Energy ETFs sit at the intersection of commodity prices, capital-spending cycles, and macroeconomic policy, making a direct ETF comparison between the First Trust Natural Gas ETF (FCG) and the iShares U.S. Energy ETF (IYE) especially timely. Although both funds live inside the energy universe, they are not direct substitutes. FCG is a focused, equal-weighted natural gas vehicle, while IYE is a broad, market-cap-weighted U.S. energy fund led by integrated oil giants. Investors evaluating sector exposure and relative positioning will find meaningful differences in concentration, cost, and sensitivity to individual commodity markets.
FCG is a passively managed fund that seeks to track the ISE-Revere Natural Gas Index, an equal-weighted benchmark of exchange-listed companies deriving a substantial portion of revenue from the exploration, production, and midstream (transportation and processing) of natural gas. The fund typically holds around 40–45 positions, with top holdings including COP, EOG, HESM, WES, DVN, OXY, FANG, EQT, APA, and PR. No single position typically exceeds the mid-single digits, reflecting the equal-weight design. Energy represents roughly 97–99% of assets. The expense ratio is approximately 0.59%, and holdings include master limited partnerships (MLPs), publicly traded partnerships with tax-advantaged distributions. Its distinguishing feature is heightened sensitivity to natural gas prices rather than the broader energy complex.
IYE is a passively managed fund that seeks to track the Russell 1000 Energy RIC 22.5/45 Capped Index, a market-cap-weighted benchmark measuring the U.S. energy sector. The fund holds roughly 37–44 positions, but concentration is high: XOM and CVX alone represent about 23% and 16% of the portfolio, respectively. Other notable holdings include COP, MPC, VLO, PSX, WMB, EOG, SLB, and KMI. The top ten names account for roughly 70% of assets. Energy comprises about 98% of the portfolio, with integrated majors, refiners, and energy services layered on top of upstream producers. The expense ratio is approximately 0.37–0.38%, among the lowest in the category. This structure offers broad but top-heavy U.S. energy exposure.
Both funds operate in an energy market shaped by supply discipline, geopolitical risk, and evolving demand. Natural gas has benefited from rising electricity demand, growing liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity, and data-center power needs, supporting FCG-style E&P and midstream names. Meanwhile, integrated majors and refiners within IYE respond to crude oil balances, OPEC+ production decisions, refining margins, and shareholder-return policies such as buybacks and dividends. Regulatory shifts around drilling permits, pipeline approvals, and environmental policy add a policy-sensitive layer. Key risks include commodity-price volatility, capital-spending cycles, and the long-term energy transition, all of which can compress valuations and drive sharp rotations between sub-sectors.
Over recent market cycles, fund performance has diverged based on which commodity led. When natural gas prices strengthened, FCG's equal-weighted, gas-heavy portfolio generally exhibited more upside and higher volatility, given its tilt toward smaller, more commodity-sensitive producers. IYE, by contrast, has tended to deliver steadier performance driven by integrated majors and refiners, which are less levered to any single commodity. Its large-cap bias has historically translated into lower volatility and more consistent earnings from diversified operations. Relative positioning thus hinges on the investor's view: FCG provides concentrated gas-price leverage, while IYE offers broader, mega-cap-led energy exposure with stronger defensive characteristics and a cheaper fee structure.
Tickeron's AI Screener is an AI-powered stock and ETF discovery tool that helps traders and investors filter the market based on technical patterns, fundamentals, trends, volatility, and AI-driven signals. Users can scan thousands of stocks and ETFs using customizable filters such as industry, market capitalization, technical indicators, price patterns, and performance metrics. The screener helps identify trade ideas, trending stocks, breakout candidates, and market opportunities far more efficiently than manual screening. Explore the AI Screener to refine your own energy-sector watchlist today.
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward IYE for most broad-market investors. Its lower expense ratio, large-cap concentration in financially resilient integrated majors, superior liquidity, and historically lower volatility offer a more efficient core energy allocation. However, the AI would also recognize FCG as the stronger choice for investors specifically seeking natural gas price exposure and higher cyclical upside, given its equal-weighted, gas-centric design. In probabilistic terms, IYE presents more consistent structural strength and diversification across the energy value chain, while FCG carries elevated commodity-specific risk and potentially higher trend sensitivity.
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
FCG saw its Momentum Indicator move below the 0 level on November 02, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new downward move. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 93 similar instances where the indicator turned negative. In 82 of the 93 cases, the stock moved further down in the following days. The odds of a decline are at 88%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for FCG turned negative on November 03, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 41 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 85%.
FCG moved below its 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for FCG crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on November 09, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 17 of 21 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 81%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FCG declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 87%.
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where FCG's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 17 of 18 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +1.68% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FCG advanced for three days, in 339 of 375 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
FCG may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 258 of 288 cases where FCG Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 90%.
The RSI Indicator for IYE moved out of oversold territory on November 09, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 18 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 18 of the 18 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 90%.
The Stochastic Oscillator shows that the ticker has stayed in the oversold zone for 4 days. The price of this ticker is presumed to bounce back soon, since the longer the ticker stays in the oversold zone, the more promptly an upward trend is expected.
Following a +0.92% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where IYE advanced for three days, in 340 of 373 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
IYE may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 293 of 333 cases where IYE Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 88%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on November 02, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on IYE as a result. In 74 of 87 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 85%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for IYE turned negative on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 51 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 43 of the 51 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 84%.
IYE moved below its 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where IYE declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 80%.
| FCG | IYE | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 88% | 2 days ago 85% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 85% | 2 days ago 84% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 86% | 2 days ago 81% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 84% | 2 days ago 77% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 87% | 7 days ago 80% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 90% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 90% | 2 days ago 88% |
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, FCG has been closely correlated with OVV. These tickers have moved in lockstep 91% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if FCG jumps, then OVV could also see price increases.
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, IYE has been closely correlated with CVX. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if IYE jumps, then CVX could also see price increases.