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IR vs ITW
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Ingersoll Rand (IR) vs. Illinois Tool Works (ITW) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- IR is a smaller, acquisition-driven industrial focused on flow creation, compression, and life sciences, while ITW is a larger, diversified manufacturer spanning seven distinct segments.
- Both companies beat earnings estimates in recent quarters, but ITW reported record profitability and raised guidance, whereas IR posted stronger top-line growth with some margin compression.
- ITW combines a 7% dividend increase with a $6 billion buyback authorization, while IR has leaned more heavily on mergers and acquisitions (M&A) for growth.
- Analyst sentiment differs meaningfully: IR carries a consensus "Strong Buy," while ITW has seen recent downgrades and price-target reductions.
- Risk profiles diverge, with IR exposed to pricing pressure in China and integration risk, and ITW facing softness in automotive OEM (original equipment manufacturer) and food equipment markets.
- For deeper context on each name, explore IR Major News and IR Today's Price Move, as well as ITW Major News and ITW Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated strategies are positioning across the market, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Industrial stocks often trade as a group, yet IR (Ingersoll Rand) and ITW (Illinois Tool Works) represent two very different ways to gain exposure to the sector. One is a growth-through-acquisition flow-creation specialist, while the other is a diversified, margin-focused manufacturer rewarding shareholders with rising dividends and buybacks. For investors weighing quality versus growth, or traders monitoring relative performance and momentum, this stock comparison highlights how two well-known industrial names are positioned in the current market environment. Understanding their distinct business models, recent momentum, and risk factors can help clarify which profile aligns with a given strategy.
IR Overview and Recent Performance
IR, Ingersoll Rand Inc., provides mission-critical flow creation and industrial technologies, including air compressors, pumps, vacuum, and blower systems, alongside life sciences and precision technologies under more than 80 brands. Recent market activity has reflected a mixed but generally constructive picture. The company has delivered consecutive earnings beats, with second-quarter revenue rising roughly 9% year over year and organic revenue up about 4%. Orders also advanced, supported by recovering compressor demand in North America.
Sentiment has been tempered, however, by margin pressure. Adjusted EBITDA (earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation, and amortization) margin has narrowed, reflecting pricing headwinds in China, higher corporate costs, and continued commercial investment. Management has nonetheless reaffirmed and modestly raised revenue guidance, and the stock has outperformed the broader market over the recent year-to-date stretch. Wall Street's consensus view leans optimistic, with a "Strong Buy" rating and a price target comfortably above recent trading levels.
ITW Overview and Recent Performance
ITW, Illinois Tool Works Inc., is a diversified manufacturer operating across seven segments, including Automotive OEM, Food Equipment, Welding, Test & Measurement and Electronics, Polymers & Fluids, Construction Products, and Specialty Products. Recent quarters have shown accelerating momentum: second-quarter revenue rose about 6% with organic growth near 4.5%, and the company reported its most profitable quarter on record, with operating margin expanding to roughly 26.7%.
Growth has been concentrated in capital-expenditure-linked segments such as Welding and Test & Measurement, while consumer-facing and automotive OEM units have lagged. ITW raised its full-year guidance and reinforced shareholder returns with a 7% dividend increase and a new $6 billion repurchase program. Despite the solid fundamentals, recent analyst actions have turned more cautious, including a downgrade to Neutral and several price-target reductions, suggesting the market is debating how much upside remains after the stock's advance.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron maintains hundreds of AI Trading Bots that trade thousands of different tickers, each with its own strategy, timeframe, and performance profile. Because market conditions shift constantly, only a select group of bots earns a place in the curated Trending AI Robots section. This shortlist highlights the strategies best suited to the current environment, spanning swing trading, day trading, and longer-horizon approaches across equities and other assets. Bots in this section vary widely in their statistics, success rates, and the tickers they follow, giving traders a practical way to observe automated decision-making in action. For those evaluating how systematic strategies are treating names like IR and ITW, exploring Trending AI Robots offers a useful reference point.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two names is scale and strategy. ITW generates roughly $4.3 billion in quarterly revenue versus about $2 billion for IR, and it derives growth primarily from organic demand and enterprise efficiency initiatives rather than acquisitions. IR, by comparison, has used M&A as a meaningful growth engine, which adds diversification but also integration risk.
Margin profiles also differ. ITW posts operating margins near 27% and is expanding them, while IR has seen margins contract despite rising revenue. On capital returns, ITW is the more shareholder-friendly name, pairing a growing dividend with a large buyback. Sector exposure adds another trade-off: ITW carries automotive and food-service cyclicality, whereas IR is more sensitive to global industrial capital spending and pricing conditions in China. In terms of market sentiment, IR enjoys more bullish analyst positioning, while ITW faces a more skeptical near-term outlook despite its stronger profitability.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable trend consistency, stability, and relative positioning, Tickeron's AI would likely lean toward ITW on quality and stability grounds, given its record margins, rising guidance, and disciplined capital returns. However, IR presents a more compelling catalyst-and-momentum profile, supported by stronger consensus buy ratings and a higher-growth narrative. The AI's preference would therefore depend on the selected timeframe and strategy: a momentum-oriented bot might favor IR for its upside potential, while a stability-focused bot would more likely favor ITW for its consistency and cash generation. Neither stock presents a clearly superior case across every dimension.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is IR is a Hold and ITW is a Buy.
IR in upward trend: 10-day moving average broke above 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026
The 10-day moving average for IR crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 15, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 13 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 90%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 29, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on IR as a result. In 58 of 86 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for IR just turned positive on October 30, 2026. Looking at past instances where IR's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 33 of 51 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
IR moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +5.63% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where IR advanced for three days, in 213 of 323 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 66%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 168 of 269 cases where IR Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 62%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for IR moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 23 of the 39 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 59%.
The Stochastic Oscillator demonstrated that the ticker has stayed in the overbought zone for 5 days. The longer the ticker stays in the overbought zone, the sooner a price pull-back is expected.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where IR declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 59%.
IR broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 02, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. IR’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 48 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating well-balanced risk and returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock slightly better than average.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 67 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is slightly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (3.164) is normal, around the industry mean (3.805). P/E Ratio (34.152) is within average values for comparable stocks, (36.482). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.619) is also within normal values, averaging (1.879). Dividend Yield (0.001) settles around the average of (0.032) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (3.547) is also within normal values, averaging (186.943).
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 73 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 86 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to worse than average earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
ITW in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026
The 10-day moving average for ITW crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 23, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 10 of 15 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 67%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 13, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on ITW as a result. In 49 of 90 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 54%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for ITW just turned positive on October 08, 2026. Looking at past instances where ITW's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 24 of 46 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 52%.
ITW moved above its 50-day moving average on October 20, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +1.98% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where ITW advanced for three days, in 162 of 324 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 50%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 88 of 217 cases where ITW Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 41%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for ITW moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 39 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 10 of the 39 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 26%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 26 of 61 cases where ITW's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 43%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where ITW declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 41%.
ITW broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 13 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating very strong sales and a profitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 29 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating low risk on high returns. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 74, placing this stock better than average.
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 36 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to consistent earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 45 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. ITW’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 96 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: ITW's P/B Ratio (27.648) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (3.805). P/E Ratio (25.402) is within average values for comparable stocks, (36.482). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (2.543) is also within normal values, averaging (1.879). Dividend Yield (0.024) settles around the average of (0.032) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (4.699) is also within normal values, averaging (186.943).
IR | ITW | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 50 | 50 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 67 Overvalued | 96 Overvalued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 48 | 29 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 73 | 13 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 46 | 45 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 86 | 36 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
IR's Valuation (67) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry is in the same range as ITW (96) in the Industrial Machinery industry. This means that IR’s stock grew similarly to ITW’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's Profit vs Risk Rating (29) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as IR (48) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry. This means that ITW’s stock grew similarly to IR’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's SMR Rating (13) in the Industrial Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for IR (73) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry. This means that ITW’s stock grew somewhat faster than IR’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's Price Growth Rating (45) in the Industrial Machinery industry is in the same range as IR (46) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry. This means that ITW’s stock grew similarly to IR’s over the last 12 months.
ITW's P/E Growth Rating (36) in the Industrial Machinery industry is somewhat better than the same rating for IR (86) in the Industrial Conglomerates industry. This means that ITW’s stock grew somewhat faster than IR’s over the last 12 months.
| IR | ITW | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 26% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 43% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 67% | 3 days ago 54% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 52% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 53% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 50% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 6 days ago 66% | 11 days ago 50% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 59% | 3 days ago 41% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 51% | 3 days ago 50% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 62% | 3 days ago 41% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
IR’s FA Score shows that 0 FA rating(s) are green while ITW’s FA Score has 2 green FA rating(s).
- IR’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
- ITW’s FA Score: 2 green, 3 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
IR’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while ITW’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- IR’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- ITW’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
IR (@Industrial Machinery) experienced а +3.67% price change this week, while ITW (@Industrial Machinery) price change was +0.86% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Industrial Machinery industry was -2.81%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was -15.65%, and the average quarterly price growth was -22.45%.
Reported Earning Dates
IR is expected to report earnings on Feb 18, 2027.
ITW is expected to report earnings on Feb 04, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Industrial Machinery (-2.81% weekly)The industry makes and maintains machines for consumers, the industry, and most other companies. While it has traditionally been categorized as heavy industry, some smaller companies are also branching into the light category. The industry is pivotal in providing the equipment for production in businesses like agriculture, mining, industry and construction, gas, electricity and water utilities. It also supplies supporting equipment for almost all sectors of the economy, such as equipment for heating, and air conditioning of buildings. Illinois Tool Works Inc., Parker-Hannifin Corporation and Rockwell Automation Inc are some of the major U.S. companies operating in this industry.
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ITW and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, ITW has been closely correlated with IR. These tickers have moved in lockstep 74% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if ITW jumps, then IR could also see price increases.