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HII vs LMT
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Huntington Ingalls Industries (HII) vs. Lockheed Martin (LMT) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both HII and LMT are U.S. defense contractors, but HII is concentrated in naval shipbuilding while LMT is a diversified aerospace and defense prime.
- LMT has delivered stronger recent relative performance, supported by a record backlog and surging missile demand, while HII shares have declined roughly 20% year-to-date.
- LMT raised its full-year 2026 outlook after a strong second quarter; HII reaffirmed guidance but faces margin compression and seasonally weak cash flow.
- Both companies carry execution risk on fixed-price government programs, though LMT has recovered from large prior-year losses while HII's shipbuilding margins have narrowed.
- HII trades at a lower valuation on a forward price-to-sales basis, while LMT sits closer to its own five-year average earnings multiple.
Introduction
Huntington Ingalls Industries and Lockheed Martin operate in the same defense sector but occupy very different niches within it. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing a focused naval shipbuilder against a diversified aerospace-and-defense giant at a time when global defense budgets, missile demand, and shipbuilding capacity are all in focus. HII is the nation's largest military shipbuilder, while LMT produces platforms and systems ranging from the F-35 fighter to air-and-missile-defense interceptors. Traders and long-term investors evaluating relative performance, market positioning, and risk profiles may find this head-to-head useful in deciding where defense exposure fits their portfolio.
HII Overview and Recent Performance
Huntington Ingalls Industries designs, builds, overhauls, and repairs military ships, operating through its Newport News Shipbuilding, Ingalls Shipbuilding, and Mission Technologies divisions. Its work spans aircraft carriers, submarines, surface combatants, and unmanned and autonomous systems. In recent weeks, HII reported first-quarter results with earnings of $3.79 per share and revenue of $3.10 billion, up about 13% year over year, while booking $4.0 billion in new awards to lift total backlog to roughly $54 billion.
Despite steady demand, sentiment has softened. HII shares have fallen meaningfully year-to-date, with analysts citing execution risk in fixed-price carrier work, margin pressure, and uneven cash conversion. Shipbuilding segment margins narrowed, and free cash flow was negative in the most recent quarter. Recent catalysts, including an AUKUS submarine engineering contract and a $5.1 billion aircraft-carrier refueling and overhaul award, underscore long-term workload visibility, but the market has yet to reward that visibility amid near-term margin and cash-flow concerns.
LMT Overview and Recent Performance
Lockheed Martin is a diversified aerospace and defense company whose portfolio includes the F-35 fighter, PAC-3 and THAAD missile-defense interceptors, Sikorsky helicopters, and space systems. In its most recent quarter, sales rose about 11% to $20.1 billion, diluted earnings per share (EPS, a measure of profit allocated to each share) reached $7.94, and backlog climbed to a record $230.4 billion. Management subsequently raised full-year guidance for sales, segment profit, earnings, and free cash flow.
Momentum has been driven by the Missiles and Fire Control segment, where sales grew roughly 19%, supported by multiyear contracts for THAAD and PAC-3 interceptors. That strength has helped LMT shares outperform HII in recent market activity. However, risks remain: F-35 deliveries slowed sharply year over year, and analyst price targets have diverged, with some firms lowering targets while others upgraded the stock. Overall, LMT's relative performance reflects recovering profitability and strong order visibility, balanced against fixed-price program risk and federal budget uncertainty.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
HII and LMT diverge sharply in business model. HII is essentially a pure-play naval shipbuilder with revenue tied to long-cycle, capital-intensive carrier and submarine programs, whereas LMT spreads exposure across aircraft, missiles, space, and rotary systems. This difference shapes growth drivers: HII leans on multi-decade shipbuilding backlogs and emerging unmanned-systems work, while LMT is riding accelerating demand for air-and-missile-defense interceptors.
Recent momentum also differs. LMT has benefited from record backlog, raised guidance, and a recovery in segment profitability, helping its shares gain ground year-to-date. HII, by contrast, has underperformed as investors weigh margin compression and negative free cash flow against a solid $54 billion backlog. On valuation, HII trades at a notable discount on a forward price-to-sales basis, while LMT's forward earnings multiple sits modestly below its historical average. Risk factors overlap—both face fixed-price execution risk and dependence on federal budgets—but HII's risk is concentrated in shipyard throughput and working capital, while LMT's centers on program charges and slowing F-35 deliveries. Sector exposure and market sentiment currently favor LMT's diversification and order momentum.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, stability, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely favor LMT over HII in the current environment. LMT's combination of a record backlog, upwardly revised guidance, recovering margins, and strong relative momentum presents a more consistent near-term trend profile. HII's long-term backlog and AUKUS-related work are meaningful, but negative free cash flow and narrowing margins introduce greater execution uncertainty. A probabilistic AI assessment would therefore lean toward LMT for trend stability and catalyst strength, while recognizing that HII's discounted valuation could appeal if shipbuilding execution improves.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is HII is a Buy and LMT is a Hold.
HII in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026
The 10-day moving average for HII crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 11 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 73%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 16, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on HII as a result. In 43 of 77 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 56%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for HII just turned positive on October 01, 2026. Looking at past instances where HII's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 27 of 41 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
HII moved above its 50-day moving average on October 26, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +13.47% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HII advanced for three days, in 206 of 337 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 61%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for HII moved out of overbought territory on November 04, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 48 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 23 of the 48 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 48%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 12 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HII declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
HII broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 29, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for HII entered a downward trend on October 22, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 31 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. HII’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 53 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.255) is normal, around the industry mean (5.045). P/E Ratio (18.105) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.993). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.788) is also within normal values, averaging (3.110). Dividend Yield (0.018) settles around the average of (0.058) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.830) is also within normal values, averaging (18.367).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 61 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
LMT in upward trend: 10-day moving average crossed above 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026
The 10-day moving average for LMT crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 14, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on LMT as a result. In 39 of 77 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for LMT just turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where LMT's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 20 of 42 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 48%.
LMT moved above its 50-day moving average on October 16, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.31% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LMT advanced for three days, in 193 of 336 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for LMT moved out of overbought territory on November 04, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 42 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 15 of the 42 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 36%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 28 of 62 cases where LMT's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 45%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LMT declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
LMT broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for LMT entered a downward trend on October 15, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 6 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. LMT’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 15 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 28 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 78, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 65 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 76 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: LMT's P/B Ratio (15.663) is slightly higher than the industry average of (5.045). P/E Ratio (21.852) is within average values for comparable stocks, (17.993). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.978) is also within normal values, averaging (3.110). Dividend Yield (0.023) settles around the average of (0.058) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.616) is also within normal values, averaging (18.367).
HII | LMT | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 27 | 40 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 53 Fair valued | 76 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 60 | 28 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 61 | 15 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 31 | 6 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 65 | 65 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HII's Valuation (53) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as LMT (76). This means that HII’s stock grew similarly to LMT’s over the last 12 months.
LMT's Profit vs Risk Rating (28) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as HII (60). This means that LMT’s stock grew similarly to HII’s over the last 12 months.
LMT's SMR Rating (15) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HII (61). This means that LMT’s stock grew somewhat faster than HII’s over the last 12 months.
LMT's Price Growth Rating (6) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as HII (31). This means that LMT’s stock grew similarly to HII’s over the last 12 months.
LMT's P/E Growth Rating (65) in the Aerospace And Defense industry is in the same range as HII (65). This means that LMT’s stock grew similarly to HII’s over the last 12 months.
| HII | LMT | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 36% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 45% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 56% | 1 day ago 51% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 66% | 1 day ago 48% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 53% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 65% | 1 day ago 53% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 7 days ago 61% | 8 days ago 57% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 24 days ago 60% | 1 day ago 53% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 47% | 1 day ago 45% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 70% | 1 day ago 45% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HII’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while LMT’s FA Score has 3 green FA rating(s).
- HII’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- LMT’s FA Score: 3 green, 2 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HII’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LMT’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HII’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- LMT’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
HII (@Aerospace & Defense) experienced а +8.86% price change this week, while LMT (@Aerospace & Defense) price change was -5.51% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Aerospace & Defense industry was -3.99%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -10.62%, and the average quarterly price growth was -19.25%.
Reported Earning Dates
HII is expected to report earnings on Feb 11, 2027.
LMT is expected to report earnings on Jan 26, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Aerospace & Defense (-3.99% weekly)Aerospace & Defense is one of largest industries in the U.S., mainly comprising the following areas: commercial airliners, military aircraft, missiles, space, and general aviation. Focused heavily on research & development, it is also one of the fastest growing industries. Military aircraft has the largest market share in the industry’s sales, followed by space systems, civil aircraft, and missiles. Aerospace exports, directly and indirectly, support more jobs than the export of any other commodity, according to a study by the U.S. Department of Commerce. Boeing Company, Lockheed Martin Corporation and General Electric Company are some of the most prominent players in this space.
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