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DECK vs ONON
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) vs. On Holding AG (ONON) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- DECK owns two dominant footwear franchises, HOKA and UGG, and carries a clean, cash-rich balance sheet with no debt, but its growth has moderated as HOKA matures.
- ONON is a faster-growing premium sportswear brand expanding into apparel, soccer, and golf, yet it trades at a significantly higher valuation multiple.
- DECK offers a value-oriented profile with a low forward price-to-earnings (P/E) multiple after a sharp de-rating, while ONON is priced for sustained high growth.
- Both companies are expanding direct-to-consumer (DTC) sales and international reach, but their risk profiles and momentum differ meaningfully.
- Recent sentiment has been mixed for both names, with DECK rebuilding momentum after a longer pullback and ONON volatile around guidance and category-expansion headlines.
Introduction
Deckers Outdoor Corporation (DECK) and On Holding AG (ONON) are two of the most closely watched names in premium footwear and sportswear. Although both compete for the same consumer dollar, they represent very different investment profiles: a mature, profitable multi-brand operator versus a fast-scaling, premium-priced growth story. This stock comparison is relevant for investors and traders weighing relative performance, market positioning, and the trade-off between valuation and growth in a promotional retail environment. Understanding how these two companies differ in business model, growth drivers, and momentum can help clarify which risk-and-reward profile better fits a given strategy.
DECK Overview and Recent Performance
Deckers Outdoor Corporation, the parent of HOKA, UGG, and Teva, is a global leader in performance and lifestyle footwear. In its most recent fiscal year, revenue rose roughly 10% to a record near $5.5 billion, driven by HOKA and UGG, while diluted earnings per share (EPS) climbed to a record. HOKA, its fastest-growing brand, continues to gain traction through new product cycles and international expansion, while UGG remains a durable, high-margin lifestyle franchise.
Recent market activity has been more cautious. The stock has de-rated sharply from prior highs, and its forward P/E multiple has compressed to a level well below its five-year average, as investors debate whether HOKA's slowing growth can still support a premium. A federal jury decision related to a UGG design patent added legal headline risk, while management has flagged tariff and freight cost pressures. Against this backdrop, DECK has shown signs of rebuilding near-term momentum, supported by a balance sheet with roughly $1.9 billion in cash, no debt, and an expanded share repurchase authorization.
ONON Overview and Recent Performance
On Holding AG, the Swiss premium running and sportswear brand founded in the Swiss Alps, has built a global following around its CloudTec and LightSpray technologies and high-profile athlete partnerships, including Roger Federer and Kylian Mbappé. The company is extending beyond running into sneakers, apparel, soccer, and golf, and has laid out long-term targets to reach roughly CHF 5.6 billion in net sales by 2029, with gross margin above 65% and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margin above 22%.
Recent weeks have brought both catalysts and volatility. The company's direct-to-consumer channel has grown strongly, Asia-Pacific momentum has been standout, and it authorized its first-ever share buyback. However, a recent quarterly revenue shortfall versus consensus, softer U.S. wholesale trends, and a lowered full-year top-line outlook have pressured sentiment. ONON shares remain well below their highs, and the stock continues to trade at a premium valuation that leaves limited room for execution missteps.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between the two is the growth-versus-value trade-off. ONON is growing faster, with high-teens-to-low-20s constant-currency sales growth, a rising gross margin, and new category optionality, but it commands a forward P/E multiple roughly double that of DECK. DECK, by contrast, is a lower-multiple, cash-generative compounder whose growth has decelerated to high-single-to-low-double digits as HOKA matures.
Their business models also differ. DECK leans on two established brands plus a large wholesale network, while ONON is a single premium brand increasingly shifting toward DTC and premium-priced positioning. Risk profiles diverge as well: DECK faces concentration risk in HOKA and UGG, tariff exposure, and legal headline risk, while ONON faces execution risk in new categories, U.S. wholesale softness, and the burden of defending a premium valuation.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward DECK in the current environment. Its de-rated valuation, debt-free balance sheet, and durable two-brand cash generation offer a more stable risk-adjusted profile, with the potential for sentiment to improve as HOKA's growth path becomes clearer. ONON presents a more compelling long-term growth narrative, but its premium multiple and recent revenue volatility introduce greater uncertainty in the near term. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive and reflects the relative positioning of the two stocks today.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DECK is a Hold and ONON is a StrongBuy.
DECK in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026
DECK moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 34 of 42 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where DECK's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 24 of 30 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 80%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 06, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on DECK as a result. In 58 of 84 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for DECK just turned positive on September 21, 2026. Looking at past instances where DECK's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
The 10-day moving average for DECK crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 17 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Following a +1.94% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DECK advanced for three days, in 220 of 308 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 9 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DECK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
DECK broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for DECK entered a downward trend on October 09, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. DECK’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 59 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: DECK's P/B Ratio (5.058) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.982). P/E Ratio (12.126) is within average values for comparable stocks, (12.714). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.959) is also within normal values, averaging (0.949). DECK has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.022). P/S Ratio (2.017) is also within normal values, averaging (1.252).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 75 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 92 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. DECK’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock worse than average.
ONON in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026
ONON moved above its 50-day moving average on October 05, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 39 of 51 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 76%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ONON as a result. In 66 of 89 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
The 10-day moving average for ONON crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 18 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Following a +1.93% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ONON advanced for three days, in 208 of 283 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 114 of 192 cases where ONON Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 59%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ONON moved out of overbought territory on October 21, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 32 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 25 of the 32 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 78%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 14 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ONON declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 79%.
ONON broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 40 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 42 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ONON’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 64 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ONON's P/B Ratio (5.983) is slightly higher than the industry average of (2.982). ONON has a moderately high P/E Ratio (28.517) as compared to the industry average of (12.714). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.478) is also within normal values, averaging (0.949). ONON has a moderately low Dividend Yield (0.000) as compared to the industry average of (0.022). ONON's P/S Ratio (4.439) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.252).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 93 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. ONON’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 91, placing this stock worse than average.
DECK | ||
|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 22 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 59 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 92 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 25 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 58 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 64 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
| DECK | ONON | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 80% | 2 days ago 78% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 83% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 74% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 72% | N/A |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 81% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 73% | 2 days ago 72% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 71% | 3 days ago 73% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 71% | 7 days ago 79% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 81% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 59% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DECK’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while ONON’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- DECK’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- ONON’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DECK’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ONON’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DECK’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- ONON’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
DECK (@Wholesale Distributors) experienced а +3.22% price change this week, while ONON (@Wholesale Distributors) price change was -3.61% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Wholesale Distributors industry was -3.97%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +3.37%, and the average quarterly price growth was +5.03%.
Reported Earning Dates
DECK is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
ONON is expected to report earnings on Nov 11, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Wholesale Distributors (-3.97% weekly)Companies in this industry handle the wholesale shipments for the manufacturer of a product. They have warehouses and distribution centers, and they ship products directly to the retailer. Digitization, increasing competition, emerging customer demand, and product innovation are some of shifts that the industry has been facing in recent times – something that is potentially creating needs/opportunities for business model revisions or transformations. Data, analytics, and technology are becoming increasingly important for whole distributors in anticipating and analyzing consumer needs, and therefore planning their business strategies accordingly. Fastenal Company, W.W. Grainger, Inc., Genuine Parts Company and Pool Corporation are some of the largest names in the business.
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DECK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DECK has been loosely correlated with ONON. These tickers have moved in lockstep 51% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if DECK jumps, then ONON could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To DECK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| DECK | 100% | -2.15% | ||
| ONON - DECK | 51% Loosely correlated | -3.39% | ||
| KTB - DECK | 49% Loosely correlated | +0.07% | ||
| BIRK - DECK | 49% Loosely correlated | -1.40% | ||
| CAL - DECK | 48% Loosely correlated | -1.78% | ||
| PVH - DECK | 48% Loosely correlated | -3.36% | ||
More | ||||
ONON and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ONON has been loosely correlated with RL. These tickers have moved in lockstep 62% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if ONON jumps, then RL could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To ONON | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ONON | 100% | -3.39% | ||
| RL - ONON | 62% Loosely correlated | +0.59% | ||
| VFC - ONON | 53% Loosely correlated | -1.78% | ||
| DECK - ONON | 51% Loosely correlated | -2.15% | ||
| GIL - ONON | 49% Loosely correlated | -1.47% | ||
| UA - ONON | 48% Loosely correlated | -3.99% | ||
More | ||||
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