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IR vs ITW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Ingersoll Rand (IR) vs. Illinois Tool Works (ITW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- IR (Ingersoll Rand) is posting solid revenue growth but is experiencing margin compression, while ITW (Illinois Tool Works) recently delivered its most profitable quarter in company history.
- ITW's diversified seven-segment model and enterprise initiatives are driving operating margin expansion, whereas Ingersoll Rand faces pricing and cost pressure, particularly in China.
- Both companies raised full-year guidance in recent weeks, but ITW lifted both top- and bottom-line expectations while IR raised revenue guidance against a tighter margin backdrop.
- ITW offers a more shareholder-friendly capital return profile, including a dividend increase and a large share buyback authorization, while IR maintains an active buyback and acquisition program.
- The two names represent contrasting risk profiles: IR is more growth- and acquisition-oriented, while ITW is a steadier, margin-led compounder with a lower beta.
Introduction
Industrial stocks are often grouped together by investors, yet two prominent names in the space, IR and ITW, occupy notably different positions in the market. Ingersoll Rand and Illinois Tool Works both supply mission-critical equipment to a broad industrial customer base, but their business models, growth drivers, and margin profiles diverge in ways that matter for stock selection. This stock comparison is relevant for traders evaluating relative performance and market positioning, as well as for long-term investors weighing growth-oriented industrial exposure against a steadier, capital-return-focused compounder. Understanding these contrasts can clarify which profile better fits a given portfolio objective in the current environment.
IR Overview and Recent Performance
IR, or Ingersoll Rand, is a diversified industrial company providing mission-critical flow creation and life sciences and industrial solutions under more than 80 brands. Its operations are organized around two segments: Industrial Technologies and Services (ITS) and Precision and Science Technologies (PST). Recent market activity has highlighted the company's revenue momentum alongside emerging margin pressure. In its most recent quarterly results, total revenue rose roughly 8% year over year, supported by mid-single-digit organic growth, acquisition contributions, and favorable currency translation. Total orders increased about 5%, with management noting strengthening order momentum across short- and medium-cycle demand.
However, sentiment has been tempered by a decline in adjusted EBITDA margin, which contracted about 160 basis points (a basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point), reflecting challenges in offsetting inflation with pricing, particularly in China, along with commercial investments and higher corporate costs. Free cash flow generation improved, and the company raised its full-year revenue growth outlook while maintaining a disciplined balance sheet. This mix of healthy top-line growth and tightening margins has kept the stock's relative performance mixed in recent weeks.
ITW Overview and Recent Performance
ITW, or Illinois Tool Works, is a Fortune 300 multi-industrial manufacturer generating roughly $16 billion in annual revenue across seven segments, including Welding, Test & Measurement and Electronics, Automotive OEM, Food Equipment, Construction Products, and others. The company leans on its proprietary business model and enterprise initiatives to drive consistent organic growth and best-in-class margins. Recent performance has been marked by record profitability: the company reported its most profitable quarter in history, with revenue up about 6% year over year on roughly 4.5% organic growth and operating margin expanding about 40 basis points to 26.7%.
Growth was led by capital expenditure (CapEx)-related segments, with notable strength in Welding, Electronics, and Polymers & Fluids, partially offset by softer automotive production and foodservice demand. The company raised both its full-year earnings and revenue guidance, increased its dividend by 7%, and authorized a substantial new share repurchase program. Free cash flow rose sharply, with conversion expected to exceed 100% of net income for the year. This combination of margin expansion, strong cash returns, and raised guidance has supported a more favorable sentiment shift in recent weeks.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most meaningful contrast between these two stocks lies in how they generate returns. IR pursues a more growth-oriented, acquisition-heavy strategy, using deals to broaden its flow creation and life sciences footprint while investing aggressively in commercial capabilities. This supports faster top-line expansion but has introduced near-term margin compression and integration complexity. ITW, by contrast, emphasizes organic growth, enterprise-led margin efficiency, and disciplined capital returns, resulting in steadier profitability and a lower beta (a measure of volatility relative to the broader market).
On growth drivers, ITW is benefiting from CapEx-related and semiconductor demand, while IR is leveraged to compressors, vacuum, and life sciences markets. Risk profiles differ as well: IR carries greater exposure to China pricing dynamics and acquisition integration, whereas ITW faces cyclical softness in automotive and foodservice end markets. From a market sentiment standpoint, ITW's raised guidance, dividend hike, and buyback program have reinforced its positioning as a dependable compounder, while IR's margin pressure has kept sentiment more measured despite solid revenue growth.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, margin trajectory, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward ITW in the current environment. The company's record profitability, expanding margins, raised guidance, and robust capital-return program point to a steadier and more consistent trend, with fewer near-term margin headwinds than its peer. That said, IR offers a more growth-accented profile that could command attention if margin pressures ease and acquisition synergies materialize. The AI's preference is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting the differing risk-reward profiles each stock presents under present market conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is IR is a StrongBuy and ITW is a StrongBuy.
IR | ITW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 36 | 34 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 65 Fair valued | 83 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 60 | 43 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 73 | 13 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 48 | 49 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 91 | 32 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 13 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
IR's Valuation (65) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry is in the same range as ITW (83) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that IR’s stock grew similarly to ITW’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's Profit vs Risk Rating (43) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as IR (60) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry. This means that ITW’s stock grew similarly to IR’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's SMR Rating (13) in the Industrial Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for IR (73) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry. This means that ITW’s stock grew somewhat faster than IR’s over the last 12 months.
IR's Price Growth Rating (48) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry is in the same range as ITW (49) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that IR’s stock grew similarly to ITW’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's P/E Growth Rating (32) in the Industrial Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for IR (91) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry. This means that ITW’s stock grew somewhat faster than IR’s over the last 12 months.
| IR | ITW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 60% | 3 days ago 50% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 52% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 38% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 56% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 54% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 50% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | 6 days ago 52% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 26 days ago 59% | 12 days ago 41% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 3 days ago 53% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 66% | 3 days ago 40% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
IR’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while ITW’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- IR’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- ITW’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
IR’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ITW’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- IR’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
- ITW’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
IR (@Industrial Machinery) experienced а +3.52% price change this week, while ITW (@Industrial Machinery) price change was +0.46% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Industrial Machinery industry was +1.06%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +0.03%, and the average quarterly price growth was +3.86%.
Reported Earning Dates
IR is expected to report earnings on Nov 04, 2026.
ITW is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Industrial Machinery (+1.06% weekly)The industry makes and maintains machines for consumers, the industry, and most other companies. While it has traditionally been categorized as heavy industry, some smaller companies are also branching into the light category. The industry is pivotal in providing the equipment for production in businesses like agriculture, mining, industry and construction, gas, electricity and water utilities. It also supplies supporting equipment for almost all sectors of the economy, such as equipment for heating, and air conditioning of buildings. Illinois Tool Works Inc., Parker-Hannifin Corporation and Rockwell Automation Inc are some of the major U.S. companies operating in this industry.
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ITW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ITW has been closely correlated with IR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ITW jumps, then IR could also see price increases.