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DAL vs UAL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Delta Air Lines (DAL) vs. United Airlines Holdings (UAL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both DAL and UAL are full-service U.S. network carriers contending with a sharp, roughly $6 billion surge in annual fuel costs that is compressing margins across the airline sector.
- DAL has held a positive year-to-date return but recently missed quarterly earnings expectations and lowered its full-year profit forecast, cooling its momentum.
- UAL trades at a lower earnings multiple and carries a stronger analyst consensus, but its shares have slipped below key moving averages and its year-to-date return is negative.
- Both airlines continue to report robust premium and loyalty revenue, signaling resilient consumer travel demand despite rising costs.
- On trend consistency and stability, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward DAL, while acknowledging UAL's valuation discount as a counterweight.
Introduction
Investors weighing exposure to the airline industry frequently compare Delta Air Lines and United Airlines Holdings, two of the largest full-service carriers in the United States. Both companies operate extensive domestic and international networks, generate significant premium-travel revenue, and are highly sensitive to the same macro variables—most notably jet fuel prices and consumer travel demand. This stock comparison is especially relevant for traders and long-term investors seeking to understand how relative performance and market positioning diverge between two otherwise similar businesses. By examining recent performance, business models, and risk factors, readers can better assess which name offers a more compelling risk-reward profile in the current environment.
DAL Overview and Recent Performance
Delta Air Lines, headquartered in Atlanta, is the world's largest carrier by revenue and a leader in premium and loyalty-driven travel. In its most recent quarterly report, the company posted adjusted revenue growth of roughly 16% year over year, but its adjusted earnings per share (EPS) of $1.72 came in slightly below consensus estimates, marking its first earnings miss in several quarters. The shortfall was driven largely by fuel expenses, which climbed more than 60% year over year as the average fuel price per gallon rose sharply.
In response, management reduced its full-year EPS guidance to a range of $5.10 to $5.60, down from a prior $6.50 to $7.50, while forecasting roughly 20% revenue growth for the following quarter. The company estimates it will absorb about $6 billion in higher fuel costs for the year. Despite the guidance cut, demand indicators remain firm, with premium revenue growing at a double-digit rate. Shares have retreated from a July record high and now sit roughly 14% below that peak, though the stock has retained a meaningful year-to-date gain.
UAL Overview and Recent Performance
United Airlines Holdings, based in Chicago, operates a broad global network with a particular emphasis on international and premium travel. In its most recent earnings release, the carrier reported adjusted EPS that exceeded expectations and revenue growth of roughly 16%, supported by strength in premium cabins, corporate travel, and its MileagePlus loyalty program. United also took delivery of its first Airbus A321XLR aircraft, a milestone tied to its long-running fleet modernization and "upgauging" strategy.
Like Delta, United has been navigating a substantial fuel-cost headwind of nearly $6 billion for the year. The company raised the low end of its full-year EPS guidance to a $9 to $11 range but guided third-quarter EPS below the consensus midpoint at the time. United's shares have been choppier than Delta's in recent weeks, trading below their 50-day and 200-day moving averages and down roughly 14% over the trailing three months, with a negative year-to-date return. Analyst coverage remains broadly constructive, with an average price target well above the current share price.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
While Delta and United share a sector and many demand drivers, their market positioning differs in meaningful ways. Delta's model emphasizes premium products, a deep partnership with American Express, and a proprietary refinery that partially hedges fuel exposure. United, by contrast, has leaned more heavily on international expansion and fleet upgauging, which can magnify both upside and cost sensitivity.
On recent momentum, DAL has shown comparatively steadier behavior, maintaining a positive year-to-date return even after a pullback, whereas UAL has experienced a sharper retracement and now trades below key technical levels. On valuation, however, UAL appears less expensive, with a forward price-to-earnings ratio near the single digits versus a mid-teens multiple for DAL. Both companies face concentrated risk from fuel prices and potential demand softening, though United's higher debt load and larger international exposure can introduce additional volatility in periods of geopolitical tension.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor DAL at present. Delta's steadier price action, positive year-to-date performance, and shallower drawdown from recent highs suggest more constructive trend characteristics than United's below-average technical posture. At the same time, UAL's lower valuation and stronger analyst price targets present a meaningful counterweight, meaning the AI's preference is a matter of probability rather than certainty. The relative balance could shift quickly if fuel costs stabilize or if United's upcoming earnings report resets expectations.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
Delta Air Lines, Inc. (DAL) and United Airlines Holdings, Inc. (UAL) are two of the largest commercial airline companies in the world. Delta is larger, with an enterprise value of about $45B, while UAL has an EV of about $34B. Needless to say, 2020 was an extremely difficult year for airlines. UAL along cut 57% of its scheduled flight capacity compared to 2019 in response to the pandemic. They received support from the government and attempted to generate liquidity and perserve it as much as possible. Delta has taken some efforts to reduce their exposure to the cyclical nature of the industry, through partnerships with American Express and by investing in their repairs segment, which generates revenue from repairs to aircraft engines. UAL has engaged in similar diversification efforts, including partnerships with JP Morgan Chase and maintenance and repairs activities. UAL raise approximately $2B in 2020 through the issuance of additional shares.
DAL's Stochastic Oscillator is sitting in oversold zone for 7 days
The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an uptrend is expected.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where DAL's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 27 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Following a +4.07% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DAL advanced for three days, in 224 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
DAL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 249 of 322 cases where DAL Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 77%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 08, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on DAL as a result. In 45 of 72 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for DAL turned negative on October 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 46 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 28 of the 46 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 61%.
DAL moved below its 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DAL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 69%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 10 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. DAL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 53 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.341) is normal, around the industry mean (1.838). P/E Ratio (12.796) is within average values for comparable stocks, (5.620). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.193) is also within normal values, averaging (2.252). Dividend Yield (0.011) settles around the average of (0.026) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.749) is also within normal values, averaging (0.529).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
UAL's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for UAL entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 156 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 119 of the 156 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on UAL as a result. In 60 of 85 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for UAL turned negative on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 45 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 32 of the 45 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 71%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where UAL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where UAL's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 22 of 28 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 8 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +6.35% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where UAL advanced for three days, in 235 of 312 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
UAL may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 17 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. UAL’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 62 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.976) is normal, around the industry mean (1.838). P/E Ratio (9.423) is within average values for comparable stocks, (5.620). UAL's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (6.503) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.252). UAL's Dividend Yield (0.085) is considerably higher than the industry average of (0.026). P/S Ratio (0.552) is also within normal values, averaging (0.529).
DAL | UAL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 75 | 78 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 53 Fair valued | 62 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 42 | 47 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 46 | 42 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 60 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 10 | 48 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 17 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
DAL's Valuation (53) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as UAL (62). This means that DAL’s stock grew similarly to UAL’s over the last 12 months.
DAL's Profit vs Risk Rating (42) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as UAL (47). This means that DAL’s stock grew similarly to UAL’s over the last 12 months.
UAL's SMR Rating (42) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as DAL (46). This means that UAL’s stock grew similarly to DAL’s over the last 12 months.
DAL's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Airlines industry is in the same range as UAL (60). This means that DAL’s stock grew similarly to UAL’s over the last 12 months.
DAL's P/E Growth Rating (10) in the Airlines industry is somewhat better than the same rating for UAL (48). This means that DAL’s stock grew somewhat faster than UAL’s over the last 12 months.
| DAL | UAL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 79% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 83% | 1 day ago 77% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 76% | 1 day ago 81% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 72% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 73% | 1 day ago 75% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 75% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 77% | 1 day ago 76% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DAL’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while UAL’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- DAL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- UAL’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DAL’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while UAL’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DAL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- UAL’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
DAL (@Airlines) experienced а +1.62% price change this week, while UAL (@Airlines) price change was +2.74% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Airlines industry was +0.23%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -8.54%, and the average quarterly price growth was -5.96%.
Reported Earning Dates
DAL is expected to report earnings on Jan 08, 2027.
UAL is expected to report earnings on Jan 20, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Airlines (+0.23% weekly)Airlines industry comprises passenger air transportation, including scheduled and non-scheduled routes. This can include charter airlines, as well as regular commuter ones. Discount pricing and the rise of low-cost carriers over recent decades have expanded the industry by making its services accessible to a much larger global population, compared to the older days when airline travel was a relative luxury for many people in the world. Delta Air Lines Inc., Southwest Airlines Co and United Continental Holdings, Inc. are some of the airlines with the largest stock market capitalizations in the U.S.
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DAL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DAL has been closely correlated with UAL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DAL jumps, then UAL could also see price increases.
UAL and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, UAL has been closely correlated with AAL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 83% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if UAL jumps, then AAL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To UAL | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| UAL | 100% | +3.99% | ||
| AAL - UAL | 83% Closely correlated | +1.03% | ||
| ALGT - UAL | 76% Closely correlated | +1.48% | ||
| SKYW - UAL | 74% Closely correlated | +2.06% | ||
| JBLU - UAL | 68% Closely correlated | +0.69% | ||
| ULCC - UAL | 66% Loosely correlated | +2.86% | ||
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