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IBP vs TOL
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Installed Building Products (IBP) vs. Toll Brothers (TOL) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Tickeron AI Verdict: Based on relative momentum, trend consistency, and analyst positioning, the AI currently favors TOL (Toll Brothers) over IBP (Installed Building Products).
- Both companies are housing-linked, but they occupy different market positions: IBP installs insulation and complementary building products, while TOL is a luxury homebuilder.
- IBP is contending with residential softness partially offset by strong heavy-commercial growth, whereas TOL is showing resilient order activity despite margin compression.
- Relative performance diverges sharply: TOL has held up better over the trailing year, while IBP has declined amid weaker new-residential demand.
- Analyst sentiment leans more constructively toward TOL, which carries a consensus "Buy" rating, while coverage on IBP is more mixed.
- For more context, explore IBP Major News and IBP Today's Price Move, plus TOL Major News and TOL Today's Price Move.
- To see how AI trading systems are positioned across the market, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Installed Building Products (IBP) and Toll Brothers (TOL) both derive revenue from the U.S. housing market, yet they represent very different links in the homebuilding chain. IBP is a leading installer of insulation and complementary products for residential and commercial builders, while TOL is a national builder focused on luxury and move-up homes. This stock comparison is relevant for investors weighing two distinct ways to gain exposure to housing: a diversified installer with growing commercial exposure versus a premium homebuilder sensitive to mortgage rates and affluent buyer demand. Understanding their relative performance and market positioning can help traders and longer-term investors assess where current momentum and fundamentals appear stronger.
IBP Overview and Recent Performance
Installed Building Products (IBP) is one of the largest installers of new residential insulation in the United States, alongside complementary products such as waterproofing, garage doors, and rain gutters. In recent weeks, the stock has traded well below its prior-year levels, reflecting investor caution around softer new-residential demand. Recent quarterly results showed consolidated revenue declines driven by lower job volumes, while gross and adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margins came under pressure from reduced volume, higher insurance costs, and weather-related disruptions. A bright spot has been commercial work, particularly heavy commercial, which has grown at a double-digit rate and helped offset residential weakness. The company has continued acquiring smaller installers to expand its footprint and recently closed an incremental term loan, signaling ongoing capital deployment. Mixed analyst coverage, including both new "Buy" and "Hold" initiations, underscores the uncertainty surrounding the near-term residential outlook.
TOL Overview and Recent Performance
Toll Brothers (TOL) is a leading builder of luxury and move-up homes operating across a broad geographic footprint. Recent market activity has been comparatively constructive, with the stock holding up better than many housing peers over the trailing year. In its most recent quarters, TOL beat consensus estimates on both revenue and earnings per share (EPS), helped by a favorable mix that lifted average delivered prices even as unit deliveries declined. Net signed contracts rose year over year, a positive demand signal, while the backlog remained substantial at roughly $6.3 billion. Profitability has been pressured, however, with home sales gross margin declining and higher inventory impairments and selling, general, and administrative (SG&A) costs weighing on results. The company has continued returning capital through share repurchases and a dividend increase, and it maintains a strong liquidity position. Several major firms have reiterated "Buy" ratings, and the consensus analyst stance is a "Buy."
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron operates a broad ecosystem of AI trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, each built around its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance history, and set of securities. Because not every bot suits every market regime, Tickeron curates only the most relevant systems into its Trending AI Robots section. These featured bots span a range of approaches, from short-term swing strategies to longer-horizon trend-following models, and many report detailed statistics on win rates, trade frequency, and historical performance. Exploring this section lets traders compare how different AI systems are currently positioned across the market and identify bots aligned with their own risk preferences and time horizons. For those interested in how algorithmic approaches are handling names like IBP and TOL, the Trending AI Robots page offers a practical starting point.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The core contrast between these two stocks lies in business model and growth drivers. IBP is a fragmented-market consolidator that combines organic demand with a steady acquisition strategy, giving it exposure to both residential and commercial construction. TOL, by contrast, is a pure-play luxury homebuilder whose fortunes are closely tied to mortgage rates, land availability, and high-income buyer confidence. On momentum, TOL has shown greater relative strength recently, buoyed by order growth and estimate beats, while IBP has been weighed down by declining residential volumes. Risk profiles also differ: IBP faces input-cost and insurance inflation alongside cyclical housing exposure, whereas TOL contends with margin compression, inventory impairments, and rate sensitivity. From a sentiment standpoint, TOL enjoys a more uniformly bullish analyst consensus, while IBP's coverage reflects a more balanced mix of Buy and Hold ratings. Overall, TOL currently presents firmer demand signals, while IBP offers diversification through its expanding commercial segment.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as relative price momentum, trend consistency, order activity, and analyst positioning, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward TOL over IBP. TOL has demonstrated more stable relative performance, improving contract volumes, and a more favorable consensus outlook, while IBP is navigating a softer residential backdrop that has pressured revenue, margins, and share price. That said, this is a probabilistic assessment rather than a definitive forecast: IBP's commercial growth and acquisition engine could support a recovery if residential conditions stabilize. Investors should weigh these trade-offs against their own objectives and risk tolerance.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is IBP is a Hold and TOL is a Buy.
IBP in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026
The 10-day moving average for IBP crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 04, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on IBP as a result. In 60 of 80 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for IBP just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where IBP's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 34 of 47 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
IBP moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +3.87% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where IBP advanced for three days, in 229 of 307 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for IBP moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 31 of the 41 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 76%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 50 of 67 cases where IBP's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 75%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where IBP declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 70%.
IBP broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for IBP entered a downward trend on October 23, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. IBP’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 64 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 83 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: IBP's P/B Ratio (9.146) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.910). P/E Ratio (23.612) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.900) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.816) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
TOL in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026
The 10-day moving average for TOL crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 21, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on TOL as a result. In 59 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for TOL just turned positive on October 15, 2026. Looking at past instances where TOL's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 41 of 55 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
TOL moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +6.29% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where TOL advanced for three days, in 217 of 314 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for TOL moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 44 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 24 of the 44 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 55%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 39 of 66 cases where TOL's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where TOL declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 60%.
TOL broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 35 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 67, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 41 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. TOL’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 58 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 70 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (1.648) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (12.205) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.880) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.007) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.184) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
IBP | TOL | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 31 | 25 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 83 Overvalued | 70 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 56 | 35 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 27 | 58 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 41 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 64 | 19 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | n/a |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
TOL's Valuation (70) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as IBP (83) in the Building Products industry. This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to IBP’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Profit vs Risk Rating (35) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as IBP (56) in the Building Products industry. This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to IBP’s over the last 12 months.
IBP's SMR Rating (27) in the Building Products industry is in the same range as TOL (58) in the Homebuilding industry. This means that IBP’s stock grew similarly to TOL’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's Price Growth Rating (41) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as IBP (46) in the Building Products industry. This means that TOL’s stock grew similarly to IBP’s over the last 12 months.
TOL's P/E Growth Rating (19) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for IBP (64) in the Building Products industry. This means that TOL’s stock grew somewhat faster than IBP’s over the last 12 months.
| IBP | TOL | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 55% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 59% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 75% | 2 days ago 69% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 72% | 2 days ago 75% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | 2 days ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 76% | 2 days ago 68% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 75% | 10 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 70% | 6 days ago 60% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 70% | 2 days ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 2 days ago 74% | N/A |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
IBP’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while TOL’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- IBP’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- TOL’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
IBP’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while TOL’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- IBP’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 5 bearish.
- TOL’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
IBP (@Homebuilding) experienced а -0.00% price change this week, while TOL (@Homebuilding) price change was +1.98% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -6.47%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.55%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.32%.
Reported Earning Dates
IBP is expected to report earnings on Feb 24, 2027.
TOL is expected to report earnings on Dec 14, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-6.47% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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IBP and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, IBP has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 70% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if IBP jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.
| 1 Day | |||
|---|---|---|---|
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| TABD | 24.33 | N/A | N/A |
| Transamerica Bond Active ETF | |||
| JPSE | 57.38 | -0.18 | -0.31% |
| JPMorgan Diversified Return U.S. Small Cap Equity ETF (JPSE) | |||
| OVM | 20.93 | -0.12 | -0.57% |
| Overlay Shares Municipal Bond ETF (OVM) | |||
| DSI | 139.80 | -1.31 | -0.93% |
| iShares ESG MSCI KLD 400 ETF (DSI) | |||
| GASZ | 19.76 | -0.24 | -1.22% |
| Corgi Natural Gas Power & Turbines ETF (GASZ) | |||