Advertisement
FNV vs NEM
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Franco-Nevada (FNV) vs. Newmont (NEM) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Different business models: FNV is a debt-free royalty and streaming company, while NEM is the world's largest gold mining operator.
- Momentum diverged: Both stocks benefited from record gold prices, but their relative performance and forward outlooks moved in different directions in recent months.
- Cost exposure contrasts: FNV's model limits exposure to operating cost inflation, whereas NEM guided to higher costs and lower production in 2026.
- Balance sheets differ: FNV holds substantial available capital and no debt, while NEM exited 2025 with a large cash position but meaningful long-term debt.
- Risk profiles vary: NEM carries operational, joint-venture, and jurisdictional risk, while FNV is more exposed to portfolio and counterparty concentration risk.
Introduction
Gold's multi-year rally has reshaped the investment landscape for precious metals, but not all gold equities are built the same way. FNV (Franco-Nevada Corporation) and NEM (Newmont Corporation) offer two contrasting routes to gold exposure: one a capital-light royalty and streaming business, the other a global-scale mining operator. This stock comparison examines how these two names differ in business model, recent momentum, risk factors, and market positioning. It is most relevant to traders and investors weighing lower-volatility gold optionality against leveraged operational exposure to the metal's price, and to those assessing how relative performance may evolve in the current high-price environment.
FNV Overview and Recent Performance
Franco-Nevada Corporation is a Canada-based, gold-focused royalty and streaming company. Rather than operating mines, it provides upfront capital to miners in exchange for the right to buy metal at a reduced price or to receive a percentage of production, which limits its direct exposure to operating cost inflation. The company describes itself as debt-free and emphasizes a diversified portfolio of roughly 445 assets, with well over 100 currently cash-flowing.
Recent market activity has reflected both strength and some consolidation. FNV posted record first-quarter 2026 results, with revenue rising sharply year over year on higher gold, silver, and platinum group metal prices, and it has continued to expand its portfolio through royalty and streaming transactions. However, subsequent quarterly results landed modestly below consensus estimates, and the shares have pulled back from earlier highs while remaining well above their 2025 lows. Sentiment has been shaped by record precious metals prices, ongoing acquisition activity, and the company's ability to grow its dividend, which it has raised for nineteen consecutive years.
NEM Overview and Recent Performance
Newmont Corporation is a Denver-based gold mining company and the largest gold producer in the world, with a global portfolio spanning the Americas, Australia, and Africa. Unlike a royalty company, NEM operates and manages its own mines, which gives it direct leverage to gold prices but also exposes it to operating costs, capital spending, and operational execution risk.
Recent performance has been defined by a powerful but uneven trajectory. NEM delivered record full-year 2025 results, including roughly $7.2 billion in net income and a record $7.3 billion in free cash flow, supported by a substantial rise in its average realized gold price. Yet the shares sold off after the company issued more muted 2026 guidance, forecasting a decline in attributable gold production and an increase in all-in sustaining costs (AISC, a comprehensive per-ounce measure of total production costs). An escalating dispute with joint-venture partner Barrick Gold over the Nevada Gold Mines operation added further uncertainty, and the stock has since fluctuated as investors weigh strong cash generation against weaker operational visibility.
Trending AI Robots
For traders seeking a data-driven edge in volatile sectors, Tickeron's Trending AI Robots page offers a curated view of algorithmic trading strategies. Tickeron hosts hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, but only those best suited to current market conditions earn a place in this rotating selection. These bots vary widely in trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance statistics, and the sets of tickers they cover, giving users a range of approaches to review. Because each bot's record and parameters are displayed, traders can compare approaches rather than rely on a single signal. Explore the Trending AI Robots section to see which strategies are currently leading.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The core trade-off between these two stocks is leverage versus stability. NEM's operating model translates a rising gold price directly into per-share earnings, but it also concentrates risk in mine sequencing, all-in sustaining costs, and specific jurisdictions. Its 2026 guidance for lower production and higher costs, combined with the Nevada Gold Mines dispute, illustrates that operational factors can offset favorable metal prices.
FNV, by contrast, monetizes gold through royalties and streams, producing high margins and insulation from direct cost inflation. Its principal vulnerabilities lie elsewhere: counterparty risk across operators, delivery timing that can be uneven from quarter to quarter, and a premium valuation that has at times capped relative upside. In terms of sector exposure, both are driven primarily by precious metals, but FNV adds diversification through silver, platinum group metals, and a smaller energy segment. On sentiment, NEM has carried greater cyclical momentum and volatility, while FNV has generally offered a steadier, dividend-oriented profile.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward FNV in the current environment. The royalty and streaming model tends to display more consistent trend behavior and lower drawdown sensitivity to operational surprises than a leveraged miner, and FNV's debt-free balance sheet and ongoing portfolio expansion provide steadier catalysts. That said, NEM retains stronger short-term earnings leverage should gold prices continue to advance, and any resolution of its joint-venture dispute could serve as a positive catalyst. The favorable tilt toward FNV therefore reflects a probabilistic preference for stability and trend quality over the more volatile, catalyst-dependent profile of NEM.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is FNV is a StrongBuy and NEM is a Hold.
FNV in upward trend: price expected to rise as it breaks its lower Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026
FNV may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 26 of 38 cases where FNV's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where FNV's RSI Oscillator exited the oversold zone, 13 of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 40 of 59 cases where FNV's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 68%.
Following a +3.69% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where FNV advanced for three days, in 207 of 330 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 63%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on FNV as a result. In 58 of 78 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 74%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence Histogram (MACD) for FNV turned negative on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to turn lower in the coming weeks. Traders may want to sell the stock or buy put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances when the indicator turned negative. In 30 of the 48 cases the stock turned lower in the days that followed. This puts the odds of success at 62%.
FNV moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for FNV crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 14 of 20 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where FNV declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
The Aroon Indicator for FNV entered a downward trend on October 09, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. FNV’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 74 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (5.699) is normal, around the industry mean (1.927). P/E Ratio (31.746) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-15.408). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.190) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.345) among similar stocks. FNV's P/S Ratio (21.645) is slightly higher than the industry average of (7.321).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 79 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
NEM in -1.51% downward trend, sliding for three consecutive days on October 20, 2026
Moving lower for three straight days is viewed as a bearish sign. Keep an eye on this stock for future declines. Considering data from situations where NEM declined for three days, in 181 of 276 cases, the price declined further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 40 of 62 cases where NEM's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 65%.
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on NEM as a result. In 47 of 79 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
NEM moved below its 50-day moving average on September 30, 2026 date and that indicates a change from an upward trend to a downward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NEM crossed bearishly below the 50-day moving average on October 06, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted lower and could be considered a sell signal. In 6 of 12 past instances when the 10-day crossed below the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 50%.
The Aroon Indicator for NEM entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NEM just turned positive on October 19, 2026. Looking at past instances where NEM's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 41 of 59 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Following a +6.31% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NEM advanced for three days, in 252 of 324 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 78%.
NEM may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 33 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 65, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. NEM’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 93 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.503) is normal, around the industry mean (1.927). P/E Ratio (14.721) is within average values for comparable stocks, (-15.408). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.781) is also within normal values, averaging (2.614). Dividend Yield (0.009) settles around the average of (0.345) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.144) is also within normal values, averaging (7.321).
FNV | NEM | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 6 | 78 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 74 Overvalued | 93 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 36 | 33 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 46 | 38 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 79 | 48 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 30 | 90 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
FNV's Valuation (74) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as NEM (93). This means that FNV’s stock grew similarly to NEM’s over the last 12 months.
NEM's Profit vs Risk Rating (33) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as FNV (36). This means that NEM’s stock grew similarly to FNV’s over the last 12 months.
NEM's SMR Rating (38) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as FNV (46). This means that NEM’s stock grew similarly to FNV’s over the last 12 months.
NEM's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as FNV (47). This means that NEM’s stock grew similarly to FNV’s over the last 12 months.
NEM's P/E Growth Rating (48) in the Precious Metals industry is in the same range as FNV (79). This means that NEM’s stock grew similarly to FNV’s over the last 12 months.
| FNV | NEM | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | N/A |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 65% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 74% | 1 day ago 59% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 69% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 63% | 7 days ago 78% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 66% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 66% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 62% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
FNV’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while NEM’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- FNV’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- NEM’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
FNV’s TA Score shows that 4 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NEM’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- FNV’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 6 bearish.
- NEM’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
FNV (@Precious Metals) experienced а -3.71% price change this week, while NEM (@Precious Metals) price change was -1.45% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Precious Metals industry was -5.92%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -20.21%, and the average quarterly price growth was -15.45%.
Reported Earning Dates
FNV is expected to report earnings on Nov 11, 2026.
NEM is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Precious Metals (-5.92% weekly)The Precious Metals industry is engaged in exploring/mining metals that are considered to be rare and/or have a high economic value. Popular precious metals include gold, platinum and silver - all three of which are largely used in jewelry, art and coinage alongwith having some industrial uses as well. Precious metals used in industrial processes include iridium, (used in specialty alloys), and palladium ( used in electronics and chemical applications). Historically, precious metals have traded at much higher prices than common industrial metals. Newmont Goldcorp Corp, Barrick Gold Corp and Freeport-McMoRan are few of the major precious metals producing companies in the U.S.
Advertisement
NEM and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NEM has been closely correlated with AEM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 89% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NEM jumps, then AEM could also see price increases.