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IR vs ITW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Ingersoll Rand (IR) vs. Illinois Tool Works (ITW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- IR (Ingersoll Rand) is posting solid revenue growth but is experiencing margin compression, while ITW (Illinois Tool Works) recently delivered its most profitable quarter in company history.
- ITW's diversified seven-segment model and enterprise initiatives are driving operating margin expansion, whereas Ingersoll Rand faces pricing and cost pressure, particularly in China.
- Both companies raised full-year guidance in recent weeks, but ITW lifted both top- and bottom-line expectations while IR raised revenue guidance against a tighter margin backdrop.
- ITW offers a more shareholder-friendly capital return profile, including a dividend increase and a large share buyback authorization, while IR maintains an active buyback and acquisition program.
- The two names represent contrasting risk profiles: IR is more growth- and acquisition-oriented, while ITW is a steadier, margin-led compounder with a lower beta.
Introduction
Industrial stocks are often grouped together by investors, yet two prominent names in the space, IR and ITW, occupy notably different positions in the market. Ingersoll Rand and Illinois Tool Works both supply mission-critical equipment to a broad industrial customer base, but their business models, growth drivers, and margin profiles diverge in ways that matter for stock selection. This stock comparison is relevant for traders evaluating relative performance and market positioning, as well as for long-term investors weighing growth-oriented industrial exposure against a steadier, capital-return-focused compounder. Understanding these contrasts can clarify which profile better fits a given portfolio objective in the current environment.
IR Overview and Recent Performance
IR, or Ingersoll Rand, is a diversified industrial company providing mission-critical flow creation and life sciences and industrial solutions under more than 80 brands. Its operations are organized around two segments: Industrial Technologies and Services (ITS) and Precision and Science Technologies (PST). Recent market activity has highlighted the company's revenue momentum alongside emerging margin pressure. In its most recent quarterly results, total revenue rose roughly 8% year over year, supported by mid-single-digit organic growth, acquisition contributions, and favorable currency translation. Total orders increased about 5%, with management noting strengthening order momentum across short- and medium-cycle demand.
However, sentiment has been tempered by a decline in adjusted EBITDA margin, which contracted about 160 basis points (a basis point is one-hundredth of a percentage point), reflecting challenges in offsetting inflation with pricing, particularly in China, along with commercial investments and higher corporate costs. Free cash flow generation improved, and the company raised its full-year revenue growth outlook while maintaining a disciplined balance sheet. This mix of healthy top-line growth and tightening margins has kept the stock's relative performance mixed in recent weeks.
ITW Overview and Recent Performance
ITW, or Illinois Tool Works, is a Fortune 300 multi-industrial manufacturer generating roughly $16 billion in annual revenue across seven segments, including Welding, Test & Measurement and Electronics, Automotive OEM, Food Equipment, Construction Products, and others. The company leans on its proprietary business model and enterprise initiatives to drive consistent organic growth and best-in-class margins. Recent performance has been marked by record profitability: the company reported its most profitable quarter in history, with revenue up about 6% year over year on roughly 4.5% organic growth and operating margin expanding about 40 basis points to 26.7%.
Growth was led by capital expenditure (CapEx)-related segments, with notable strength in Welding, Electronics, and Polymers & Fluids, partially offset by softer automotive production and foodservice demand. The company raised both its full-year earnings and revenue guidance, increased its dividend by 7%, and authorized a substantial new share repurchase program. Free cash flow rose sharply, with conversion expected to exceed 100% of net income for the year. This combination of margin expansion, strong cash returns, and raised guidance has supported a more favorable sentiment shift in recent weeks.
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Head-to-Head Comparison
The most meaningful contrast between these two stocks lies in how they generate returns. IR pursues a more growth-oriented, acquisition-heavy strategy, using deals to broaden its flow creation and life sciences footprint while investing aggressively in commercial capabilities. This supports faster top-line expansion but has introduced near-term margin compression and integration complexity. ITW, by contrast, emphasizes organic growth, enterprise-led margin efficiency, and disciplined capital returns, resulting in steadier profitability and a lower beta (a measure of volatility relative to the broader market).
On growth drivers, ITW is benefiting from CapEx-related and semiconductor demand, while IR is leveraged to compressors, vacuum, and life sciences markets. Risk profiles differ as well: IR carries greater exposure to China pricing dynamics and acquisition integration, whereas ITW faces cyclical softness in automotive and foodservice end markets. From a market sentiment standpoint, ITW's raised guidance, dividend hike, and buyback program have reinforced its positioning as a dependable compounder, while IR's margin pressure has kept sentiment more measured despite solid revenue growth.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as trend consistency, margin trajectory, catalysts, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward ITW in the current environment. The company's record profitability, expanding margins, raised guidance, and robust capital-return program point to a steadier and more consistent trend, with fewer near-term margin headwinds than its peer. That said, IR offers a more growth-accented profile that could command attention if margin pressures ease and acquisition synergies materialize. The AI's preference is probabilistic rather than definitive, reflecting the differing risk-reward profiles each stock presents under present market conditions.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is IR is a Hold and ITW is a Hold.
IR saw its Stochastic Oscillator peaks and leaves the overbought zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for IR moved out of overbought territory on October 14, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock and investors may want to consider selling or taking a defensive position. A.I.dvisor looked at 63 similar instances where the indicator exited the overbought zone. In 38 of the 63 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 60%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where IR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Oscillator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where IR's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 24 of 35 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on September 23, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on IR as a result. In 51 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for IR just turned positive on September 22, 2026. Looking at past instances where IR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 36 of 50 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
IR moved above its 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for IR crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 9 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 64%.
Following a +1.40% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where IR advanced for three days, in 215 of 325 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 175 of 274 cases where IR Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 64%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. IR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 60 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 65 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (2.965) is normal, around the industry mean (4.583). P/E Ratio (32.008) is within average values for comparable stocks, (38.005). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.619) is also within normal values, averaging (1.879). Dividend Yield (0.001) settles around the average of (0.032) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.547) is also within normal values, averaging (186.943).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 86 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
ITW in upward trend: price may ascend as a result of having broken its lower Bollinger Band on September 30, 2026
ITW may jump back above the lower band and head toward the middle band. Traders may consider buying the stock or exploring call options. In 21 of 32 cases where ITW's price broke its lower Bollinger Band, its price rose further in the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The RSI Indicator points to a transition from a downward trend to an upward trend -- in cases where ITW's RSI Indicator exited the oversold zone, 10 of 24 resulted in an increase in price. Tickeron's analysis proposes that the odds of a continued upward trend are 42%.
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ITW as a result. In 56 of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ITW just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where ITW's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 26 of 48 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
Following a +1.04% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ITW advanced for three days, in 168 of 328 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 51%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The Stochastic Oscillator has been in the overbought zone for 2 days. Expect a price pull-back in the near future.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ITW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 41%.
The Aroon Indicator for ITW entered a downward trend on October 07, 2026. This could indicate a strong downward move is ahead for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 25 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 37 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 75, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 47 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ITW’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 85 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 95 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ITW's P/B Ratio (26.795) is slightly higher than the industry average of (4.583). P/E Ratio (24.618) is within average values for comparable stocks, (38.005). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.543) is also within normal values, averaging (1.879). Dividend Yield (0.025) settles around the average of (0.032) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.699) is also within normal values, averaging (186.943).
IR | ITW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 41 | 43 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 65 Fair valued | 95 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 60 | 37 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 73 | 13 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 47 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 86 | 25 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 85 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
IR's Valuation (65) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry is in the same range as ITW (95) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that IR’s stock grew similarly to ITW’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's Profit vs Risk Rating (37) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as IR (60) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry. This means that ITW’s stock grew similarly to IR’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's SMR Rating (13) in the Industrial Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for IR (73) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry. This means that ITW’s stock grew somewhat faster than IR’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's Price Growth Rating (47) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as IR (49) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry. This means that ITW’s stock grew similarly to IR’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's P/E Growth Rating (25) in the Industrial Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for IR (86) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry. This means that ITW’s stock grew somewhat faster than IR’s over the last 12 months.
| IR | ITW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 69% | 4 days ago 42% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 60% | 4 days ago 54% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 60% | 4 days ago 62% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 72% | 4 days ago 54% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 61% | 4 days ago 54% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 65% | 4 days ago 50% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 8 days ago 66% | 4 days ago 51% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 59% | 20 days ago 41% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | N/A | 4 days ago 66% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 64% | 4 days ago 49% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
IR’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while ITW’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- IR’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- ITW’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
IR’s TA Score shows that 7 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ITW’s TA Score has 5 bullish TA indicator(s).
- IR’s TA Score: 7 bullish, 2 bearish.
- ITW’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 3 bearish.
Price Growth
IR (@Industrial Machinery) experienced а -1.23% price change this week, while ITW (@Industrial Machinery) price change was +3.09% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Industrial Machinery industry was -8.78%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -13.93%, and the average quarterly price growth was -19.27%.
Reported Earning Dates
IR is expected to report earnings on Oct 29, 2026.
ITW is expected to report earnings on Oct 27, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Industrial Machinery (-8.78% weekly)The industry makes and maintains machines for consumers, the industry, and most other companies. While it has traditionally been categorized as heavy industry, some smaller companies are also branching into the light category. The industry is pivotal in providing the equipment for production in businesses like agriculture, mining, industry and construction, gas, electricity and water utilities. It also supplies supporting equipment for almost all sectors of the economy, such as equipment for heating, and air conditioning of buildings. Illinois Tool Works Inc., Parker-Hannifin Corporation and Rockwell Automation Inc are some of the major U.S. companies operating in this industry.
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ITW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ITW has been closely correlated with IR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ITW jumps, then IR could also see price increases.