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LEN vs MTH
Which Stock Would AI Choose? Lennar Corporation (LEN) vs. Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) Stock Comparison
Key Takeaways
- Both LEN and MTH are U.S. homebuilders facing the same affordability and mortgage-rate headwinds, yet they diverge sharply in scale, diversification, and near-term momentum.
- LEN brings a larger, more diversified model—including financial services, multifamily, and technology investments—while MTH is a more focused, entry-level-leaning builder concentrated in the Sun Belt.
- Recent earnings and balance-sheet positioning favor LEN, whose lower leverage and visible institutional accumulation contrast with MTH's guidance withdrawal and earnings miss.
- Tickeron AI Verdict: LEN is the current AI-favored ticker of the two, based on balance-sheet strength, business diversification, and relative stability.
- For deeper context, explore LEN Major News and LEN Today's Price Move, as well as MTH Major News and MTH Today's Price Move.
- To see how automated systems are navigating this market in real time, explore Trending AI Robots.
Introduction
Lennar Corporation (LEN) and Meritage Homes Corporation (MTH) are two well-known names in U.S. residential construction, but they operate at very different points on the homebuilder spectrum. This stock comparison is most relevant for investors weighing a large-cap, diversified builder against a mid-cap, entry-level specialist—and for traders assessing which name offers more consistent relative performance in a softening housing market. With mortgage rates elevated and affordability strained, the two stocks offer a useful contrast in market positioning, capital discipline, and how each company is managing the current downcycle.
LEN Overview and Recent Performance
LEN is one of the nation's largest homebuilders, founded in 1954 and based in Miami, Florida. Beyond its core homebuilding operations, Lennar generates revenue through a financial-services segment (mortgage, title, and closing services), a multifamily rental development business, and technology investments under its LENX arm. This diversification gives the company multiple earnings streams beyond home sales alone.
In recent weeks, LEN shares have traded well below their 52-week high, reflecting a sector-wide retreat as higher mortgage rates and increased sales incentives compressed home-selling gross margins. The company has reported lower revenue and thinner margins compared with a year earlier, while continuing to emphasize cost discipline and a "production-first" operating strategy. A notable development has been continued accumulation of the stock by Berkshire Hathaway, which has built a meaningful ownership stake—a signal that has drawn attention to the company's scale and balance-sheet strength. With a price-to-earnings (P/E) ratio in the mid-teens, a dividend yield around 2.3%, and a debt-to-capital ratio below 20%, LEN maintains a comparatively conservative financial profile.
MTH Overview and Recent Performance
MTH, Meritage Homes, was founded in 1985 and is headquartered in Scottsdale, Arizona. As the fifth-largest U.S. homebuilder, it specializes in single-family attached and detached homes, with a strong tilt toward entry-level and first-time move-up buyers concentrated across Sun Belt markets such as Texas, Florida, and Arizona. The company is known for its quick-close strategy and energy-efficient building standards.
In recent market activity, MTH has faced more visible near-term pressure. Its most recent quarterly report showed a double-digit decline in revenue that came in below consensus estimates, alongside lower adjusted earnings per share. Management withdrew its forward guidance, citing an unpredictable demand environment, which added to investor uncertainty. Elevated mortgage rates have increased incentive usage and pressured margins, while land investment has been pulled back sharply to preserve liquidity. On the positive side, MTH maintains a solid balance sheet with no borrowings on its revolving credit facility, a net debt-to-capital ratio below 20%, and a dividend yield near 3%. Its book value per share has continued to grow year over year.
Trending AI Robots
Tickeron operates hundreds of AI trading bots that collectively trade thousands of different tickers, each built with its own trading style, strategy, timeframe, performance record, and set of covered securities. Because no single approach suits every market, Tickeron curates only the most promising and best-suited strategies into its Trending AI Robots section. These featured bots are selected based on their alignment with current market conditions, offering traders a focused shortlist of automated strategies rather than an unmanageable catalog. The page lets investors compare bots by recent performance, win rate, and trade frequency, making it a practical starting point for those interested in systematic, data-driven approaches to stocks like LEN and MTH. Explore Trending AI Robots to see which strategies are currently leading the market.
Head-to-Head Comparison
The clearest contrast between these two stocks is scale and diversification. LEN generates roughly six times the revenue of MTH and operates across multiple segments, which can smooth out earnings through the housing cycle. MTH, by comparison, is a purer play on entry-level homebuilding, offering more direct exposure to affordability trends in the Sun Belt but fewer offsetting revenue streams.
Growth drivers also differ. MTH is expanding its community count and shifting toward first-time move-up product, positioning for recovery when demand stabilizes. LEN leans on its financial-services and multifamily businesses alongside core homebuilding. On risk, MTH's withdrawn guidance and recent earnings miss introduce more near-term uncertainty, while LEN's lower leverage and external institutional support provide a steadier sentiment backdrop. Valuation is a trade-off: MTH trades at a lower price-to-book and offers a higher dividend yield, while LEN carries a premium for its diversification and scale.
Tickeron AI Verdict
Based on observable factors such as balance-sheet strength, business diversification, and relative stability, Tickeron's AI would currently lean toward LEN as the more favored of the two tickers. While both companies face a challenging affordability environment, LEN's lower debt-to-capital ratio, multiple earnings streams, and ongoing institutional accumulation provide steadier catalysts and trend consistency. MTH offers an attractive valuation and a higher dividend yield, but its guidance withdrawal and earnings shortfall introduce greater near-term volatility. The AI's probabilistic read therefore tilts toward LEN, with the understanding that both names remain sensitive to mortgage-rate movements and broader housing demand.
Disclaimer
The information on this webpage is provided for general informational and educational purposes only and is not intended as investment advice, a recommendation to purchase or sell any security, or an offer or solicitation related to investments. It does not consider your personal financial situation, goals, or risk profile, and all investing carries inherent risks, including the possibility of losing your entire investment. For more details, please review our full disclaimer.
To compare these two companies we present long-term analysis, their fundamental ratings and make comparative short-term technical analysis which are presented below. The conclusion is LEN is a StrongBuy and MTH is a Hold.
LEN in upward trend: 10-day moving average moved above 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026
The 10-day moving average for LEN crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on October 28, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 12 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 86%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 19, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on LEN as a result. In 64 of 85 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 75%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for LEN just turned positive on October 19, 2026. Looking at past instances where LEN's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 38 of 53 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 72%.
LEN moved above its 50-day moving average on October 22, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
Following a +6.51% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where LEN advanced for three days, in 203 of 313 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 65%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 144 of 203 cases where LEN Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 71%.
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for LEN moved out of overbought territory on November 03, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 31 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 19 of the 31 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 61%.
The Stochastic Oscillator may be shifting from an upward trend to a downward trend. In 46 of 70 cases where LEN's Stochastic Oscillator exited the overbought zone, the price fell further within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 66%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where LEN declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 67%.
LEN broke above its upper Bollinger Band on October 22, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 27 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 49 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. LEN’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 78 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 96 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is significantly overvalued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.989) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (13.909) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). LEN's Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (11.302) is very high in comparison to the industry average of (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.023) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.594) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 97 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. LEN’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock worse than average.
MTH saw its Stochastic Oscillator peaks and leaves the overbought zone
The Stochastic Oscillator for MTH moved out of overbought territory on November 09, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock and investors may want to consider selling or taking a defensive position. A.I.dvisor looked at 57 similar instances where the indicator exited the overbought zone. In 46 of the 57 cases the stock moved lower. This puts the odds of a downward move at 81%.
Technical Analysis (Indicators)
Bearish Trend Analysis
The 10-day RSI Indicator for MTH moved out of overbought territory on November 05, 2026. This could be a bearish sign for the stock. Traders may want to consider selling the stock or buying put options. Tickeron's A.I.dvisor looked at 41 similar instances where the indicator moved out of overbought territory. In 30 of the 41 cases, the stock moved lower in the following days. This puts the odds of a move lower at 73%.
Following a 3-day decline, the stock is projected to fall further. Considering past instances where MTH declined for three days, the price rose further in 50 of 62 cases within the following month. The odds of a continued downward trend are 71%.
MTH broke above its upper Bollinger Band on November 04, 2026. This could be a sign that the stock is set to drop as the stock moves back below the upper band and toward the middle band. You may want to consider selling the stock or exploring put options.
Bullish Trend Analysis
The Momentum Indicator moved above the 0 level on October 22, 2026. You may want to consider a long position or call options on MTH as a result. In 49 of 81 past instances where the momentum indicator moved above 0, the stock continued to climb. The odds of a continued upward trend are 60%.
The Moving Average Convergence Divergence (MACD) for MTH just turned positive on October 20, 2026. Looking at past instances where MTH's MACD turned positive, the stock continued to rise in 32 of 52 cases over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 62%.
MTH moved above its 50-day moving average on October 29, 2026 date and that indicates a change from a downward trend to an upward trend.
The 10-day moving average for MTH crossed bullishly above the 50-day moving average on November 03, 2026. This indicates that the trend has shifted higher and could be considered a buy signal. In 11 of 14 past instances when the 10-day crossed above the 50-day, the stock continued to move higher over the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 79%.
Following a +8.21% 3-day Advance, the price is estimated to grow further. Considering data from situations where MTH advanced for three days, in 200 of 291 cases, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued upward trend are 69%.
The Aroon Indicator entered an Uptrend today. In 132 of 206 cases where MTH Aroon's Indicator entered an Uptrend, the price rose further within the following month. The odds of a continued Uptrend are 64%.
Fundamental Analysis (Ratings)
The Tickeron PE Growth Rating for this company is 9 (best 1 - 100 worst), pointing to outstanding earnings growth. The PE Growth rating is based on a comparative analysis of stock PE ratio increase over the last 12 months compared against S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Valuation Rating of 45 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. This rating compares market capitalization estimated by our proprietary formula with the current market capitalization. This rating is based on the following metrics, as compared to industry averages: P/B Ratio (0.877) is normal, around the industry mean (1.910). P/E Ratio (14.089) is within average values for comparable stocks, (10.592). Projected Growth (PEG Ratio) (0.090) is also within normal values, averaging (1.217). Dividend Yield (0.028) settles around the average of (0.019) among similar stocks. P/S Ratio (0.814) is also within normal values, averaging (24.205).
The Tickeron Price Growth Rating for this company is 46 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating steady price growth. MTH’s price grows at a higher rate over the last 12 months as compared to S&P 500 index constituents.
The Tickeron Seasonality Score of 50 (best 1 - 100 worst) indicates that the company is fair valued in the industry. The Tickeron Seasonality score describes the variance of predictable price changes around the same period every calendar year. These changes can be tied to a specific month, quarter, holiday or vacation period, as well as a meteorological or growing season.
The Tickeron Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for this company is 70 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating that the returns do not compensate for the risks. MTH’s unstable profits reported over time resulted in significant Drawdowns within these last five years. A stable profit reduces stock drawdown and volatility. The average Profit vs. Risk Rating rating for the industry is 68, placing this stock worse than average.
The Tickeron SMR rating for this company is 80 (best 1 - 100 worst), indicating weak sales and an unprofitable business model. SMR (Sales, Margin, Return on Equity) rating is based on comparative analysis of weighted Sales, Income Margin and Return on Equity values compared against S&P 500 index constituents. The weighted SMR value is a proprietary formula developed by Tickeron and represents an overall profitability measure for a stock.
LEN | MTH | ||
|---|---|---|---|
OUTLOOK RATING 1..100 | 28 | 74 | |
VALUATION overvalued / fair valued / undervalued 1..100 | 96 Overvalued | 45 Fair valued | |
PROFIT vs RISK RATING 1..100 | 97 | 70 | |
SMR RATING 1..100 | 78 | 80 | |
PRICE GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 49 | 46 | |
P/E GROWTH RATING 1..100 | 27 | 9 | |
SEASONALITY SCORE 1..100 | 50 | 50 |
Tickeron ratings are formulated such that a rating of 1 designates the most successful stocks in a given industry, while a rating of 100 points to the least successful stocks for that industry.
MTH's Valuation (45) in the Homebuilding industry is somewhat better than the same rating for LEN (96). This means that MTH’s stock grew somewhat faster than LEN’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's Profit vs Risk Rating (70) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as LEN (97). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to LEN’s over the last 12 months.
LEN's SMR Rating (78) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as MTH (80). This means that LEN’s stock grew similarly to MTH’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's Price Growth Rating (46) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as LEN (49). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to LEN’s over the last 12 months.
MTH's P/E Growth Rating (9) in the Homebuilding industry is in the same range as LEN (27). This means that MTH’s stock grew similarly to LEN’s over the last 12 months.
| LEN | MTH | |
|---|---|---|
| RSI ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 61% | 1 day ago 73% |
| Stochastic ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 66% | 1 day ago 81% |
| Momentum ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 75% | 1 day ago 60% |
| MACD ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 72% | 1 day ago 62% |
| TrendWeek ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 69% | 1 day ago 72% |
| TrendMonth ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 68% | 1 day ago 67% |
| Advances ODDS (%) | 10 days ago 65% | 20 days ago 69% |
| Declines ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 67% | 1 day ago 71% |
| BollingerBands ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 63% | 1 day ago 70% |
| Aroon ODDS (%) | 1 day ago 71% | 1 day ago 64% |
Long-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a long-term outlook for a ticker by using Fundamental Analysis (FA) ratings. The rating of 1 to 100, where 1 is best and 100 is worst, is divided into thirds. The first third (a green rating of 1-33) indicates that the ticker is undervalued; the second third (a grey number between 34 and 66) means that the ticker is valued fairly; and the last third (red number of 67 to 100) reflects that the ticker is overvalued. We use an FA Score to show how many ratings show the ticker to be undervalued (green) or overvalued (red).
LEN’s FA Score shows that 1 FA rating(s) are green while MTH’s FA Score has 1 green FA rating(s).
- LEN’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
- MTH’s FA Score: 1 green, 4 red.
Short-Term Analysis
It is best to consider a short-term outlook for a ticker by using Technical Analysis (TA) indicators. We use Odds of Success as the percentage of outcomes which confirm successful trade signals in the past.
If the Odds of Success (the likelihood of the continuation of a trend) for each indicator are greater than 50%, then the generated signal is confirmed. A green percentage from 90% to 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bullish trend. A red percentage from 90% - 51% indicates that the ticker is in a bearish trend. All grey percentages are below 50% and are considered not to confirm the trend signal.
LEN’s TA Score shows that 6 TA indicator(s) are bullish while MTH’s TA Score has 6 bullish TA indicator(s).
- LEN’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
- MTH’s TA Score: 6 bullish, 4 bearish.
Price Growth
LEN (@Homebuilding) experienced а -6.36% price change this week, while MTH (@Homebuilding) price change was -9.22% for the same time period.
The average weekly price growth across all stocks in the @Homebuilding industry was -6.38%. For the same industry, the average monthly price growth was +5.61%, and the average quarterly price growth was +10.34%.
Reported Earning Dates
LEN is expected to report earnings on Dec 15, 2026.
MTH is expected to report earnings on Feb 03, 2027.
Industries' Descriptions
@Homebuilding (-6.38% weekly)Homebuilding includes companies residential home construction companies, renovators and repair firms. The companies may be building single-family or multifamily homes, condominiums or mobile homes. Over the five years to 2019, the Home Builders industry is estimated to have grown at an annualized rate of 2.5% to reach $89.4 billion, (including expected growth of 2.6% in 2019), according to a study by IbisWorld. After having suffered one of its worst crises a decade ago during the last macroeconomic recession–which had much of its origins in U.S. real estate – the homebuilding industry has been recovering steadily so far. Higher disposable incomes and improving economic activity have bolstered consumers’ purchases of homes. While revenue of the Home Builders industry remains well below its prerecession high, demand growth estimates show promise.
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MTH and
Correlation & Price change
A.I.dvisor indicates that over the last year, MTH has been closely correlated with PHM. These tickers have moved in lockstep 90% of the time. This A.I.-generated data suggests there is a high statistical probability that if MTH jumps, then PHM could also see price increases.
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