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DHI vs HOV
Which Stock Would AI Choose? D.R. Horton (DHI) vs. Hovnanian Enterprises (HOV) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- DHI is the largest U.S. homebuilder by volume and delivers far greater scale, profitability, and free cash flow than HOV.
- HOV carries a much higher beta, thinner profit margins, and greater leverage, making it more volatile and sensitive to mortgage-rate swings.
- Both builders are navigating elevated mortgage rates and affordability pressure, but DHI remains solidly profitable while HOV has swung near break-even in recent quarters.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: The AI favors DHI based on trend consistency, balance-sheet stability, and relative market positioning.
- For more context, explore DHI Major News and DHI Today's Price Move, along with HOV Major News and HOV Today's Price Move.
- To see which AI strategies are currently favored across the market, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Investors comparing homebuilders often weigh scale and stability against value and turnaround potential. DHI (D.R. Horton) and HOV (Hovnanian Enterprises) occupy very different positions within the same industry. D.R. Horton is the country's largest homebuilder by volume, while Hovnanian is a much smaller, higher-leverage operator. This stock comparison is relevant for traders assessing relative performance during a period of elevated mortgage rates and softening affordability, and for investors deciding whether a large-cap, cash-generating leader or a small-cap cyclical name better fits their risk tolerance and market positioning.
DHI Overview and Recent Performance
D.R. Horton, headquartered in Arlington, Texas, builds single-family homes across roughly 126 markets in 36 states and operates a complementary mortgage and title-services business. As the industry's scale leader, DHI generates tens of billions of dollars in annual revenue and remains consistently profitable. In recent weeks, however, the stock has reflected sector-wide affordability concerns. Elevated mortgage rates have pressured new-home demand, and management has noted a rise in cancellation rates and higher sales incentives as it trims starts to align inventory with demand. Despite these headwinds, the company continues to produce substantial operating cash flow, returns capital to shareholders through buybacks and dividends, and maintains a healthy balance sheet. Its 52-week range reflects a meaningful pullback from prior highs, yet its relative earnings consistency and scale differentiate it from smaller peers.
HOV Overview and Recent Performance
Hovnanian Enterprises, based in Matawan, New Jersey, designs, constructs, and sells single-family and attached homes for entry-level through luxury buyers. As a much smaller operator, HOV is considerably more sensitive to shifts in demand and interest rates. Recent market activity has been marked by revenue declines and pressure on earnings; the company has swung to near break-even or small losses in recent quarters as incentives and mortgage-rate buydowns compress margins. Management has emphasized a gradual gross-margin recovery and disciplined land underwriting, which has supported sentiment at times, but higher leverage and a negative levered free cash flow position weigh on the profile. The stock's elevated beta and wide trading range underscore its volatility relative to larger homebuilders.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron maintains a large library of AI-powered trading bots covering thousands of tickers, each with its own strategy, timeframe, performance record, and universe of securities. Because market conditions change constantly, only a curated selection of the best-performing and most suitable bots is featured on the Trending AI Robots page. These bots span diverse trading styles, from short-term momentum and swing strategies to longer-horizon trend-following approaches, allowing traders to match a bot's behavior to their own objectives. Reviewing this section can help investors see which automated strategies are currently positioned for the evolving homebuilder and broader market environment. Explore Trending AI Robots to evaluate the strategies attracting attention right now.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies share the same cyclical sector but diverge sharply on fundamentals. DHI benefits from national scale, purchasing power, a vertically integrated mortgage segment, and a disciplined land strategy that supports steadier margins and cash generation. HOV relies more heavily on a land-light model and is working through a multi-quarter margin rebuild, leaving it more exposed to incentive costs and slower community growth. On risk, DHI's lower beta and stronger balance sheet contrast with HOV's higher leverage and more volatile equity. In terms of momentum, both have faced affordability-driven pressure, but DHI's relative stability versus HOV's wider swings illustrates the trade-off between a large-cap leader and a small-cap cyclical. Sector exposure is identical, yet their market positioning and resilience are materially different.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, earnings stability, balance-sheet strength, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor DHI over HOV in the current environment. D.R. Horton's scale, continued profitability, dividend, and lower volatility provide a more consistent and defensible trend profile, whereas Hovnanian's higher leverage, thin margins, and greater sensitivity to mortgage rates introduce more variability. While a margin turnaround at HOV could eventually shift relative momentum, the AI's probabilistic assessment currently leans toward the more stable, cash-generating leader rather than the higher-beta turnaround candidate.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DHI is a Buy and HOV is a StrongBuy.
DHI in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026
DHI moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 34 of 43 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator is in the oversold zone. Keep an eye out for a move up in the foreseeable future.
The 10-day moving average for DHI crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Following a +8.54% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DHI advanced for three days, in 192 of 300 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 157 of 233 cases where DHI Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 67%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 12, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on DHI as a result. In 58 of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for DHI turned negative on November 12, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 30 of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 59%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DHI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
DHI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. DHI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 78 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.788) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (14.475) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.171) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.205) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
HOV's RSI Indicator ascending out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for HOV moved out of oversold territory on October 20, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 25 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 21 of the 25 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 84%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 1 day, which means it's wise to expect a price bounce in the near future.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for HOV just turned positive on October 26, 2026. Looking at past instances where HOV's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 39 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 10, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on HOV as a result. In 69 of 92 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
The 50-day moving average for HOV moved below the 200-day moving average on October 19, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HOV declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 82%.
HOV broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for HOV entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 1 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating fairly steady price growth. HOV’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 74 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.885) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). HOV's P/E Ratio (96.629) is considerably higher than the industry average of (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.020) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.280) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 89 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 94 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HOV’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
DHI | HOV | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 74 | 59 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 78 Overvalued | 74 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 53 | 94 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 62 | 89 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 62 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 25 | 1 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HOV's Valuation (74) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as DHI (78). This means that HOV’s stock grew similarly to DHI’s over the last 12 months.
DHI's Profit vs Risk Rating (53) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HOV (94). This means that DHI’s stock grew somewhat faster than HOV’s over the last 12 months.
DHI's SMR Rating (62) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as HOV (89). This means that DHI’s stock grew similarly to HOV’s over the last 12 months.
DHI's Price Growth Rating (47) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as HOV (62). This means that DHI’s stock grew similarly to HOV’s over the last 12 months.
HOV's P/E Growth Rating (1) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as DHI (25). This means that HOV’s stock grew similarly to DHI’s over the last 12 months.
| DHI | HOV | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 84% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 79% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 75% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 59% | 2 days ago 78% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 68% | 2 days ago 79% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 84% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 64% | N/A |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 82% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 75% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 81% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DHI’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while HOV’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- DHI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- HOV’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DHI’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while HOV’s TA Score has 3 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DHI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- HOV’s TA Score: 3 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
DHI (@Homebuilding) experienced а -8.05% price change this week, while HOV (@Homebuilding) price change was -9.06% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -3.55%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +7.43%, and the average quarterly price growth was +8.79%.
Reported Earning Dates
DHI is expected to report earnings on Jan 26, 2027.
HOV is expected to report earnings on Dec 03, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-3.55% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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DHI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, DHI has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 93% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if DHI jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.
HOV and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HOV has been closely correlated with LGIH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 75% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if HOV jumps, then LGIH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To HOV | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOV | 100% | -2.73% | ||
| LGIH - HOV | 75% Closely correlated | -3.56% | ||
| MTH - HOV | 73% Closely correlated | -2.60% | ||
| GRBK - HOV | 72% Closely correlated | -2.71% | ||
| MHO - HOV | 72% Closely correlated | -1.42% | ||
| DHI - HOV | 72% Closely correlated | -1.72% | ||
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