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IBP vs MTH
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Installed Building Products (IBP) vs. Meritage Homes (MTH) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- IBP delivered record full-year profitability and expanding margins, while MTH reported sharply lower earnings and compressing homebuilding margins.
- The two companies differ by business model: IBP is a diversified installer of building products, whereas MTH is a single-family homebuilder.
- Relative performance has diverged, with IBP showing more stable trend consistency and MTH facing a declining backlog and weaker pricing power.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Based on trend consistency, margin durability, and catalyst quality, Tickeron's AI would currently favor IBP over MTH.
- For more detail, explore IBP Major News and IBP Today's Price Move, as well as MTH Major News and MTH Today's Price Move.
- To see how AI trading bots are positioning across these and other tickers, explore the Trending AI Robots page.
Introduction
Both IBP (Installed Building Products, Inc.) and MTH (Meritage Homes Corporation) are exposed to the U.S. housing market, yet they sit at opposite ends of the residential construction value chain. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing a diversified installation-services business against a pure-play homebuilder during a period of elevated mortgage rates and softer demand for new single-family homes. Examining their recent earnings, relative performance, and market positioning helps clarify which business model has demonstrated greater resilience. Both growth-oriented and value-focused traders may find the contrast instructive, given the meaningful divergence in profitability trends between these two names.
IBP Overview and Recent Performance
Installed Building Products is one of the nation's largest installers of insulation and complementary building products, including waterproofing, fireproofing, garage doors, and rain gutters, serving residential and commercial builders. In recent weeks, IBP reported record fourth-quarter and full-year profitability, even as consolidated revenue held roughly flat. Adjusted earnings per share (EPS) came in above consensus, and the company posted a record adjusted gross margin of 35% alongside a record 19% adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margin.
This margin expansion was driven largely by a strategic pivot toward commercial and heavy-commercial work, where same-branch sales rose sharply, helping to offset softness in residential new construction. Management also authorized a new $500 million share repurchase program and increased dividends, signaling confidence in cash generation. Acquisitions remain a core growth lever, with the company completing 11 transactions during the year. The result has been more consistent relative performance than many peers tied closely to single-family starts.
MTH Overview and Recent Performance
Meritage Homes designs and builds energy-efficient single-family attached and detached homes across 10 states. In recent market activity, MTH reported a notable year-over-year decline in fourth-quarter profitability, with home closing revenue down roughly 12% and net earnings falling by about half. Home closing gross margin contracted meaningfully, reflecting greater use of incentives, higher lot costs, and reduced fixed-cost leverage on lower volume. The company's backlog also declined versus the prior year.
Management has responded by accelerating share repurchases, trimming go-forward overhead, and growing its community count, which management sees as positioning the company to capture share when demand improves. MTH maintains a strong balance sheet, with no borrowings under its revolving credit facility and a low net debt-to-capital ratio. Still, near-term momentum has been constrained by affordability pressures and pricing headwinds, contributing to a cheaper valuation but weaker recent earnings trajectory compared with IBP.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron operates a broad ecosystem of AI Trading Bots covering thousands of different tickers, but only a select group earns placement in the curated Trending AI Robots section. These featured bots are chosen for their suitability to current market conditions, drawing on diverse trading styles, strategies, timeframes, and statistical track records. With hundreds of bots available, each is built around different performance metrics, risk profiles, and sets of tickers it trades, allowing users to compare approaches rather than rely on a single method. For traders seeking a data-driven, systematic view of names like those discussed here, exploring the Trending AI Robots page offers a practical starting point for evaluating how automated strategies are currently positioned.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The most important contrast between these two stocks is business-model exposure. IBP operates a diversified installation and distribution model that spans residential, commercial, and repair-and-remodel end markets, giving it multiple demand channels. MTH, by contrast, is concentrated in single-family homebuilding, where affordability and mortgage-rate sensitivity are more direct.
Growth drivers also differ. IBP leans on acquisitions, commercial expansion, and price-mix discipline, while MTH relies on community-count growth and a rebound in buyer demand. On risk factors, IBP carries a premium valuation and higher leverage relative to earnings, whereas MTH trades at a lower multiple but faces margin compression and shrinking backlog. In terms of market sentiment, IBP has benefited from record margins and aggressive capital returns, while MTH is being treated more conservatively despite a solid balance sheet and cheaper valuation.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors, Tickeron's AI would likely favor IBP at present. The company demonstrates stronger trend consistency, with record profitability and expanding margins even amid a soft residential backdrop, supported by a diversified end-market mix and ongoing acquisition catalysts. In contrast, MTH faces a more uncertain near-term path, with declining earnings, a shrinking backlog, and margin pressure weighing on its relative positioning. While MTH's discounted valuation and buyback program present a potential recovery case, the current evidence favors IBP on stability, catalysts, and momentum. This is a probabilistic assessment of relative positioning rather than a definitive prediction or investment recommendation.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is IBP is a Hold and MTH is a Hold.
IBP in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026
The 10-day moving average for IBP crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on IBP as a result. In 60 of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for IBP just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where IBP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
IBP moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.87% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where IBP advanced for three days, in 229 of 307 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for IBP moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 31 of the 41 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 76%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 50 of 67 cases where IBP's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where IBP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
IBP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for IBP entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. IBP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: IBP's P/B Ratio (9.146) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.910). P/E Ratio (23.612) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.900) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.816) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
MTH saw its Stochastic Oscillator recovers from the overbought zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for MTH moved out of overbought territory on November 09, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock and investors may want to consider selling or taking a defensive position. A.I.dvisor looked at 57 similar instances where the indicator exited the overbought zone. In 47 of the 57 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 82%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MTH moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 43 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 32 of the 43 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 74%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MTH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
MTH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for MTH entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MTH as a result. In 53 of 81 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MTH just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where MTH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 31 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
MTH moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MTH crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Following a +8.21% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MTH advanced for three days, in 200 of 291 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 43 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MTH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 45 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.877) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (14.089) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.090) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.028) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.814) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 68 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MTH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
IBP | MTH | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 73 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 83 Overvalued | 45 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 56 | 68 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 27 | 80 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 43 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 64 | 9 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTH's Valuation (45) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for IBP (83) in the Building Products industry. This means that MTH’s stock grew somewhat faster than IBP’s over the last 12 months.
IBP's Profit vs Risk Rating (56) in the Building Products industry is in the same range as MTH (68) in the Homebuilding industry. This means that IBP’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
IBP's SMR Rating (27) in the Building Products industry is somewhat better than the same rating for MTH (80) in the Homebuilding industry. This means that IBP’s stock grew somewhat faster than MTH’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's Price Growth Rating (43) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as IBP (46) in the Building Products industry. This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to IBP’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for IBP (64) in the Building Products industry. This means that MTH’s stock grew somewhat faster than IBP’s over the last 12 months.
| IBP | MTH | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 74% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 82% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 65% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 60% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 69% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 75% | 20 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 70% | 6 days ago 71% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 74% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
IBP’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while MTH’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- IBP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MTH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
IBP’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MTH’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- IBP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- MTH’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
IBP (@Homebuilding) experienced а -0.00% price change this week, while MTH (@Homebuilding) price change was +0.25% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -6.47%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.55%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.32%.
Reported Earning Dates
IBP is expected to report earnings on Feb 24, 2027.
MTH is expected to report earnings on Feb 03, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-6.47% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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IBP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, IBP has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if IBP jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.
MTH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTH has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTH jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
| ETFs / NAME | Price $ | Chg $ | Chg % |
| NLSI | 55.69 | N/A | N/A |
| NEOS Long/Short Equity Income ETF (NLSI) | |||
| REIX | 30.38 | -0.01 | -0.04% |
| NYLIM CBRE Real Estate & Infrastructure ETF (REIX) | |||
| GSEE | 62.42 | -0.49 | -0.78% |
| Goldman Sachs MarketBeta Emerging Markets Equity ETF (GSEE) | |||
| ABFL | 76.60 | -0.60 | -0.78% |
| Abacus FCF Leaders ETF (ABFL) | |||
| NULG | 104.29 | -0.90 | -0.86% |
| Nuveen ESG Large-Cap Growth ETF (NULG) | |||