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DHI vs PHM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? D.R. Horton (DHI) vs. PulteGroup (PHM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- DHI (D.R. Horton) is the largest U.S. homebuilder by volume, with broad national scale but lower average selling prices and thinner gross margins.
- PHM (PulteGroup) operates a more diversified brand and buyer base, historically delivering higher gross margins and best-in-class returns on investment.
- Both companies face similar macro headwinds: elevated affordability pressure, higher sales incentives, and margin compression tied to mortgage rates and consumer sentiment.
- DHI leans on scale, affordable product, and an asset-light lot strategy, while PHM emphasizes margin discipline, a balanced buyer mix, and a net-cash balance sheet.
- Order trends have been modestly positive for both, but margin deterioration remains the central theme across the homebuilding sector.
Introduction
Investors evaluating the U.S. homebuilding sector frequently compare DHI and PHM, two of the country's largest publicly traded builders with sharply different operating models. This stock comparison is relevant to traders seeking relative performance signals as well as longer-term investors assessing market positioning amid affordability-driven demand softness. D.R. Horton competes on national scale and affordable price points, while PulteGroup differentiates through a diversified brand portfolio and disciplined margin management. Understanding how these two companies navigate the same housing cycle—but with different strategies—can help clarify which stock currently offers more favorable risk-adjusted positioning.
DHI Overview and Recent Performance
DHI, D.R. Horton, Inc., branded "America's Builder," has been the largest U.S. homebuilder by volume since 2002, operating across 126 markets in 36 states. Its model emphasizes entry-level and affordable homes, supported by an asset-light land strategy that sources lots through its Forestar subsidiary and third parties. In recent quarters, the company has contended with affordability constraints and cautious buyer sentiment, prompting management to sustain elevated sales incentives such as mortgage rate buydowns. Revenue and earnings per share (EPS, a company's profit divided by its outstanding shares) have declined year over year, and homebuilding pre-tax margins have compressed. Despite this, DHI retains strong liquidity of roughly $6.6 billion, raised its quarterly dividend by 13%, and continues repurchasing shares. Net sales orders have grown modestly, and the company has improved cycle times while trimming unsold completed inventory, signaling operational resilience even as margins remain under pressure.
PHM Overview and Recent Performance
PHM, PulteGroup, Inc., is an Atlanta-based homebuilder operating in 47 markets through a brand portfolio that includes Centex, Pulte Homes, Del Webb, DiVosta Homes, and John Wieland Homes and Neighborhoods. This structure supports a balanced buyer mix—roughly 38% first-time, 40% move-up, and 22% active-adult—that has historically helped offset regional demand swings. In recent quarters, PulteGroup has also faced higher incentives and cost pressures, and its home sale gross margin narrowed as it recorded land impairment charges. Home sale revenues and average selling price (ASP, the typical price of a home sold) dipped year over year, while selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) expenses rose partly due to the absence of prior-year insurance benefits. On the positive side, net new orders increased, and the company maintained a conservative balance sheet with a net-cash position, a debt-to-capital ratio near 11%, and continued share repurchases. PulteGroup has also announced the divestiture of certain off-site manufacturing assets to refocus on core homebuilding.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most visible contrast between these two builders is scale versus margin quality. DHI closes a far larger number of homes annually and carries a substantially larger market capitalization, giving it significant purchasing power and geographic breadth. However, its focus on affordability translates to a lower ASP and thinner gross margins. PHM generates fewer closings but commands higher average price points and historically superior gross margins, supported by its active-adult Del Webb communities and disciplined, return-focused underwriting. Both companies use option-based lot strategies to limit capital intensity, and both rely on mortgage-rate-sensitive first-time buyers. On the balance sheet, PHM's net-cash position stands out, while DHI counters with greater scale and a diversified ancillary platform spanning rental, lot development, and financial services. In terms of market sentiment, both stocks have been pressured by margin concerns, though PHM has pointed to a stronger long-term track record of total shareholder returns among homebuilders.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as margin stability, balance-sheet strength, buyer diversification, and relative momentum, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward PHM as the more favorably positioned name in the current environment. PulteGroup's higher gross margins, net-cash balance sheet, and more resilient active-adult demand provide a steadier foundation amid affordability headwinds. That said, DHI's scale, liquidity, and improving operational efficiency keep it competitive, particularly if entry-level demand strengthens on lower mortgage rates. This is a probabilistic assessment rather than a definitive forecast; relative positioning could shift as housing demand and interest-rate conditions evolve.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DHI is a Hold and PHM is a StrongBuy.
DHI's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for DHI entered a downward trend on October 21, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 196 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 129 of the 196 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 66%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DHI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 63%.
DHI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on DHI as a result. In 55 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for DHI just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where DHI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
DHI moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for DHI crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 27, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 13 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. DHI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 53 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 77 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.679) is normal, around the industry mean (1.749). P/E Ratio (13.593) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.135). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.171) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.205) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
PHM's RSI Oscillator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Oscillator for PHM moved out of oversold territory on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 16 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 13 of the 16 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on PHM as a result. In 65 of 92 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for PHM just turned positive on October 16, 2026. Looking at past instances where PHM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
PHM moved above its 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +0.36% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where PHM advanced for three days, in 212 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 70%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The 50-day moving average for PHM moved below the 200-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where PHM declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
PHM broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for PHM entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 34 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 55 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. PHM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 57 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 73 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.752) is normal, around the industry mean (1.749). P/E Ratio (12.141) is within average values for comparable stocks, (9.135). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.995) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.393) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
DHI | PHM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 61 | 29 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 77 Overvalued | 73 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 53 | 34 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 62 | 57 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 52 | 55 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 28 | 15 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
PHM's Valuation (73) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as DHI (77). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to DHI’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's Profit vs Risk Rating (34) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as DHI (53). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to DHI’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's SMR Rating (57) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as DHI (62). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to DHI’s over the last 12 months.
DHI's Price Growth Rating (52) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as PHM (55). This means that DHI’s stock grew similarly to PHM’s over the last 12 months.
PHM's P/E Growth Rating (15) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as DHI (28). This means that PHM’s stock grew similarly to DHI’s over the last 12 months.
| DHI | PHM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 2 days ago 81% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 66% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 65% | 2 days ago 71% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 64% | 2 days ago 66% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 69% | 2 days ago 74% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 73% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 70% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 63% | 18 days ago 59% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 61% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 66% | 2 days ago 66% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DHI’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while PHM’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- DHI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- PHM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DHI’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while PHM’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DHI’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 4 bearish.
- PHM’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
DHI (@Homebuilding) experienced а +2.89% price change this week, while PHM (@Homebuilding) price change was +6.04% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -1.77%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -4.21%, and the average quarterly price growth was -0.84%.
Reported Earning Dates
DHI is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
PHM is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-1.77% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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