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ITW vs OTIS
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Illinois Tool Works (ITW) vs. Otis Worldwide (OTIS) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- ITW is a diversified industrial manufacturer posting record operating margins but only modest organic revenue growth.
- OTIS is the world's largest elevator and escalator maker, increasingly driven by a high-margin service business that now accounts for about 93% of segment operating profit.
- ITW's relative performance has been supported by disciplined margin execution and shareholder returns, though recent analyst downgrades point to valuation concerns.
- OTIS continues to face new-equipment weakness, especially in China, while modernization and service demand remains a bright spot.
- The two stocks carry different risk profiles: broad cyclical industrial exposure for ITW versus construction and property-market exposure for OTIS.
Introduction
Illinois Tool Works and Otis Worldwide are both large-cap industrial names, yet they operate through fundamentally different business models. This stock comparison is designed for investors and traders weighing a diversified, margin-focused manufacturer against a service-heavy equipment leader with recurring revenue. Because the two companies respond to different economic cycles, their relative performance can diverge even when broad market conditions are similar. Examining recent market activity, growth drivers, and risk factors side by side can help clarify which profile fits a given portfolio, whether the priority is steady capital returns, cyclical upside, or defensive cash-flow consistency.
ITW Overview and Recent Performance
Illinois Tool Works is a diversified industrial manufacturer organized across seven segments, including automotive OEM (original equipment manufacturer), food equipment, test and measurement, welding, construction products, polymers and fluids, and specialty products. In its most recent quarterly report, the company highlighted total revenue growth of roughly 4% with organic growth near 1.3%, alongside a record operating margin of about 26.5%. Management has emphasized enterprise initiatives that contributed more than 100 basis points (bps, or hundredths of a percentage point) of margin improvement and pointed to earnings per share (EPS) guidance implying mid-single-digit growth for the coming year.
Sentiment around ITW has been mixed in recent weeks. The company announced its 62nd consecutive annual dividend increase and plans for substantial share repurchases, reinforcing its reputation for consistent capital returns. At the same time, several sell-side firms have downgraded the stock, citing limited upside relative to the group given the pace of earnings improvement. Construction products and certain European markets have remained soft, tempering top-line momentum even as margin discipline stays intact.
OTIS Overview and Recent Performance
Otis Worldwide is the largest global elevator and escalator supplier, holding roughly 18% of the world market. Its business spans new equipment installation, ongoing maintenance and repair, and modernization of an installed base exceeding two million units. In its latest results, Otis reported flat full-year organic sales, with service growth offsetting a decline in new equipment. Adjusted EPS rose about 6% year over year, while the service segment delivered margins near 25.5%, its strongest level in recent history.
Recent market activity has reflected a tug-of-war between strengths and headwinds. Modernization orders accelerated sharply, and the backlog grew at a double-digit rate, signaling durable demand. However, new equipment sales in China fell more than 20% in the latest quarter, and tariff-related cost pressures weighed on new equipment margins, which compressed to roughly 3.6%. The company has guided toward low-to-mid single-digit organic growth for the coming year as the new equipment market stabilizes.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two companies lies in their revenue models. ITW generates earnings across a broad industrial base, with margins protected by enterprise initiatives and pricing discipline rather than rapid top-line growth. OTIS, by contrast, leans on a recurring service flywheel: once elevators are installed, maintenance and modernization generate long-dated, higher-margin revenue that cushions swings in new equipment demand.
Growth drivers also differ. ITW's upside depends on a cyclical recovery in areas such as construction products and test and measurement, plus continued margin expansion. OTIS's growth is tied to its modernization backlog and service portfolio expansion, while its largest near-term drag is China's property market. From a momentum standpoint, both stocks have seen tempered sentiment in recent weeks, but for different reasons: ITW faces valuation and multiple-related downgrades, while OTIS has contended with new-equipment weakness and cautious guidance despite service strength.
Risk profiles reflect these differences. ITW carries diversified but cyclical exposure across many end markets, while OTIS is more concentrated in construction and real estate activity, with meaningful geographic sensitivity to China. For investors, the trade-off is between a broadly diversified industrial compounder and a service-oriented leader navigating a transitional new-equipment cycle.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, margin stability, and the relative clarity of near-term catalysts, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward OTIS at present. The service segment's durable, high-margin recurring revenue and a rapidly growing modernization backlog provide a more predictable earnings trajectory, even as new equipment remains weak. ITW's margin execution is strong, but its modest organic growth and recent valuation-driven downgrades create a less clearly defined near-term catalyst. This assessment is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting the balance of trend strength, stability, and positioning across both names.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is ITW is a StrongBuy and OTIS is a StrongBuy.
ITW in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026
ITW moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 24 of 40 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ITW's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 7 of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 29%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ITW as a result. In 51 of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 57%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ITW just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where ITW's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 23 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 48%.
Following a +1.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ITW advanced for three days, in 168 of 328 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
ITW may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 4 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ITW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 41%.
The Aroon Indicator for ITW entered a downward trend on October 07, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ITW’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ITW's P/B Ratio (27.060) is slightly higher than the industry average of (4.503). P/E Ratio (24.862) is within average values for comparable stocks, (38.302). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.543) is also within normal values, averaging (1.879). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.029) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.699) is also within normal values, averaging (186.943).
OTIS in upward trend: price rose above 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026
OTIS moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend. In 32 of 53 similar past instances, the stock price increased further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 09, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on OTIS as a result. In 42 of 91 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 46%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for OTIS just turned positive on October 07, 2026. Looking at past instances where OTIS's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 19 of 49 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 39%.
Following a +3.21% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where OTIS advanced for three days, in 170 of 338 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator demonstrated that the stock has entered the overbought zone. This may point to a price pull-back soon.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 6 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where OTIS declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 53%.
OTIS broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 14, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
The Aroon Indicator for OTIS entered a downward trend on October 13, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 19 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 42 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (-4.773) is normal, around the industry mean (4.503). P/E Ratio (18.479) is within average values for comparable stocks, (38.302). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.156) is also within normal values, averaging (1.879). Dividend Yield (0.024) settles around the average of (0.029) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (1.809) is also within normal values, averaging (186.943).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 56 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. OTIS’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 65 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 100 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. OTIS’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock worse than average.
ITW | OTIS | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 33 | 30 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 95 Overvalued | 42 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 36 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 13 | 19 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 47 | 56 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 27 | 70 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 85 | 65 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
OTIS's Valuation (42) in the null industry is somewhat better than the same rating for ITW (95) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that OTIS’s stock grew somewhat faster than ITW’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's Profit vs Risk Rating (36) in the Industrial Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for OTIS (100) in the null industry. This means that ITW’s stock grew somewhat faster than OTIS’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's SMR Rating (13) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as OTIS (19) in the null industry. This means that ITW’s stock grew similarly to OTIS’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's Price Growth Rating (47) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as OTIS (56) in the null industry. This means that ITW’s stock grew similarly to OTIS’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's P/E Growth Rating (27) in the Industrial Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for OTIS (70) in the null industry. This means that ITW’s stock grew somewhat faster than OTIS’s over the last 12 months.
| ITW | OTIS | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 29% | 1 day ago 38% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 49% | 1 day ago 53% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 57% | 1 day ago 46% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 48% | 1 day ago 39% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 53% | 1 day ago 48% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 51% | 1 day ago 48% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 5 days ago 51% | 5 days ago 50% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 21 days ago 41% | 21 days ago 53% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 59% | 1 day ago 57% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 50% | 1 day ago 47% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
ITW’s FA Score shows that 2 FA rating(s) are green while OTIS’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- ITW’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
- OTIS’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
ITW’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while OTIS’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- ITW’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 3 bearish.
- OTIS’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
ITW (@Industrial Machinery) experienced а +3.25% price change this week, while OTIS (@Industrial Machinery) price change was +6.49% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Industrial Machinery industry was -8.84%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -13.95%, and the average quarterly price growth was -19.40%.
Reported Earning Dates
ITW is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
OTIS is expected to report earnings on Oct 28, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Industrial Machinery (-8.84% weekly)The industry makes and maintains machines for consumers, the industry, and most other companies. While it has traditionally been categorized as heavy industry, some smaller companies are also branching into the light category. The industry is pivotal in providing the equipment for production in businesses like agriculture, mining, industry and construction, gas, electricity and water utilities. It also supplies supporting equipment for almost all sectors of the economy, such as equipment for heating, and air conditioning of buildings. Illinois Tool Works Inc., Parker-Hannifin Corporation and Rockwell Automation Inc are some of the major U.S. companies operating in this industry.
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ITW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ITW has been closely correlated with IR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ITW jumps, then IR could also see price increases.
OTIS and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, OTIS has been closely correlated with ROP. These tickers have moved in lockstep 69% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if OTIS jumps, then ROP could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To OTIS | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| OTIS | 100% | +1.45% | ||
| ROP - OTIS | 69% Closely correlated | +3.84% | ||
| SPXC - OTIS | 59% Loosely correlated | -1.36% | ||
| ITW - OTIS | 57% Loosely correlated | +1.78% | ||
| GGG - OTIS | 54% Loosely correlated | +0.42% | ||
| AOS - OTIS | 52% Loosely correlated | +1.47% | ||
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