company-specific risk tied to single-asset reliability and regulatory costs, while PSX faces risks spread across a broader asset base.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, earnings diversification, and relative stability, Tickeron's AI would likely favor PSX for investors prioritizing steadier, multi-segment cash flow and a more balanced risk profile. The stock's integrated model and fee-based midstream earnings tend to produce more consistent trend behavior and resilience during refining downturns. For traders specifically seeking maximum upside exposure to refining margin expansion, however, the AI would likely view PBF as the higher-momentum, higher-volatility candidate, recognizing that its cheaper valuation and sharper recent performance come with correspondingly greater downside sensitivity. The favorable probability-weighted positioning therefore leans toward PSX for consistency, while acknowledging PBF's appeal for tactical, higher-risk momentum strategies.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PBF is a StrongBuy and PSX is a Buy.
PBF | PSX | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 41 | 76 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 27 Undervalued | 48 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 23 | 7 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 41 | 40 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 34 | 13 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 87 | 94 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PBF's Valuation (27) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PSX (48). This means that PBF’s stock grew similarly to PSX’s over the last 12 months.
PSX's Profit vs Risk Rating (7) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PBF (23). This means that PSX’s stock grew similarly to PBF’s over the last 12 months.
PSX's SMR Rating (40) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PBF (41). This means that PSX’s stock grew similarly to PBF’s over the last 12 months.
PSX's Price Growth Rating (13) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PBF (34). This means that PSX’s stock grew similarly to PBF’s over the last 12 months.
PBF's P/E Growth Rating (87) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PSX (94). This means that PBF’s stock grew similarly to PSX’s over the last 12 months.
| PBF | PSX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 56% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 81% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 89% | 2 days ago 75% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 77% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 76% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 72% | 11 days ago 57% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 83% | 2 days ago 60% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 86% | 2 days ago 69% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PBF’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while PSX’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- PBF’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- PSX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PBF’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PSX’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PBF’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PSX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
PBF (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а +4.32% price change this week, while PSX (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was +5.14% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was +2.79%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +2.36%, and the average quarterly price growth was +42.70%.
Reported Earning Dates
PBF is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
PSX is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (+2.79% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
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PBF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PBF has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 78% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PBF jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.
PSX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PSX has been closely correlated with MPC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PSX jumps, then MPC could also see price increases.