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KMX vs LAD
CarMax (KMX) vs Lithia Motors (LAD) Earnings Preview: Q4 Trends and Analyst Expectations
Key Takeaways
- CarMax (KMX) reports Q4 fiscal 2026 earnings on April 14, with consensus EPS at $0.22 and revenue at $5.71 billion, amid expectations of softer margins but improved sales trends.
- Lithia Motors (LAD) schedules Q1 2026 earnings for April 29, targeting EPS of $7.06 and $9.24 billion in revenue, building on recent record annual revenue of $37.63 billion.
- Both firms face used vehicle market pressures, but KMX's CarMax Auto Finance (CAF) income rose 9.3% in Q3, while LAD showed strength in aftersales and used retail units.
- KMX Q3 EPS beat estimates at $0.43 vs. $0.32 expected; LAD Q4 2025 adjusted EPS missed at $6.74 vs. $8.10.
- Comparable market caps around $6-7 billion highlight similar scale, with LAD generating higher TTM revenue of $37.63 billion vs. KMX's $27.83 billion.
- Investor focus on unit volumes, gross margins per unit, and macroeconomic factors like interest rates and vehicle affordability.
Earnings Context and Why This Comparison Matters
CarMax (KMX) and Lithia Motors (LAD) operate in the competitive automotive retail sector, with KMX specializing in used vehicles through a no-haggle model and LAD as a diversified dealership group handling new, used, and aftersales services. Earnings reports provide critical insights into unit sales trends, inventory management, and financing performance amid high interest rates and softening demand. This comparison matters as both navigate similar headwinds—used vehicle depreciation and affordability challenges—while offering distinct exposure: KMX's financing arm versus LAD's acquisition-driven growth.
CarMax Focus
CarMax (KMX), with a fiscal year ending February 28, will release Q4 fiscal 2026 results (ended February 28, 2026) on April 14 before market open, followed by a 9:00 a.m. ET conference call. Analysts project EPS of $0.22 (11 estimates) and revenue of $5.71 billion (14 estimates). In Q3 fiscal 2026 (ended November 30, 2025), KMX reported revenue of $5.79 billion (down 6.9% year-over-year), EPS of $0.43 (beating $0.32 consensus), and net income of $62.2 million. Retail used units fell 8.0% to 169,557, with comparable store sales down 9.0%, but gross profit per retail unit held at $2,235 and CAF income rose 9.3% to $174.7 million. Management anticipates Q4 sales improvements via pricing and marketing, targeting at least $150 million in SG&A (selling, general, and administrative expenses) savings by fiscal 2027 end.
Lithia Motors Context
Lithia Motors (LAD), with a calendar fiscal year, announced Q1 2026 earnings for April 29 before market open, with a 10:00 a.m. ET call. Consensus calls for EPS of $7.06 (12 analysts) and revenue of $9.24 billion (11 analysts). In Q4 2025 (ended December 31, 2025), LAD posted record quarterly revenue of $9.20 billion (up 0.3%) and adjusted EPS of $6.74 (missing $8.10 estimate), with full-year revenue hitting $37.63 billion (up 4.0%). New vehicle units dropped 8.1% to 97,424, but used retail units rose 4.8% to 99,905, and aftersales revenue climbed 11.4%. Same-store used sales grew 6.1%, underscoring resilience in service revenue amid new vehicle margin pressures.
Head-to-Head Earnings and Market Comparison
CarMax (KMX) and Lithia Motors (LAD) show divergent earnings trajectories: KMX beat Q3 estimates despite volume declines, leveraging CAF stability, while LAD missed Q4 EPS but set revenue records via acquisitions and aftersales. Growth drivers include LAD's M&A (mergers and acquisitions) expansion (464 locations) versus KMX's operational efficiencies and omnichannel sales. Risks are shared—elevated APR (annual percentage rate) impacting affordability, inventory appraisal losses—but LAD faces higher new vehicle exposure. Sentiment favors KMX's beat history (recent 36% surprise) over LAD's misses, though LAD's scale ($37.63B TTM revenue vs. $27.83B) supports long-term positioning.
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Tickeron AI Verdict
Tickeron AI currently favors CarMax (KMX) with a 60% probability edge over Lithia Motors (LAD), citing superior recent earnings beats, stable CAF income, and cost discipline amid comparable market caps and sector risks.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer. Disclaimers and Limitations
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is KMX is a StrongBuy and LAD is a StrongBuy.
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is undervalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
KMX’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green whileLAD’s FA Score has 0 green FA rating(s).
- KMX’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- LAD’s FA Score: 0 green, 5 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
KMX’s TA Score shows that 5 TA indicator(s) are bullish while LAD’s TA Score has 4 bullish TA indicator(s).
- KMX’s TA Score: 5 bullish, 4 bearish.
- LAD’s TA Score: 4 bullish, 5 bearish.
Price Growth
KMX (@Automotive Aftermarket) experienced а +8.72% price change this week, while LAD (@Automotive Aftermarket) price change was +8.50% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Automotive Aftermarket industry was +1.66%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +1.01%, and the average quarterly price growth was -20.59%.
Reported Earning Dates
KMX is expected to report earnings on Jun 17, 2026.
LAD is expected to report earnings on Jul 22, 2026.
Industries' Descriptions
@Automotive Aftermarket (+1.66% weekly)The Automotive Aftermarket consists of the manufacturing, remanufacturing, distribution, retailing, and installation of vehicle parts and accessories, after the sale of the automobile by the original equipment manufacturer (OEM) to the consumer. The aftermarket parts many not be manufactured by the OEM. According to a Technavio study, the US automotive parts aftermarket size is estimated to grow by USD 24.33 billion during 2018-2022 (CAGR 3%). Like many other industries, the automotive aftermarket is also being intensely penetrated by the digital boom. The online auto parts sales market is predicted to exceed $13B by 2020 (according to a study by Mirakl).
| KMX | LAD | KMX / LAD | |
| Capitalization | 7.27B | 7.15B | 102% |
| EBITDA | 1.61B | 2.18B | 74% |
| Gain YTD | 32.660 | -5.322 | -614% |
| P/E Ratio | 30.51 | 10.93 | 279% |
| Revenue | 25.9B | 37.7B | 69% |
| Total Cash | 123M | 421M | 29% |
| Total Debt | 18.5B | 16.1B | 115% |
KMX | LAD | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 44 | 38 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 64 Fair valued | 49 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 100 | 100 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 88 | 69 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 40 | 47 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 20 | 48 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 90 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
LAD's Valuation (49) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as KMX (64). This means that LAD’s stock grew similarly to KMX’s over the last 12 months.
LAD's Profit vs Risk Rating (100) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as KMX (100). This means that LAD’s stock grew similarly to KMX’s over the last 12 months.
LAD's SMR Rating (69) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as KMX (88). This means that LAD’s stock grew similarly to KMX’s over the last 12 months.
KMX's Price Growth Rating (40) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as LAD (47). This means that KMX’s stock grew similarly to LAD’s over the last 12 months.
KMX's P/E Growth Rating (20) in the Specialty Stores industry is in the same range as LAD (48). This means that KMX’s stock grew similarly to LAD’s over the last 12 months.
| KMX | LAD | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 75% | 3 days ago 71% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 73% | 3 days ago 68% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 73% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 65% | 3 days ago 71% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 71% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 64% | 3 days ago 64% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 4 days ago 68% | 3 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | N/A | 10 days ago 71% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 76% | 3 days ago 65% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 3 days ago 63% | 3 days ago 65% |
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KMX and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, KMX has been loosely correlated with CPRT. These tickers have moved in lockstep 58% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is some statistical probability that if KMX jumps, then CPRT could also see price increases.
| Ticker / NAME | Correlation To KMX | 1D Price Change % | ||
|---|---|---|---|---|
| KMX | 100% | -0.60% | ||
| CPRT - KMX | 58% Loosely correlated | -1.00% | ||
| LAD - KMX | 53% Loosely correlated | +0.23% | ||
| FND - KMX | 52% Loosely correlated | -0.80% | ||
| HZO - KMX | 52% Loosely correlated | +1.13% | ||
| HNST - KMX | 52% Loosely correlated | +1.97% | ||
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LAD and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, LAD has been closely correlated with ABG. These tickers have moved in lockstep 72% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if LAD jumps, then ABG could also see price increases.