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HII vs LMT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) vs. Lockheed Martin (LMT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- HII is a focused military shipbuilder (aircraft carriers, submarines, amphibious ships), while LMT is a diversified aerospace and defense prime spanning aeronautics, missiles, rotary, and space.
- Relative performance has diverged sharply: LMT has gained roughly 8–9% year to date, while HII has declined around 19–20% over the same period.
- LMT entered recent weeks with a record $230.4 billion backlog and raised full-year guidance; HII raised its shipbuilding outlook after securing about $76.6 billion in new submarine contract modifications.
- Scale differs materially: LMT's market capitalization is around $121 billion versus roughly $10–11 billion for HII.
- Both names carry execution risk on fixed-price programs, but HII adds concentration risk tied to a handful of Navy programs and shipyards.
Introduction
Defense stocks have drawn renewed investor attention as governments prioritize weapons restocking, naval expansion, and maritime security. Within that theme, HII and LMT represent two very different ways to gain exposure. HII is the largest U.S. military shipbuilder, a niche play on naval fleet growth, while LMT is the Pentagon's largest supplier, spanning fighter jets, missiles, and space systems. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing a concentrated shipbuilding thesis against a diversified defense franchise, and for traders monitoring how market sentiment and relative performance have shifted between the two names in recent weeks.
HII Overview and Recent Performance
Huntington Ingalls Industries designs, builds, and maintains nuclear-powered and non-nuclear ships for the U.S. Navy, primarily through its Newport News Shipbuilding and Ingalls Shipbuilding divisions, alongside a smaller Mission Technologies unit focused on unmanned systems and related services. Recent market activity has been mixed: after a second-quarter earnings beat, the stock rallied, but broader momentum has since cooled, with the share price down roughly 15–20% year to date and trading well below its 52-week high.
Fundamentally, the picture is more encouraging. In its most recent quarter, HII reported sales of about $3.4 billion, up nearly 11% year over year, with shipbuilding revenue climbing 16%. The company also raised its full-year shipbuilding revenue outlook to roughly $10.2–$10.4 billion. The key catalyst was approximately $76.6 billion in Virginia-class and Columbia-class submarine contract modifications, which strengthens multi-year revenue visibility. Sentiment has been shaped by both this contract momentum and lingering concerns about labor availability, shipyard throughput, and margin timing across long-cycle Navy programs.
LMT Overview and Recent Performance
Lockheed Martin is a global aerospace and defense company operating across four segments: Aeronautics, Missiles and Fire Control, Rotary and Mission Systems, and Space. Its portfolio includes the F-35 fighter, PAC-3 and THAAD missile interceptors, and a range of space and rotary programs. Recent performance has been more volatile than HII's: LMT reached an all-time high near $692 early in the year, sold off sharply in the spring after weaker first-quarter results, then recovered after a strong second quarter. It is up roughly 8–9% year to date but remains about 20% or more below its peak.
Second-quarter results showed revenue of about $20.1 billion, up 11%, with earnings well above estimates. The company raised its full-year revenue and per-share profit guidance and reported a record $230.4 billion backlog, up 38% from a year earlier, driven by a $35 billion THAAD contract and a PAC-3 agreement that grew to roughly $59 billion. The main risk factor is execution on fixed-price development programs, where cost overruns on F-16 and C-130 work have periodically pressured margins.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The two companies differ most in business model and diversification. HII is essentially a shipbuilding pure-play, concentrated in aircraft carriers, submarines, and amphibious vessels, with significant exposure to a small number of long-cycle Navy programs. LMT is a diversified prime contractor whose revenue spans aircraft, missiles, helicopters, and space, giving it multiple demand drivers and less reliance on any single program or customer budget line.
Growth drivers also diverge. HII's story centers on naval fleet expansion and multi-billion-dollar submarine awards, while LMT is benefiting from a broad weapons-restocking cycle, missile-defense demand, and international sales (roughly 28% of 2025 revenue). In recent momentum, LMT has shown greater relative strength, while HII has lagged despite strong quarterly fundamentals. On risk, HII carries concentration and labor/throughput risk across its shipyards, whereas LMT's main exposure is fixed-price development cost overruns. Valuation and dividend profiles also differ, with LMT's 23-year dividend-growth streak contrasting HII's more modest but still meaningful yield.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward LMT in the current environment. LMT currently shows stronger trend consistency and relative performance, a record backlog supporting revenue visibility, and multiple near-term catalysts across missiles and international orders. HII's fundamentals are improving and its submarine awards are substantial, but its recent price weakness and concentrated program exposure suggest less favorable trend alignment. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting relative positioning rather than a guarantee of future returns.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is HII is a Hold and LMT is a Hold.
HII's Indicator enters downward trend
The Aroon Indicator for HII entered a downward trend on October 15, 2026. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor identified a pattern where the AroonDown red line was above 70 while the AroonUp green line was below 30 for three straight days. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. A.I.dvisor looked at 162 similar instances where the Aroon Indicator formed such a pattern. In 98 of the 162 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 60%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved below the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider selling the stock, shorting the stock, or exploring put options on HII as a result. In 42 of 77 cases where the Momentum Indicator fell below 0, the stock fell further within the subsequent month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 55%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HII declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where HII's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 18 of 29 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Stochastic Oscillator suggests the stock price trend may be in a reversal from a downward trend to an upward trend. 34 of 53 cases where HII's Stochastic Oscillator exited the oversold zone resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for HII just turned positive on October 01, 2026. Looking at past instances where HII's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 24 of 40 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Following a +3.64% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HII advanced for three days, in 205 of 337 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
HII may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 28 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly undervalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.907) is normal, around the industry mean (6.305). P/E Ratio (15.310) is within average values for comparable stocks, (58.116). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.788) is also within normal values, averaging (2.564). Dividend Yield (0.022) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.830) is also within normal values, averaging (18.330).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. HII’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 68 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. HII’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 75 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
LMT's RSI Indicator climbs out of oversold territory
The RSI Indicator for LMT moved out of oversold territory on October 08, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is shifting from a downward trend to an upward trend. Traders may want to buy the stock or call options. The A.I.dvisor looked at 37 similar instances when the indicator left oversold territory. In 22 of the 37 cases the stock moved higher. This puts the odds of a move higher at 59%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on LMT as a result. In 43 of 78 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 55%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for LMT just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where LMT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 20 of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 48%.
Following a +5.68% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LMT advanced for three days, in 194 of 339 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator entered the overbought zone. Expect a price pull-back in the foreseeable future.
The 50-day moving average for LMT moved below the 200-day moving average on September 21, 2026. This could be a long-term bearish signal for the stock as the stock shifts to an downward trend.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LMT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
LMT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 15, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for LMT entered a downward trend on October 15, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 38 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 77, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 54 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. LMT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 60 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (13.643) is normal, around the industry mean (6.305). P/E Ratio (19.104) is within average values for comparable stocks, (58.116). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.978) is also within normal values, averaging (2.564). Dividend Yield (0.027) settles around the average of (0.009) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.616) is also within normal values, averaging (18.330).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 77 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
HII | LMT | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 58 | 19 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 28 Undervalued | 60 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 68 | 38 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 61 | 15 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 61 | 54 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 75 | 77 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 75 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HII's Valuation (28) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as LMT (60). This means that HII’s stock grew similarly to LMT’s over the last 12 months.
LMT's Profit vs Risk Rating (38) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as HII (68). This means that LMT’s stock grew similarly to HII’s over the last 12 months.
LMT's SMR Rating (15) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HII (61). This means that LMT’s stock grew somewhat faster than HII’s over the last 12 months.
LMT's Price Growth Rating (54) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as HII (61). This means that LMT’s stock grew similarly to HII’s over the last 12 months.
HII's P/E Growth Rating (75) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as LMT (77). This means that HII’s stock grew similarly to LMT’s over the last 12 months.
| HII | LMT | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 62% | 1 day ago 59% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 64% | 1 day ago 40% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 55% | 1 day ago 55% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 48% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 54% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 14 days ago 53% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 54% | 1 day ago 41% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 60% | 1 day ago 50% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HII’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while LMT’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- HII’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- LMT’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HII’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LMT’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HII’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- LMT’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
HII (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а +0.83% price change this week, while LMT (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was +4.87% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was -5.75%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -12.43%, and the average quarterly price growth was -20.67%.
Reported Earning Dates
HII is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
LMT is expected to report earnings on Oct 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (-5.75% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
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HII and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HII has been loosely correlated with KTOS. These tickers have moved in lockstep 54% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if HII jumps, then KTOS could also see price increases.