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HLI vs NDAQ
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Houlihan Lokey (HLI) vs. Nasdaq (NDAQ) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Two very different financial profiles: Houlihan Lokey is an independent investment bank, while Nasdaq is an exchange operator and financial-technology platform, making this a comparison of cyclical dealmaking versus recurring, technology-driven revenue.
- Momentum currently diverges: Nasdaq has posted double-digit revenue and earnings growth with multiple record metrics, while Houlihan Lokey has faced softer quarters driven by deal timing and weaker technology activity.
- Relative performance gap: HLI shares have retreated sharply from their 52-week high in recent market activity, whereas NDAQ has been supported by strong listings, index, and fintech momentum.
- Growth drivers differ: HLI leans on M&A (mergers and acquisitions) and restructuring cycles, while NDAQ leans on recurring SaaS (software-as-a-service), index, and data revenues.
- Risk profiles contrast: HLI carries earnings volatility tied to transaction closings, while NDAQ offers steadier subscription income but faces competitive and regulatory exposure.
- Both carry Buy-leaning analyst sentiment, but the AI verdict favors consistency and current trend strength.
Introduction
Investors comparing HLI and NDAQ are effectively weighing two distinct ways to participate in capital markets. Houlihan Lokey generates fees advising companies on mergers, restructurings, and valuations, making its results sensitive to deal flow. Nasdaq, by contrast, earns revenue from exchange trading, listings, market data, indexes, and regulatory technology, much of it recurring. This stock comparison matters for traders assessing relative performance and for longer-term investors evaluating market positioning, growth durability, and how each business behaves across the economic cycle.
HLI Overview and Recent Performance
Houlihan Lokey (HLI) is a global independent investment bank operating across three segments: Corporate Finance, Financial Restructuring, and Financial and Valuation Advisory. The firm delivered record annual revenues for its fiscal year ended March 31, 2026, of roughly $2.62 billion, but recent quarters have revealed pressure points. Corporate Finance revenue declined in the latest reported quarter, while technology-related fee income dropped sharply as softer software valuations prompted clients to delay deals. Financial Restructuring, normally a counterweight during deal slowdowns, also weakened on a timing basis.
Sentiment has been mixed. Shares fell well below their prior-year high in recent market activity, and forward estimates have seen downward revisions. However, management has pointed to record backlog and new-business activity, and analysts have recently upgraded the stock, citing improving restructuring and valuation-advisory outlooks. The consensus view remains Buy, though near-term earnings visibility is limited by unpredictable transaction closings.
NDAQ Overview and Recent Performance
Nasdaq (NDAQ) operates an exchange plus a growing financial-technology business spanning Capital Access Platforms, Financial Technology, and Market Services. Recent quarters have been strong: net revenues rose roughly 14–15% year over year, with non-GAAP (non-Generally Accepted Accounting Principles) earnings per share (EPS) up more than 20%. Annualized recurring revenue climbed into the double digits, and the index business crossed $1 trillion in exchange-traded product assets under management (AUM).
Notable catalysts include a record-setting listings environment headlined by the SpaceX IPO (initial public offering), the largest in exchange history, plus expanding adoption of its Verafin financial-crime and Calypso platforms. The company raised its quarterly dividend and has continued buybacks. Non-GAAP operating margin sits around 57%. Analyst sentiment is broadly positive, with a Strong Buy consensus, though some firms have initiated neutral coverage, noting valuation and competitive considerations.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast is revenue durability versus cyclical upside. Houlihan Lokey's fee-based model offers high operating leverage when deal activity accelerates but produces lumpy quarters when transactions slip. Nasdaq's diversified, subscription-heavy mix provides smoother revenue and steady margins, reinforced by its index and fintech franchises, though it remains exposed to trading volumes and competitive pressures in data and technology.
On recent momentum, Nasdaq has demonstrated clearer, more consistent execution, with broad-based growth and multiple records. Houlihan Lokey, while historically a strong compounder, is navigating a period of delayed closings and technology-sector softness. Market positioning also differs: HLI trades below its five-year valuation median but above its industry average, whereas NDAQ trades below its own historical range, which some analysts frame as an underappreciated earnings-growth profile. Risk factors diverge accordingly—HLI faces deal-timing and competition risk, while NDAQ faces integration and regulatory-technology competitive dynamics.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability, and catalyst momentum, Tickeron's AI would likely favor NDAQ in the current environment. Nasdaq's sustained double-digit revenue growth, record listings and index metrics, rising recurring revenue, and expanding margins reflect stronger, more predictable trend signals. Houlihan Lokey retains meaningful recovery potential given its record backlog, but its recent quarters show choppier earnings and a more uncertain near-term path. In probabilistic terms, the AI's edge tilts toward the steadier, better-confirmed trend, while acknowledging HLI could reassert itself if deal closings accelerate.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is HLI is a Buy and NDAQ is a Buy.
Momentum Indicator for HLI turns positive, indicating new upward trend
HLI saw its Momentum Indicator move above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. This is an indication that the stock could be shifting in to a new upward move. Traders may want to consider buying the stock or buying call options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 82 similar instances where the indicator turned positive. In 58 of the 82 cases, the stock moved higher in the following days. The odds of a move higher are at 71%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for HLI just turned positive on October 12, 2026. Looking at past instances where HLI's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 39 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
HLI moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for HLI crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 16 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Following a +5.28% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where HLI advanced for three days, in 202 of 355 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where HLI declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 62%.
HLI broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for HLI entered a downward trend on October 16, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 51 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. HLI’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 88, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 80 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.538) is normal, around the industry mean (3.059). P/E Ratio (24.007) is within average values for comparable stocks, (6.833). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.210) is also within normal values, averaging (0.809). Dividend Yield (0.019) settles around the average of (8.748) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.517) is also within normal values, averaging (16.899).
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 81 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
NDAQ's MACD Histogram just turned positive
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for NDAQ turned positive on October 09, 2026. Looking at past instances where NDAQ's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 43 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 77%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 15, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on NDAQ as a result. In 51 of 79 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
NDAQ moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for NDAQ crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 8 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 53%.
Following a +2.86% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where NDAQ advanced for three days, in 224 of 352 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 188 of 340 cases where NDAQ Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 55%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrates that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 7 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 10 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where NDAQ declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 51%.
NDAQ broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 21, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 18 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 71, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 20 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating outstanding price growth. NDAQ’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 52 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 89 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (4.988) is normal, around the industry mean (4.113). P/E Ratio (30.916) is within average values for comparable stocks, (19.316). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (1.712) is also within normal values, averaging (1.780). Dividend Yield (0.012) settles around the average of (0.017) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (5.831) is also within normal values, averaging (7.166).
HLI | NDAQ | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 35 | 44 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 80 Overvalued | 89 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 58 | 18 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 49 | 52 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 51 | 20 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 81 | 43 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
HLI's Valuation (80) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as NDAQ (89). This means that HLI’s stock grew similarly to NDAQ’s over the last 12 months.
NDAQ's Profit vs Risk Rating (18) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HLI (58). This means that NDAQ’s stock grew somewhat faster than HLI’s over the last 12 months.
HLI's SMR Rating (49) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as NDAQ (52). This means that HLI’s stock grew similarly to NDAQ’s over the last 12 months.
NDAQ's Price Growth Rating (20) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is in the same range as HLI (51). This means that NDAQ’s stock grew similarly to HLI’s over the last 12 months.
NDAQ's P/E Growth Rating (43) in the Investment Banks Or Brokers industry is somewhat better than the same rating for HLI (81). This means that NDAQ’s stock grew somewhat faster than HLI’s over the last 12 months.
| HLI | NDAQ | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 58% | 2 days ago 47% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 62% | 2 days ago 47% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 71% | 2 days ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 67% | 2 days ago 77% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 63% | 2 days ago 64% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 62% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 57% | 2 days ago 64% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 9 days ago 62% | 21 days ago 51% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 39% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 60% | 2 days ago 55% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
HLI’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while NDAQ’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- HLI’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- NDAQ’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
HLI’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while NDAQ’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- HLI’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- NDAQ’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
HLI (@Investment Banks/Brokers) experienced а +11.61% price change this week, while NDAQ (@Financial Publishing/Services) price change was +3.72% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Investment Banks/Brokers industry was -6.31%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -19.42%, and the average quarterly price growth was -23.80%.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Financial Publishing/Services industry was +4.23%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +11.89%, and the average quarterly price growth was +11.34%.
Reported Earning Dates
HLI is expected to report earnings on Feb 02, 2027.
NDAQ is expected to report earnings on Feb 03, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Investment Banks/Brokers (-6.31% weekly)These banks specialize in underwriting (helping companies with debt financing or equity issuances), IPOs, facilitating mergers and other corporate reorganizations and acting as a broker or financial advisor for institutions. They might also trade securities on their own accounts. Investment banks potentially thrive on expanding its network of clients, since that could help them increase profits. Goldman Sachs, Morgan Stanley and CME Group Inc are some of the largest investment banking companies.
@Financial Publishing/Services (+4.23% weekly)The financial publishing /services sector includes companies that provide informational products and services that are of value to investors, financial/analytics professionals and other interested readers. The products include real-time stock quotes, financial news and analyses. Think S&P Global, Inc., Moody`s Corporation, Thomson-Reuters Corp and IHS Markit Ltd. Information is critical in making financial or investment decisions, and what makes this industry’s output relevant at all times, across various economic conditions.
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HLI and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, HLI has been closely correlated with RJF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 76% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if HLI jumps, then RJF could also see price increases.
NDAQ and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, NDAQ has been closely correlated with JEF. These tickers have moved in lockstep 71% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if NDAQ jumps, then JEF could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To NDAQ | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| NDAQ | 100% | -1.52% | ||
| JEF - NDAQ | 71% Closely correlated | +0.60% | ||
| MS - NDAQ | 71% Closely correlated | +0.19% | ||
| GS - NDAQ | 70% Closely correlated | -0.29% | ||
| RJF - NDAQ | 69% Closely correlated | -0.39% | ||
| SF - NDAQ | 66% Closely correlated | -0.04% | ||
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