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DHI vs GRBK
Which Stock Would AI Choose? D.R. Horton (DHI) vs. Green Brick Partners (GRBK) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- DHI is the largest U.S. homebuilder by volume, while GRBK is a smaller, regionally focused builder concentrated in Texas, Georgia, and Florida.
- GRBK posts industry-leading homebuilding gross margins near 30%, roughly double DHI's entry-level-focused margin profile.
- GRBK keeps its cancellation rate near 8%, among the lowest of public peers, versus a roughly 20% rate at DHI.
- DHI offers scale, diversification, and shareholder returns through dividends and buybacks, but has trimmed fiscal 2026 guidance.
- Relative performance and market positioning favor GRBK on margins and order momentum, while DHI holds advantages in breadth and capital returns.
Introduction
Both DHI (D.R. Horton, Inc.) and GRBK (Green Brick Partners, Inc.) operate in U.S. residential homebuilding, yet they represent very different business models within the same sector. This stock comparison is relevant for traders and investors weighing national scale and dividend support against regional focus and premium profitability. D.R. Horton, the largest homebuilder in the United States, pursues volume across dozens of states and an entry-level product line, while Green Brick Partners concentrates on infill and infill-adjacent communities in select high-demand submarkets. Understanding how these two names differ in growth drivers, margins, risk exposure, and recent momentum helps clarify which profile may better suit current market conditions.
DHI Overview and Recent Performance
D.R. Horton, headquartered in Arlington, Texas, has been the largest U.S. homebuilder by volume since 2002, with operations across roughly 126 markets in 36 states and a product range spanning entry-level, move-up, and luxury homes. The company also operates rental, lot-development (Forestar), and financial-services segments, giving it a diversified revenue base. In recent market activity, DHI has faced margin pressure and softer demand even as order volumes held up. Management reported rising sales incentives, a home sales gross margin near 20.7%, and a cancellation rate that climbed to about 20% in recent quarters. Consequently, the company lowered its fiscal 2026 consolidated revenue and home-closing guidance, reflecting affordability constraints and cautious buyer sentiment. Offsetting these pressures, DHI continues to generate strong cash flow, repurchase shares, and pay a quarterly dividend, supported by substantial liquidity and low leverage.
GRBK Overview and Recent Performance
Green Brick Partners, based in Plano, Texas, is a diversified homebuilder and land developer focused on large, self-developed master-planned communities, primarily in Texas with additional exposure to Atlanta and Florida. Its strategy emphasizes infill and infill-adjacent locations, where competition is typically lower and land economics are favorable. In recent weeks, GRBK has delivered homebuilding gross margins near 29.8%, which management describes as the highest among public homebuilding peers, and maintained a cancellation rate around 7.8%, among the lowest in the industry. Net new home orders rose 19% year over year in its most recent quarter, supported by its more affordable Trophy Signature Homes brand, while book value per share increased 16% year over year. The company operates with a low-leverage balance sheet, recently carrying net homebuilding debt-to-total capital near 6%, and continues to build out an integrated mortgage and title platform.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two builders is scale versus profitability. DHI competes on national reach, volume, and an integrated platform that includes mortgage, title, rental, and lot-development businesses; this diversification provides stability but leaves it more exposed to entry-level affordability and incentive-driven pricing. GRBK, by contrast, runs a concentrated, land-focused model that generates materially higher gross margins and lower cancellation rates, but it is smaller, geographically concentrated, and more volatile, with a higher beta and no dividend. On growth drivers, GRBK's recent order growth and self-developed lot pipeline suggest stronger near-term demand momentum, whereas DHI's scale and buyback-heavy capital allocation offer broader sector exposure. Risk profiles differ accordingly: DHI faces margin and cancellation headwinds across many markets, while GRBK carries regional concentration risk in Texas and elevated sensitivity to mortgage-rate shifts.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward GRBK in the current environment. The stock's consistency in generating industry-leading gross margins, its unusually low cancellation rate, a 19% increase in net orders, and a low-leverage balance sheet indicate stronger relative trend stability and healthier operating momentum than DHI, which is contending with compressed margins, elevated cancellations, and trimmed guidance. That said, DHI's scale, diversification, and disciplined capital returns keep it a more defensive candidate with broader sector exposure. The verdict is probabilistic rather than definitive: GRBK's momentum and margin profile currently appear more favorable, while DHI's stability and shareholder returns may appeal to more conservative positioning.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is DHI is a Buy and GRBK is a Buy.
DHI in upward trend: price may jump up because it broke its lower Bollinger Band on October 05, 2026
DHI may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 20 of 28 cases where DHI's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 49 of 69 cases where DHI's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 71%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on DHI as a result. In 59 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for DHI just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where DHI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Following a +0.96% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where DHI advanced for three days, in 197 of 301 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where DHI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Aroon Indicator for DHI entered a downward trend on October 20, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. DHI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 62 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 76 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.646) is normal, around the industry mean (1.621). P/E Ratio (13.324) is within average values for comparable stocks, (7.857). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.171) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.013) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.205) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
GRBK's RSI Indicator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for GRBK moved out of oversold territory on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 17 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 15 of the 17 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 88%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 9 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +0.83% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where GRBK advanced for three days, in 227 of 305 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 74%.
GRBK may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 05, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on GRBK as a result. In 56 of 78 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 72%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for GRBK turned negative on October 07, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 29 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 60%.
The 50-day moving average for GRBK moved below the 200-day moving average on October 07, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where GRBK declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Aroon Indicator for GRBK entered a downward trend on October 20, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 32 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 45 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.383) is normal, around the industry mean (1.621). P/E Ratio (9.308) is within average values for comparable stocks, (7.857). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.110) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.000) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.421) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 72 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating slightly worse than average price growth. GRBK’s price grows at a lower rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
DHI | GRBK | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 75 | 66 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 76 Overvalued | 45 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 58 | 36 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 62 | 54 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 60 | 72 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 33 | 32 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
GRBK's Valuation (45) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as DHI (76). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to DHI’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's Profit vs Risk Rating (36) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as DHI (58). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to DHI’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's SMR Rating (54) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as DHI (62). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to DHI’s over the last 12 months.
DHI's Price Growth Rating (60) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as GRBK (72). This means that DHI’s stock grew similarly to GRBK’s over the last 12 months.
GRBK's P/E Growth Rating (32) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as DHI (33). This means that GRBK’s stock grew similarly to DHI’s over the last 12 months.
| DHI | GRBK | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | N/A | 1 day ago 88% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 70% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 72% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 75% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 27 days ago 65% | 20 days ago 74% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 62% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 77% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 65% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
DHI’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while GRBK’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- DHI’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- GRBK’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
DHI’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while GRBK’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- DHI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 2 bearish.
- GRBK’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
DHI (@Homebuilding) experienced а +3.48% price change this week, while GRBK (@Homebuilding) price change was +0.45% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was +5.71%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -5.41%, and the average quarterly price growth was -6.06%.
Reported Earning Dates
DHI is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
GRBK is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (+5.71% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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GRBK and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, GRBK has been closely correlated with MTH. These tickers have moved in lockstep 86% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if GRBK jumps, then MTH could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To GRBK | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| GRBK | 100% | +2.55% | ||
| MTH - GRBK | 86% Closely correlated | +3.17% | ||
| PHM - GRBK | 86% Closely correlated | +3.27% | ||
| TOL - GRBK | 84% Closely correlated | +3.34% | ||
| DHI - GRBK | 83% Closely correlated | +3.59% | ||
| KBH - GRBK | 81% Closely correlated | +1.81% | ||
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