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PBF vs PSX
Which Stock Would AI Choose? PBF Energy (PBF) vs. Phillips 66 (PSX) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Business model contrast: PBF is a pure-play independent refiner, while PSX operates a diversified, integrated downstream portfolio spanning refining, midstream, chemicals, and marketing.
- Scale gap: Phillips 66's roughly 2.0 million barrels per day of refining capacity is about double PBF's roughly 1 million barrels per day, giving PSX broader geographic and segment diversification.
- Recent momentum: Both stocks have rallied sharply on wider refining margins, but PBF has posted larger percentage gains over the trailing year, reflecting its higher-beta, refining-concentrated profile.
- Balance-sheet posture: PBF has aggressively de-leveraged, cutting net debt by over 60% in the most recent quarter, while PSX carries substantially more debt against a larger, more diversified cash-flow base.
- Shareholder returns: PSX returned roughly $887 million to shareholders in its latest quarter through dividends and buybacks; PBF prioritizes debt reduction and modest dividends.
- For more detail on each name, explore PBF Major News and PBF Today's Price Move, as well as PSX Major News and PSX Today's Price Move.
- To see how AI-driven trading systems are positioning across the market, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Both PBF and PSX operate in the same downstream energy sector, yet they represent very different investment profiles. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors weighing a concentrated, higher-beta refining play against a diversified, integrated energy business. With refining margins widening sharply in recent months on geopolitical supply disruptions and low global product inventories, both companies have delivered exceptional results. Understanding the trade-offs in business model, balance-sheet strength, and market positioning can help readers assess which exposure better matches their objectives and risk tolerance.
PBF Overview and Recent Performance
PBF Energy Inc. is one of the largest independent refiners in North America, operating six refineries with roughly 1 million barrels per day of processing capacity across the East Coast, Gulf Coast, West Coast, and Mid-Continent. Recent market activity has been strong: the company reported second-quarter adjusted earnings of $6.22 per share, reversing a year-ago loss, with revenue up more than 50% year over year.
Sentiment has been shaped by several factors. The restart of the fire-damaged Martinez, California refinery to full operations restored a key earnings engine just as regional product supplies tightened. Wider crack spreads, the difference between refined product prices and crude oil costs, lifted gross refining margins to roughly $23.40 per barrel, nearly three times the prior-year level. Management also cut net debt by more than 60% in the quarter, improving financial flexibility. The stock has gained sharply over the trailing year, though its concentrated refining exposure leaves it more sensitive to margin swings and maintenance cycles.
PSX Overview and Recent Performance
PSX, Phillips 66, is a leading integrated downstream energy provider headquartered in Houston. Its portfolio spans Refining, Midstream, Chemicals (through its CPChem joint venture), Marketing and Specialties, and Renewable Fuels, supported by about 2.0 million barrels per day of crude capacity across 10 refineries. This diversification is central to its identity.
Recent performance has been robust. Phillips 66 reported second-quarter adjusted earnings of $9.41 per share, up about 295% year over year, with revenue of $52.04 billion. Refining achieved 96% crude utilization and a realized margin of $24.08 per barrel, while midstream set volume records and the renewable fuels segment swung to a profit. The company returned $887 million to shareholders through dividends and repurchases and continued advancing midstream growth projects. Broader segment diversification generally moderates PSX's volatility relative to pure refiners, though it also dilutes direct leverage to refining margin spikes.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between PBF and PSX is concentration versus diversification. PBF's earnings are almost entirely tied to refining margins, which makes it a higher-beta expression of the current supply-shock environment but also leaves it more exposed when margins compress or turnarounds reduce throughput. Its smaller scale and pure-play structure have driven outsized percentage gains, but also larger drawdown risk.
Phillips 66's integrated model blends volatile refining earnings with steadier, fee-based midstream cash flows and contributions from chemicals and marketing. This tends to smooth results and supports a larger, more consistent capital-return program, but it also means PSX captures a smaller share of any refining-margin upswing on a per-share basis. In terms of relative performance, both have benefited from the same macro tailwinds, yet PBF's narrower focus has amplified its momentum, while PSX offers greater stability and a lower beta profile. Risk factors differ accordingly: PBF faces maintenance, compliance-cost, and single-segment exposure, whereas PSX faces labor, turnaround, and policy risks across a broader footprint.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, catalyst strength, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor PBF in the current environment. PBF's sharper earnings inflection, aggressive debt reduction, and more direct leverage to widening refining margins suggest stronger near-term momentum and a more concentrated catalyst profile. However, this is a probabilistic assessment: PBF's higher volatility and single-segment exposure make it less stable than PSX, whose diversified cash flows may hold up better if refining conditions normalize. The AI's preference reflects a balance tilted toward momentum and earnings revision strength rather than a definitive forecast of future returns.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is PBF is a Hold and PSX is a Hold.
PBF in downward trend: price dove below 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026
PBF moved below its 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 29 of 38 similar past instances, the stock price decreased further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for PBF moved out of overbought territory on October 14, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 28 of the 42 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 67%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PBF as a result. In 54 of 73 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for PBF turned negative on October 19, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 47 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 30 of the 47 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 64%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PBF declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 7 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +8.19% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PBF advanced for three days, in 264 of 318 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 83%.
PBF may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 259 of 315 cases where PBF Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 82%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 37, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PBF’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 43 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.398) is normal, around the industry mean (4.758). P/E Ratio (6.529) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.045). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.190) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.015) settles around the average of (0.061) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.260) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 85 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
PSX sees MACD Histogram crosses below signal line
PSX saw its Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) turn negative on October 22, 2026. This is a bearish signal that suggests the stock could decline going forward. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 49 instances where the indicator turned negative. In 30 of the 49 cases the stock moved lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of a downward move at 61%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for PSX moved out of overbought territory on October 19, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 27 of the 48 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 56%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 27, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on PSX as a result. In 47 of 78 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PSX declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 57%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 2 days, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
Following a +5.62% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PSX advanced for three days, in 272 of 356 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
PSX may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 240 of 332 cases where PSX Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 72%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 3 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. PSX’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 8 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 37, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 69 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.465) is normal, around the industry mean (4.758). P/E Ratio (15.564) is within average values for comparable stocks, (13.045). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.811) is also within normal values, averaging (1.079). Dividend Yield (0.019) settles around the average of (0.061) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.704) is also within normal values, averaging (0.549).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
PBF | PSX | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 78 | 91 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 43 Fair valued | 69 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 8 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 41 | 40 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 36 | 3 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 85 | 89 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PBF's Valuation (43) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PSX (69). This means that PBF’s stock grew similarly to PSX’s over the last 12 months.
PSX's Profit vs Risk Rating (8) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PBF (31). This means that PSX’s stock grew similarly to PBF’s over the last 12 months.
PSX's SMR Rating (40) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PBF (41). This means that PSX’s stock grew similarly to PBF’s over the last 12 months.
PSX's Price Growth Rating (3) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is somewhat better than the same rating for PBF (36). This means that PSX’s stock grew somewhat faster than PBF’s over the last 12 months.
PBF's P/E Growth Rating (85) in the Oil Refining Or Marketing industry is in the same range as PSX (89). This means that PBF’s stock grew similarly to PSX’s over the last 12 months.
| PBF | PSX | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 56% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 79% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 61% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 51% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 83% | 1 day ago 74% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 17 days ago 83% | 16 days ago 76% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 7 days ago 57% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 78% | 1 day ago 76% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 82% | 1 day ago 72% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
PBF’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while PSX’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- PBF’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PSX’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
PBF’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PSX’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- PBF’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
- PSX’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
PBF (@Oil Refining/Marketing) experienced а -4.68% price change this week, while PSX (@Oil Refining/Marketing) price change was -3.87% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Oil Refining/Marketing industry was -5.32%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -1.67%, and the average quarterly price growth was +22.67%.
Reported Earning Dates
PBF is expected to report earnings on Feb 18, 2027.
PSX is expected to report earnings on Feb 04, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Oil Refining/Marketing (-5.32% weekly)The Oil Refining/Marketing segment includes companies that refine crude oil into a number of petroleum products, including gasoline, jet fuel and diesel, and then sell the usable products to the end users. These companies are involved in what’s called downstream operations in the oil business. They also engage in the marketing and distribution of crude oil and natural gas products. In other words, the downstream oil and gas business is focused on post-production processes of crude oil and natural gas. When oil prices slump, downstream businesses are hurt less or in some cases even benefit, since their purchase cost of crude oil goes down. Some of the biggest U.S. oil refining/marketing companies include Phillips 66, Marathon Petroleum Corporation and Valero Energy Corp.
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PBF and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PBF has been closely correlated with VLO. These tickers have moved in lockstep 79% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PBF jumps, then VLO could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To PBF | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| PBF | 100% | +3.08% | ||
| VLO - PBF | 79% Closely correlated | -1.01% | ||
| DINO - PBF | 78% Closely correlated | -0.06% | ||
| DK - PBF | 77% Closely correlated | +1.14% | ||
| PSX - PBF | 74% Closely correlated | -0.05% | ||
| PARR - PBF | 74% Closely correlated | -0.65% | ||
More | ||||
PSX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, PSX has been closely correlated with MPC. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if PSX jumps, then MPC could also see price increases.
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| JETS | 27.49 | 0.52 | +1.93% |
| U.S. Global Jets ETF (JETS) | |||
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| iShares MSCI BIC ETF (BKF) | |||
| IVEP | 24.50 | 0.14 | +0.56% |
| Dan IVES Wedbush AI Power & Infrastructure ETF (IVEP) | |||
| IWV | 436.36 | -1.14 | -0.26% |
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